Member Info for rickyroman

...if there is any accuracy / veracity in Shenhua, then that is real news. Shenhua is the kind of company needed in Bangla to do the mining.….
we will see if it is another bit of fake news...or something more substantial.

...no miner has been appointed and probably 90% of those Michael Tang has approached have said no - not interested.

Nothing has been approved by the GOB, GCM has no money and the mine site is a heavily populated area producing foodstuff. This is still an uphill struggle and we need confirmation that the Phulbari project is part of the B&R Initiative as an imperative.

We are months and months away from real progress....soundbites are simply soundbites.

….spot on with 150p, that's exactly the figure I have always used in the event of an SOD approval.

The lead times for this project are enormous, particularly the re-location of the Phulbari and neighbouring residents. I don't know what the numbers are, but we must be looking at 40-50,000.

This is Bangla-la-la land, they are a volatile lot once they get on WhatsApp.....a bit of rioting could stall this for months. One hope is that Michael Tang plays a blinder and sells the lot complete with SOD sign-off.

150p would suit me fine..

bees, you find some good articles but the recurrent theme with Bangla is just to talk. I cannot think of one project which has been brought to completion, the Padma bridge was first started 20 years ago and Rampal in 2013.

Instead of focussing on their major partner China, Hasina and her government are actively involved with the Indians (Adani - the worst joint-venture partner they could involve) and now the Indo-Pacific Forum discussions and trying to entice the US on board.

A year ago I thought we might see the excavators on site in the autumn, I'm now going to make that the autumn of 2020. This flip-flopping between LNG, then imported coal, then drilling for gas / oil in the Bay of Bengal....its a joke, they haven't a clue. Importing coal to Bara was indicative of their hopeless planning - why is the mine not up and running at improved capacity, not idle.

We are 24p because no-one in the investment world believes this will ever happen The finances are too vague, an international miner ??? and the fact that the ownership with PowerChina is 20/80 _ would have much preferred 50 /50 JV.

Be back in 6 months...…..signed off by Hasina by then......who knows, but not holding my breath.

...Nasrul Hamid is NOT in the press release photo at the Blu Radisson - there is not even a cardboard cut-out of him.
Do you seriously believe the twaddle posted on here - take more note of what he said yesterday.
Hasina's right hand man at the GCM - PowerChina JV announcement.....jeez....do some research.

...we've both been here a very long time, but I find the timing and wording of the announcement to be a little concerning. In our favour, we know the Banglas have no skill sets when it comes to mining and all funding would have to come from China.

...as I said earlier in the month - but this is Bangladesh at its duplicitous best;
Is this a warning shot across our bows, just days before we go to the GOB with a proposal to mine Phulbari ?

'The coalmines will not be leased out to any foreign or local private sector company or their joint venture (JV) for exploration.' is what Nasrul Hamid said. He is Hasina's mouthpiece.

Is this a prelude to nationalisation and the coalfield agreement gets torn up with the message 'sue us then'

Phulbari is the jewel in the crown of the five coalfields in terms of studies carried out, depth of seams and ability to mine opencast as opposed to underground tunnelling. I believe the Australian report suggested recovery rates of 85%. If you want to start mining coal, this is the one to mine and it runs into the current mine at Barakuparia at the northern end.

If anyone wonders why we are 28p, then this kind of risk scenario is one of the reasons why.

..Altube - why this obsession with Dyani selling. Any dip with the SP and Dyani is blamed or the MMs are manipulating.the stock price.

The fact is that today the company and its share price took a mauling because someone dumped nearly 2% of the issued shares. Why would Dyani wait until the price was languishing at 27p to sell, when they were getting 64p last week.

They were large tranches of shares today and if there is a repeat tomorrow then this will head back towards the teens. I'm not comfortable until we know who was behind those sells.

Great news last week, we should have been able to hold 40p. Someone is spooked or desperate for cash.

GCM website - irrelevant & now sorted.
Nomad - irrelevant to share price & will be sorted .

Presentation to GOB - we will know AFTER the event. Very unlikely it will involve Hasina, more likely it will be headed up by Nasrul Hamid, who will then report back to her.

Time honoured fashion will mean another feasibility study, impact assessment of effect on indigenous people (ie. those who currently live there). Then await result of the various committees and we are probably looking at late summer / early autumn.

So, look at this share as a very long-term investment. Meeting with the GOB may not create a 'ramper spike'. GCM will invariably now drift into the twenties which will present some buying opportunities. Next big spike will be when approval is given c. six months. After that - re-housing, compensation etc....first Komatsu excavators in c. late 2020.

Unless Michael Tang can get approval for the project and flog the lot.....now that would be a result.

In all cases, the sponsor company (ie GCM) has to raise funds to pay for its share of the equity. I think this is rather stating the obvious and I cannot imagine that Michael Tang and team from PowerChina have not discussed this in great depth.

I was surprised that the JV was a 80-20% split and would have preferred a 50/50 basis to help under-pin the project finance. However, any lender is going to require substantial collateral to advance $2 billion and that's going to be the mine and power generation plant(s).

You may be aware of the African Minerals debacle, where Shandong Iron & Steel (the minority partner) stepped in and effectively 'stole' the company due to an extremely biased and poorly constructed loan agreement and an unhelpful judgement in Hong Kong. The trigger was pulled when operating cash was retained by Shandong and African Minerals were unable to pay the loan, a loan secured against all the fixed assets inc. the mine. Shandong Iron and Steel got the mine - Shareholders lost everything.

Michael Tang is a barrister and he will be well aware of clauses like this. However, it's possible he has played a 'blinder' and actively wanted an 80/20 split as he has alternative sources of finance lined up. We saw the other evening Mr Anis Khan from The Mutual Bank of Bangladesh was at the press launch and signing. Maybe he will be heading up a consortium of lenders, maybe there are Malaysian investors interested or maybe an IPO.....

Lots to play for and the next challenge is Hasina and her Energy team.

…….I think some people are so clueless they think a company with a mkt capitalisation of £30 million can go into the market and raise $3 billion on a 'rights issue'....and they're listed on AIM.
My hunch is the man from Mutual, not necessarily him, but a consortium of lenders.

Its a dream scenario for a utilities investor - 2 or 3 power stations built bang next door to a high quality, thermal coal mine + a captive consumer market....

...check out the guys at the signing - Anis Khan - Managing Director of the Mutual Bank of Bangladesh, one of the best performing banks in Bangla.
So what;s he doing there ?? Maybe Michael Tang is not just talking to China's Exim bank. Mutual may open up other sources of funding.

That fall this afternoon was overdone and I feel sorry for investors who have had their 'stops' taken out deliberately, that's usual AIM tactics. I think this could be due a re-rate tomorrow, the story is looking too good.

Those quys in the photo were heavyweights, not messers...

...I went straight to the press release and its looking impressive and well thought through. As you say, how are the Bangladesh Government going to turn that down - compelling read.

Also, loved the GCM and PowerChina corporate logos together on the front page,

I was always so wary that this could fail, but now.....it really does look good.

...this is the kind of guy I like to see putting his name to the JVA...….Mr. Ding Zheng Guo, Chairman of PowerChina International Group Limited.

….I'm certainly not known for my optimism in this project, but even I coughed and had a smile at £2 million for access to the licence.
You are absolutely correct about us having no money, no mining skills, no equipment etc....and this puts us on the backfoot straightaway in any negotiations. You may remember that I suggested that Hasina could nationalise the project, strip us of our licence and say **** off with NO two million. Always a possibility.!
However, what we do have is two competing parties CGGC and PowerChina. Its possible they could work in unison to 'acquire' the licence or, its not inconceivable, we could have an element of competition with both parties keen to acquire the lion's share of the coal.

I'm going to summarise now by saying that I think we are okay, negotiations continue and if the whole deal was about to collapse the share price would be tumbling. Michael Tang is in for 160-170p per share, Dyani have a shed-load as payment...….lots of good reasons to keep negotiating, but lets all try and stick to sensible numbers - all out at 200-250p / share.

...trading under WTO rules would be like us going into a 1000 metre race and saying to the opposition...nah 'you lot can have a one lap advantage, 'cos we'll soon catch up'....ha ha ha..we would be the only advanced economy on this planet trading solely under WTO terms - probably take about 7 years to put other deals together.
Tusk has got it dead right....
Now time to fire up the JCB on this frosty morning and do some work on the build. Catch up later.

….not a lot by the looks of things, but pleasantly surprised that we finished at 37.5p
Interesting characters appeared - stutoad weren't you around when Imin was on this board.
Mate, you can't be serious....I haven't stopped laughing since reading your post 'sprout' …..no-one can be that bad.
Either you are an Oxford don and having a wind-up, or you need to get onto Tower Hamlets education dept and ask for a refund.
Hang on in there though - we're all going to get rich.....or is that riche cos' I'm in France......

….just logged in and seen endless posts from you. Do you have some involuntary shaking disease so that you start typing for no reason ?
Maybe take a day off tomorrow and go for a walk in the park...…..

..you can't issue an RNS stating 'We know no reason for the shareprice movement' - when you do.

I'm now beginning to think of the lack of communication, as a positive.

Always possible things could crash...….that's GCM......but a JVA was scheduled and the price continues to move slowly north.

the RNS which says 'We know no reason for the blah blah blah...…

Lots of small orders / buys so could just be a 'spike' for now, based on no real substance OR as I suggested on Saturday, there has been a leak and news is imminent - we'll see soon.