Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Chrishar - well of course they could stop selling at any moment. Or not sell any upon success and we see a massive unhindered rise. So nothing to worry about.
My point was though, that even if they do carry on trying to sell, they’ve really not got enough now to be particularly worried about upon success.

I really think you’re overplaying the seller thing in terms of their relevance upon success now.
They’ve probably only got 8m left now and that’ll be nothing in the volume if this is successful.
In fact, that would almost be the dream scenario, them capping the price in the morning of success, so I could buy a bucketload after success has been confirmed.
In reality though....I don’t expect to be able to buy cheaply after success ;)

Much obliged - lol

You find the people who predict tedious....

Imagine how tedious it is when you predict things correctly constantly for people whilst people continually tell you you're wrong, before being proved wrong themselves, and simply whine incessantly every time the SP isn't rising!

I said there would likely be a good bounce from 35p, I said the selling pressure that came in later on wasn't just PIs and was probably Acacia, I told you the lack of RNS from them straight away didn't mean it wasn't them.

So if we want to avoid tedious posts, can we not have a barrage of whinging every time the SP drops a bit, or because you've bought too much too high, or because you still didn't take the opportunity to de-risk.

Dunno where the extra "yes" and "exactly" came from in that post. Think I need a drink ;)

Chrishar - well yes if you're trying to short term trade this prior to results yes (although you did have your chance at 50p to make a profit from that too).
I'm talking about anyone exactly investing in this for the results. The risk/reward improves as the price falls and the chances of higher share prices increases the less shares Acacia have left to sell into the rises.
So despite the temporary doom and gloom - the chances of bigger rises is increasing.

Nolupus - I never assumed Lansdowne were continuing to sell. Having held all this time it would be weird to sell up everything before news and they just did the logical thing of take some profit on a big rise and keep a big chunk for the big reward they've waited years for ;)

Happy to agree to disagree about Acacia though :p

Not sure what you mean by Acacia in the picture now....that block of shares has been hanging over this for the best part of a year or so, whether it was when people thought Woodford was selling directly, then Link, now Acacia.
It's finally being been got rid of, and pretty quickly, at long last.
The potential for bigger rises increases the more shares they sell.

Eh?
The risk/reward just increases as the price falls. Unless you're buying at the highs and selling at the lows.
There was a good bounce at 35p, as predicted, but then Acacia started dumping and pushed it back down.
They had 21.3m shares when they bought them from Link.
They've already sold down to 11.2m as of just under a week ago.
So they're probably down to around 8m now.
That's the majority of their shares gone already.
So you get a final bite of the cherry at bargain prices prior to news - knowing that they've sold nearly two thirds of their shares already - and are going to run at some point in the near future....

Seb46 - It's quite something when the CEO is tweeting that the stock is overvalued and still people pile in more!
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/06/is-elon-musk-right-about-tesla-stock-being-overval.aspx

Tesla is arguably the most overvalued stock on any stock market in the world right now!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/06/23/tesla-is-overvalued-investors-are-treating-it-too-much-like-a-tech-company-says-morgan-stanley/

smaller=smaller portion

Chrishar - I'm well aware this isn't just a COVID stock. Since I was one of the very few people invested in here before this year :p

"According to SS our broker forecast is £1.20 pre results... I should hope positive COPD results lead to more than your supposed range of 50-100p Rich."
Yes, they estimate the risked value at £1.20 now and £3.60 upon success.
However if you look at the breakdowns you'll see the COPD portion is a smaller of that £1.20/£3.60.
I actually think they've been conservative on the COPD valuation, and it may well be worth more than the broker forecast, but their risked value of SNG001 in COPD currently is £41m (27p per share) and it doesn't breakdown the CoS for each but if it's equal than their valuation on success is 27p*3=81p.
So their forecast for success on COPD is pretty much in the middle of the range I said for COPD success (although I do think it has potential to be more with a fair wind).

Impossible to know.
Good results on COPD could easily be 50-100p. Good results on COVID too and it could be many multiples of that. Just going to have to wait and see.
It's not hard to imagine the media circus if they show good results in treating COVID patients in a serious double-blind placebo controlled trial. America bought the entire stocks of remdesivir based on mild/moderate improvements in a small subset of patients at a particular stage of the disease!

And the award for worst scaremongering attempt goes to....

(the brains trust really are in overdrive today)

I'm not sure how accurate that morningstar data is (not very I don't think).
They've still got Woodford on there with various stakes (which obviously they don't have).
It seems like they're just aggregating information from various sources (and not culling/updating it properly).
I wouldn't put it past them to have got it wrong.

Having a large seller is always annoying but the flip side is you usually get a good bounce when they're done and it's also better the less shares they have when good news come so that they're not holding back the momentum of any rise.
Can think of it like short term pain for long term gain, as essentially, if results aren't good it really didn't matter anyway, but if they are good, then more people had a chance to buy near the lows, and the chances of a bigger rise upon good results is much higher the less they have left (especially if they run out any time soon).

This website is ****? :p

I'd guesstimate they've got very roughly around 9m left now.

Well the volume over past few days is very roughly totalling 4m to 4.5m...if they've not reported any sells yet (don't remember seeing any big trades listed) and them being likely to be filling a large portion of those sells. They could easily have sold another 2m. Maybe even 3m at a bit of a push.
If we get another II deciding to step in, and hoover up some more shares now the price is lower, they could be done quite quickly.
It is what it is. Won't be too much longer ;)