Member Info for rickyroman

….worth having a read for an up to date analysis of the major construction projects in Bangladesh.
Obviously Covid-19 has had an impact on supplies coming in, workers clearing off...normal Bangladesh stuff. The Chinese construction companies do tend to take these problems in their stride and when they have to slow or stop, are focussed on planning the resumption of the work asap. The article details some of the huge costs and Hasina's pet project Rooppur is just a money pit - probably never be commissioned.
Another article details a local Awami League leader on the 'hey diddle-diddle'
He nicked 67 bags of rice destined for the poor of the neighbourhood. How low can you get - right dodgy looking character, he got banged up though. Good.

...c'mon chaps keep up....
Gooner knows what the question was.
It was about whether or not the 200,000 options for Ralf were forward sold to take advantage of the spike in the SP.
I emailed the company to ask, the FD replied very courteously and categorically said the answer was No.
Discussion closed - great news for us as £22K is £22K and I would have made a 'progress check' prior to making the purchase...…...I guess Ralf did too.

Gentlemen - I have just had a reply and the answer is a definitive NO.
So, that's even more interesting going into the weekend.
We wait...….

Stopped for lunch to see…..APF is off again with his theories and that GCM is about to fall into the abyss.
Waiting in the wings will be Polo, ready to pounce and snap up the assets (a questionable piece of paper)
Okay 'Brains' - then why is the Polo SP a measly 2p ?

...great choice Smokie - nothing like a bit of Lindsey, Stevie et al on a Friday morning...

….excellent Alexander, great to have some knowledgeable input.
I guess I was more hopeful of a 12-15% carried interest, with 100% of costs carried by Chinese.
He's quite slick Michael Tang, so never expect the obvious.
Cheers RR

...the big question is - does he still (effectively) have the shares or have they been forward sold ? Lets hope he still has them. Encouraging to see total shares issued 112,000,000 ,and with positions allocated, an air of normality has been established.

I have just emailed Keith Fulton to find out what happened to Ralf's options and whether they were they forward sold into the market last week
I have to admit to being a little baffled by the SP rise and felt it was nothing to do with 'pump and dump' and more a leak of (potentially) significant information.
But, what if it was to enable 11p options to be sold at 25p.....
Conspiracy theory ?? makes you wonder. Hopefully, I will receive a reply.

...is always banging on about Geoffrey Chaucer.
Phulbari would like him exhumed and be part of the presentation to the GOB.
He says the fact that Chaucer has been dead for over 600 years is irrelevant and could be used as a metaphor for how long we have been waiting for approval.
He also reckons that a quick recital of the Millers Tale (the bawdy one) will probably go down a treat with the audience....

….Jay - there is a great line sung by Kate Bush on Peter Gabriel's album So.-
'You worry too much, its gonna be alright.'
Findley-Solohuge-Chinaman what ever his latest name is, has his own agenda, He seems to think he is some super sleuth, trotting out the same distorted mantra month in month out.. GCM by his calculations should have an SP of 3p and a billion shares in circulation.
AIM is full of train-crash stories, but what is the alternative to Michael Tang and his board. They have certain fiduciary duties to stop them pillaging the company and to work in the best interests of the company and its shareholders.
We are all disappointed by the latest setback, but was there any viable option than to give MT and PowerChina/ Non-ferrous a chance to give it their best shot.
No, there wasn't and there currently isn't.
Don't forget, as Kate sang - 'we're gonna be alright'
Ignore the fool, he's not that smart.

….six months.
With $3 billion of cancelled RMG orders, one million workers laid off and the slow decision making process in Bangladesh. Michael Tang and his Chinese team have given themselves a wide margin of time.
They obviously feel they cannot put together the final structure of a deal and then present it in three months.
Energy security may become a factor in our favour, but for now I am going to put this on the back-burner and re-visit late summer.
The world has plenty of challenges ahead and Bangladesh has not had a serious outbreak of Covid-19 so far - a further wait for GCM and its Chinese partners is unfortunately, inevitable.
Its a fantastic project, a good team with high-level engineering and mining skills - we'll get there in the end.

…..things not looking too good for South East Asia. The RMG business which makes up 90% of Bangladesh exports is getting hammered. I saw last week that New Look was stopping the payment of suppliers and telling them to collect their goods, USA demanding 30% reduction in prices and demand falling off a cliff in lockdown.
This has to be a 'crossroads' moment for Bangladesh, its economists will tell Hasina that growth will probably fall from 8% to 1-2% and they cannot afford the cost of importing of coal, gas and fuel oil.
Is this the moment China steps forward, says this is the plan and we are going to fund it - Phulbari coal, state of the art power generation plants and a rail network to feed the other power plants currently under construction.
Its 50 / 50 - she could select reverse gear and say 'no more projects' or she could see this as one way to pull Bangladesh out of the perfect storm heading their way.
The job adverts are encouraging - sounds like some planning has been done.

……..to get hanged.
Abdul Majed was on the run for twenty five years and it was forty five years since the plot and assassination of Hasina's father.
What does he do ?.... goes back to Dhaka, asks for clemency and is hanged five days later.
Not sure that was the smartest thing to do.

Bangladesh imposed lockdown on a million Rohingyas in Coxes Bazar - no-one allowed in or out. This is a camp for Muslims fleeing Myanmar.
What a nightmare and you would think Hasina would put pressure on the Chinese government 'to have a word' with the Burmese generals or whoever is in charge - not Aung San, she's already up for genocide. Million refugees, poor medical support, dire sanitation and poverty.....

Marv - what I envisage is GCM disappears via a buyout, but Polo becomes part of the consortium with a 10-15% holding.
This allows Michael Tang to exit with a nice payday, but still actively involved in the project, via his Polo holding.
As you mention, he has put a lot of effort in achieving a satisfactory outcome and he will not let it go lightly.
We need a Ron Dennis / McLaren & Qatar's scenario - okay Ron, you need to go and this amount of $$$ is on the table. Money talks - I'm off.

...by any measure.
I have this nagging feeling that GCM's days are numbered and that a far more powerful consortium is being assembled with Government representation via Petrobangla.
$13-14 billion is a colossal sum and little GCM does not fit in to the scheme of things. It's the valuation which is going to b the problem.
Bees with his £2-3 could be fairly near the mark.
All to play for.....

…….is it or not,
After twelve years+, I am truly tired of GCM and the roller-coaster ride.
Fantastic if we get confirmation that the project is going ahead, but what happens if we get the go-ahead and the SP only rises to say 40p.
ie. the market is not impressed.
That would be a nightmare scenario as we would be stuck in this share for another 4-5 years to see real value finally apportioned to it.
On a positive note, Hasina & other influential Banglas would love to see the back of GCM so hopefully Michael Tang can flog the lot. I've always wanted to re-enact the final scene from Midnight Express when Brad Davis escapes the prison and as he's walking away leaps up and punches the sky - that's gonna be me, leaving GCM behind. !!

…. advising clients this is 'a once in a lifetime opportunity to make super, normal returns'.
I have one thing to say DISGRACEFUL.
The Leader of the House who retains a 15% holding in the Inv Co. and took a one million pound divi last year.
I have carefully constructed this post - be interesting to see how long it lasts before the thought police arrive.

crass was the adjective I used to describe the General Practitioner's post, not yours.

….thought what he said was crass, but sounds like its one to the General Practitioner...….as for the tick-ups, that was probably s0l0huge just winding people up.
Discussion closed.