Member Info for rickyroman

...good infill on a few facts, cheers.

..in Feb 2016 we saw the global collapse of all commodity stocks and that included GCM.
GCM fell to 3p, but it was the majors who took the hammering. Rio down to 1500p, Anglo American 275p and Glencore 70p. I was watching Bloomberg and two American hedge fund managers were being interviewed and they both said ' some people are going to make a lot of money out of this'. For the first time ever, I was on the right side, listened to what they said and made £72,000 on First Quantum.........yes, it can happen

Needless to say, China continued to suck in iron ore, copper, nickel et al, coal went through the roof and commodity prices recovered. There was also some positive sentiment from Hasina as she looked at the latest German mining technology.

Looking good in Bangla, beware (as Chartist suggested) heavy tree-shake Monday am + maybe buying opportunities with Brexit fiasco on Tues / Wed.

….solid support on the Thurs pm then near 50% rise yesterday, with no news release.
I will be careful here but....aren't we actively seeking a new *****
If I'm the owner of Tin Pot Mining Co. and I have a discussion about the prospects for my company to XYZ and this is then overheard (I use that word in the broadest of terms). I maybe inadvertently divulge some very positive sentiment.
Makes you wonder......answers on a postcard please.

Baxter51, I'm always impressed by the INCREDIBLE optimism shown by you guys, but you need the reality check.
This is not a tech company, a Unicorn, not in your wildest dreams is this going to go from 24p to 500p, 1000p or whatever number you want to pluck out of the sky.
This is never (if it ever happens) going to be a partnership of equals, PowerChina have the financial and engineering muscle, we have a licence to mine some muddy paddy-fields in Bangladesh, a licence halfway through its life.

We have no finance, we have no personnel, the Banglas hardly welcome us with open arms. Its knife edge stuff this and it could so easily fail.
Kick this idea around - Hasina nationalises the Phulbari coal fiels - what then? She says 'clear off and sue me'
Ever heard of Oxus Gold. I have 300,000 shares in it - we started to sue the State of Uzbekistan in 2011 for theft of goldfields and equipment Went to Paris in 2015 and we lost. Back in Paris for UNICITRAL arbitration in March 2019, eight years on.

200p and exit ...that's my expectation - lets hope Michael Tang has Lady Luck in the negotiating room with him.

...you and I mate are the only two realists on this board - even El Salvador seems to have disappeared.

It all looked so positive (relatively so for GCM) - deadlines set....ha ha ha...….and we wait & wait & wait...

...I'm expecting that next week.
Two clear weeks to sort the issues of the JV out and nothing.
Always been suspicious of Michael Tang's 'no show ' at the AGM.

This is GCM ex-Asia Energy, there is always a problem.

….I'm still far from convinced this is a 'slam dunk' dead cert.
Hasina has won a landslide, but the only thing I am interested in is the JV Agreement and the terms within.
PowerChina is a world-class operator, China has a huge presence in Bangladesh and a JV signed with Chinese, in my estimation, is the green light to go.
'IF; we get that agreed and signed, forget about going up to Dhaka as AIM-listed GCM, we will be a serious player in partnership with one of biggest global engineering companies The authorisation will be merely a rubber-stamp exercise by Nasrul Hamid.
No-one is going to tell me that, in principal, this has not been agreed already. The GOB know that if they do not mine Phulbari now with Chinese funding and engineering expertise / might, it will never happen,
IF we don't get this JV signed in the next few days, then there is a serious problem with the terms and its my opinion that will be because PetroBangla. believe they are entitled to a bigger share of the project.
We need that JV or we are stuck in the 22-25p range. RNS confirmation asap, is vital...…..

...okay, let's see what happens. For now I will keep my expectations low, then I won't be disappointed if we hit a brick wall in negotiations.
If we get a result - fantastic and I will be the first to congratulate all holders.

I’m expecting a deal with POWERCHINA for some Chinese ownership of the mine.
I'm not - I'm expecting a deal with POWERCHINA for majority Chinese ownership, a substantial stake-hold by PetroBangla and GCM as the junior partner.

We have no money, we have no ability to raise additional funds in the market, we have a licence which is now nearly half-way through its operating life and not a single bucket load of earth has been dug.
We do have a very astute chairman, a Chinese team (Dyani) who are probably now extremely well connected.
But ' beware Greeks bearing gifts' - I would not trust the Banglas to have any sympathy for our cause, which they have managed to stymie for thirteen years.
GCM is a nuisance for Bangladesh. China is in the driving seat.
The GOB will be eyeing the end game and the Chinese funding, development know-how and ability to get things done. The JV and its terms will be the most crucial document for GCM in a decade.

If this was such a 'slam dunk' go-ahead win for GCM, with us dictating the development terms, the share price would not be 25p.

We have to be realistic - Rampers can ramp all they like, for now we are the junior partner.
Our best case scenario would be for Michael Tang to negotiate a good exit price for all us stockholders and an EXIT from Bangladesh.
Leave Phulbari to the Chinese / Bangla consortium. Our pockets now, stuffed with cash.

...….in a separate incident a man was shot by police after he tried to steal a ballot box.....sounds a bit desperate just to get your vote in...!

...agreed and signed off. I will feel a lot more positive about the project once the parties have agreed the terms and signed the docs. The presentation to Hasina from the B&RI team will be a formality with much of the work done in advance and with her riding high as the new PM, she can do pretty much what she likes.

The JVA says to me, full commitment by both parties to get this job done. A new company will be formed and I'm fairly certain that it will detail the equity. Don't be surprised to see Petrobangla's name on the shareholder list. They maybe there as GOB's 'golden share'. With Hasina still in charge, the Chinese get the stability and continuity they like. This could be 'our moment' after a difficult and frustrating 13 years.

Roll on 2019 !

...we know he is a lawyer, so he will have ensured all actions / agreements were conducted in a legal and (transparent??) manner. However, this is AIM - the Wild West of the markets.
Whist I don't think we will ever achieve the lofty valuations of c.£10.00 / share and £2-3 is more plausible, I like your optimism. £10/ share would be like a lottery win, I'm not sure I'm that lucky a person, but nice thought though.

...I think we all know that the relationship between Michael Tang and Dyani is probably closer than we want to acknowledge. Don't want to make this libellous, but they end up with a big chunk of potentially an 'enormous' cake....lot of smoke and mirrors and being absent from the AGM removes having to field any awkward questions. To be honest, I don't care, providing he does an amazing deal for all us long-suffering shareholders. My valuation figures are well below many others, but anything north of 200p is the right direction.

Someone asked the question as to why PowerChina did not go straight to the GOB or to Michael Tang. They must have been aware of the coalfield, especially with its close proximity to Bara. We won't ever know, but that .5 billion tonnes of high calorific coal is going to be one fantastic asset, if Hasina signs off the permission to mine.

thanks for your report and there does seem a palpable energy about GCM now. Couple of things of interest - the processing of the fuel to extract additional value (calorific I guess) is very interesting and the fact that management at Bara are conducting a dialogue with GCM, all positive stuff.

Thanks again for your effort.
Cheers

Rick

...you are forgetting a key issue - lack of electricity in Bangladesh is a blight to the nation and the fact that performance to date on the other power generation / mega projects is woeful. Most of these projects (under the auspices of Hasina's own department) have not achieved 20% completion yet and Rampal, which was started in 2013, is mired in the same mix. Bangladesh is fantastic for RMG, but totally hopeless at building anything - the Chinese are the opposite, they can build anything fast and on budget. Use your 'nous' for one second - 6000MW from your own high quality coal. Now google Barakuparia and see how 'NOT' to mine coal.

….breaking for lunch ??

14600 hectares is 46 square miles - come on you lot, get your facts right.

Remember, if they invade tomorrow at the AGM, just shout.. ' don't panic....don't panic Mr Mainwaring !!;
Bangladesh government have reached an agreement with PowerChina - sounds good to me - NewAge are ahead of the curve. Come on Mr Tang....sell the company and let NewAge have to deal with Bejing.

...anyone could have written that, he's just re-iterating what the RNS said. Can't understand why someone would dump 90k at the end of the session on what is 'no news'.

GP it was always a joint development of the mine and power plant, we don't have any money so we need PowerChina.
More importantly, look at Point2 of the MOU. The equity will be decided in a future JVA. - I'm seeing far lower ownership of the equity in the JVA.....more like 30% - 70% in PowerChina's favour. They could have already tabled an offer for the whole lot....at a very low price as there is no approval from the GOB as of yet. Remember, once we have used up that last loan, we are out of cash. Everybody should lower their expectations - we have a piece of paper, a licence, not a permit to mine.

...obviously something has triggered this delay and the Election could be an irrelevance or a key factor. My other thought was the equity split. No idea how the Chinese work with a JV, but here in the UK / Europe the equity split / sources of funding would be a key driver in moving this forward..

That JVA and subsequent presentation to the GOB is going to be a pretty substantial document and with c.3.5 billion dollars of commitment, all parties are going to want to know exactly where they stand.

Just bouncing some thoughts around. Let's hope its something easily sorted and Michael Tang gives a good coherent explanation for the delay, next Friday.