Member Info for RichKen

My number for this week, depending news would be sensibly positioned around £1.65 for a Thursday close.
If Cytiva announce with Avacta that they have succeeded in producing a highly accurate lateral flow device ready for immediate sale using Avacta Affirmers then the number will be significantly higher. The sales of such a device will need to be produced in the billions of units.
Let’s see how it plays out. But this will be a very exciting week for Avacta investors.
I am very excited and am looking to add again tomorrow.
That’s me for today.
Cheers RK

Thanks Vanilla. I will look at them.
Cheers RK

Current funds:
AXA Framlington Healthcare - Accumulation - currently a safe performer 13% in the last 3 weeks.
Fundsmith - Accumulation - the back stop fund for any ISA or SIPP - average performance 20% growth per year.
I am watching others. But the above I am happy to share.
Trust fund - SMT.
AXA Framlington Biotech may be apt at the moment!
Sorry for off topic.
Cheers RK

Dear all,
I thought I would just share this with you. I have been investing in the market for many years but for the last ten years more seriously. I originally invested in companies I liked, but soon found funds were a much better place for a novice investor as they gave a broad spread of the market in specific sectors and it was easy to see performance and find out which stocks were key in each fund. I had some very good results with funds averaging 20 to 60% growth per year. Better than any pension fund or investment plan. Just by choosing in focus markets.
But, I was looking for the next best thing as these are the standout investments. Having watched in the fashion world ASOS, I found Boohoo in the early days and bought in the 30p level and road this up to above £1.50. I was looking at the growth in energy requirements and soon discovered that energy storage was a key future market which is going to be worth billions through this decade a beyond. You will see some of those in my posting history. I have experienced great success. But the key point has been research into the market, into the business and into the management of the business.
LSE has been an interesting part of research gauging the reactions of other investors and from April 17 I have been a regular reader and contributor where I felt it would be helpful and also to ask questions. Giving something back is always helpful. But share chats boards are not the place to research as everyone has only there own motive for being there. So research carefully. Also the crowd is not always right. You need to think it through and make solid investment decisions.
This brings me to Avacta. Looks like a perfect decision.
Cheers RK

Trek, you are of course quite correct! Getting life back to ‘normal’ is the priority today and the income and growth potential for Avacta through the POC lateral flow test with Cytiva and other potential partners is massive in terms of income and being the fastest most accurate test in the world with the potential tag, Anytime, Anyplace Anywhere! Is what the world needs.
It is today’s focus.
But...cancer is the worlds most well known and traumatic word that our modern world hears and having a treatment which will indeed make it bearable and even more likely to succeed in destroying the cells and resulting in cure or management of the symptoms is such a revolution and the income potential for this is beyond imaginable for AIM investors.
The underlying point is this company offers everything today’s investor wants. Huge upside potential over the weeks ahead towards a very strong value and over the next two years an astonishing value if they are not bought by a big pharmaceutical business.
Cheers RK

MrSpeculator, thanks for your fundamentals list.

If we look beyond the current Covid19 diagnostic system which will without doubt transform our life’s today. The picture for Avacta is actually the world of cancer treatments.

Cancers kill more people and effects more lives than any other group of illnesses on the planet. Treatments involve two key treatments chemotherapy and radiotherapy, usually in conjunction with forms if surgery.

Avacta have pioneered a method of delivering chemotherapy directly to the point in the body where the cancer cells are active. Chemotherapy is given in either tablet or a drip type format which effects the whole body by destroying cells. These leads to severe side effects - extreme tiredness, nausea (severe sickness), low immunity, hair loss and the effects are devastating. I know I have witnessed it first hand. Avacta have pioneered and have in test a pre-CISION targeted chemotherapy treatment which will change the world of oncology for ever. The details are found here:- https://avacta.com/therapeutics/

The second development is with respect to stem cell treatments and these can be used in specific treatments for other debilitating diseases. Alastair Smith explains:
“The potential for AffyXell’s new class of cell therapies, which can be applied to a wide range of inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, is enormous. We are therefore very excited by the opportunity to be part of this new venture and to demonstrate the power of Affimer proteins in the field of engineered cell therapies.

“Our objective is for these cell therapies to finally fully address diseases, such as inflammatory bowel diseases and multiple sclerosis, as well as other autoimmune diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The potential to make a difference in the quality of life for millions of patients continues to inspires us, as we know it does our colleagues at Daewoong as well.

“From a commercial perspective, the global stem cell market is expected to be worth USD 16bn* by 2025. AffyXell has a unique opportunity to combine two world-class technologies, Avacta’s Affimer antibody mimetic platform and Daewoong’s proprietary technology for generating “off-the-shelf” allogeneic MSC therapies to create the next generation of stem cell therapies. We believe that this has the potential to create substantial value for stakeholders in the near future.”

Avacta Partnerships:
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/partnering/

The fundamentals of this company are multifaceted well beyond Covid19 testing and the potential is truly incredible and for investors looking for a longer term investment this company is highly likely to deliver huge rewards both from a capital growth, potential dividend income or from a first tier pharmaceutical company acquiring the business based on future potential which will most likely to be at a premium to the market value of the day.
Cheers RK

If you want to learn the detail about Lateral Flow Testing - here is a detailed presentation: - https://youtu.be/uHpsV3p514Q
I hope this helps!
Cheers RK

Looking at manufacturing opportunities...
I would like to know if a company in York, Abingdon Health have been working with Avacta? If you look they manufacturer Lateral Flow Test devices. For the UK market it would be a strong partnership if they were able to work together. https://www.abingdonhealth.com/contract-services/lateral-flow-assay-development/
Very local opportunity, one would think the two businesses would have some contact?
Cheers RK

When it comes to it the Avacta & Cytiv Partnership for Point of Care testing using Lateral Flow Device testing stick for use with siliva can be used by anyone anywhere! Anytime, Anyplace, Anywhere, without the need for anyone with medical expertise (those of a certain age will remember this slogan from a certain vermouth advert). So we will definitely have 100% a Unique Selling Point.
Places of use:
Home
Doctors
Dentist
Events Venue
Sports Centre
Swimming Pool
Ports of Entry and Exit to the UK
Bus or Rail Terminals
Places of work
The list goes on, but the key is this is a low-cost test which will give results in minutes and you and everyone around you will know you are safe. On that note, I have just had a light bulb engineer moment for an idea!
Time to right to Avacta!!
Have a great evening all!
Please keep evening chat civil on here, please! Treat everyone with the respect that you would wish to be treated yourself!

Cheers, RK

Phoenix, hope you go to the dentist twice per year, plus the population of around 65 million people, let’s call it 80 million tests per year, just at a dentists in the UK!
The number I’d test in the UK alone could be 1 billion. For every aspect of life to safeguard the population, let alone the rest of the world.
Eye watering numbers.
Cheers RK

O&W not at all sir. I actually posted at the same as you within a few seconds.
Cheers RK

But Avacta do not use swabs or the technology currently known. So that is false news once the Avacta / Cytiva partnership and simple test stick is implemented. Again this shows the importance of our product and it’s unique selling point!
Cheers RK

The potential upside for this additional testing avenue may be more significant than most mere mortal investors on a share chat board may understand. The opportunity for a strong revenue opportunity from this partnership is looking highly likely!
The more research on this the more eye opening it becomes. The team at Avacta really are on point with maximising opportunities.
Investors here are doing likewise by building a strong holding as part of their balanced portfolio.
Cheers RK

Which on was that doze?
Please share.

The key factors influencing BMN's future:

- Bushveld Minerals are a "Profitable Vertically Integrated Vanadium Business!"
- With 3 mines – Vametco, Brits and Mokopane
- Nitrovan is a key product to strengthen steel from its Vametco Mine
- Vanadium is also used in a breaking electrolyte technology used in large energy storage batteries
- Bushveld has two processing plants Vametco 3200 mtV and Vanchem 1100 mtV - currently producing a combination of 4300 mtV, in last year with an average selling price of circa US$40 per kilo with an operating cost of circa US$19 – but operation costs are now much lower in 2020
- Bushveld has plans to more than double the capacity of these two plants to 8400 mtV pa within 3 years
- Of the 3 mines Vametco is in full operation, Brits is an extension to Vametco and Mokopane which has its licence for mining fully approved and this will be the largest high-grade Vanadium mine in the world – DFS later this year and expect the mine to be opened in 2021
- Bushveld has built up a new division called Bushveld Energy which has part ownership of Invinity Energy Storage plc and Enerox GmbH part of its VIP program.
- Bushveld Energy has installed at the Eskom Battery Test facility a VRFB which has been operational over a year which is being used for evaluation purposes
- The Bushveld Electrolyte Company is building a Vanadium Electrolyte 200MWh plant in East London (SA)
- The Electrolyte plant will eventually have the capacity for 1000MWh of electrolyte
- 1000MWh of electrolyte needs approximately 5000 mtV per year
- Bushveld Energy is working with multiple partners around the world through Vanitec to build the strongest business case for VRFB
- Bushveld Energy plan to build an assembly plant for VRFB is SA – an Enerox subsidiary is possible?
- The world supply chain for vanadium remains in deficit and today even more so, Bushveld Minerals are so far ahead of the other players. Prices will be rising quickly.

Vanadium prices are rising in 2020 with the price today close to US$26 per kilo and our cost is well below US$15 per kilo and we will be producing just under 4,300,000 kilos of vanadium in 2020!

The current limited supply puts Bushveld in one of the strongest positions as a primary Vanadium supplier with strong revenue growth predicted year on year!

If you are not sure - then read this:

Last reported financial position is:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bushveld_minerals/news/rns/story/xj0117w

Latest broker report following 2019 Q4 from SP Angel:
https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Q4_Operational_Production_Update_January_2020.pdf

Latest company presentation – February 2020:
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/BMN-Mining-Indaba-2020-Corporate-Presentation-Updated04022020.pdf

The Interview with our CEO's “two is better than one”:
https://youtu.be/p3QUjIL1rJQ

Cheers RK

I am sure this post is worth reading again from M. McNulty ( the credit is with him for this post) from the other day in response to a question from an investor here to the potential for the share price. This was written before yesterdays RNS!

“I expect we’ll hit £500m market cap (~240p) pre-commencement of sales if the test is developed successfully and CE marking secured. Timeframe for that – May/June.

Thereafter I think sales will just grow exponentially. Once £1bn market cap (~480p) market cap is surpassed (which I believe will happen once sales commence), the share price could go anywhere.

I’ve always had a long-term valuation target of £4bn market cap (a little under £20/s), based on the Sanofi / Ablynx transaction. But on top of the antibody mimetic platform, we also have targeted chemo and the COVID-19 angle. As such, I think it really is impossible to place any sort of target price on the stock.

Its technology could literally lead the global war against the pandemic, and in the longer term, its therapeutics division could genuinely reshape the field of cancer treatment. Gross sales annually for this second market alone would be several hundred billion dollars. How do you put a value on the company that could ultimately take a significant chunk of it?

In my opinion, it’s dangerous to place a specific exit price for yourself in a company like this. I certainly haven’t for myself. Conventional valuation metrics do not apply, and the total addressable market (‘TAM’) calculations are just pie in the sky, really. If I had to point out a TAM for Avacta, I could say that the company is currently trading on much less than 0.1% of its ultimate TAM. Perhaps around 0.05%, at the moment. Even accounting for all of the development and commercialisation risks ahead, that is far too low by many multiples – in my opinion, at least!

I won’t give advice on what to do with your shares – but what I can say is what I’m doing, and that is just to let the story play out. The ideal scenario would really be for the decision to be taken from my hands, with a takeover of the company by a major. Indeed, this is what I think will ultimately transpire.”

The confidence from our CEO on these projects and the impact on people getting back to normal life and the potential for targeted cancer treatments. Today I was talking to an oncologist who is aware that this technology is in test and she told me, that there is much excitement in their field that if this pre-CISION can be implemented for multiple chemotherapies mixes it will change cancer treatments forever and when you think around one-third of the population are affected that is an off the scale impact of oncology on the whole planet.

Something to make you think.

Cheers RK

Listen to our CEO with respect to partnerships:

https://twitter.com/RichieKennett/status/1256602908159770624?s=20

Another worthwhile link for you on the new partnership :

https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Turner-Pope-note-May-1st-2020.pdf?utm_content=128334400&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-2279270671

Cheers, RK

Recently posted on Twitter by Myles McNulty which I am sure he would like as many people to see as possible.

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1256211410507481090?s=20

"I find it quite astonishing that Avacta is only up 9% on today’s news.
It has announced a second partnership to develop a COVID19 antigen test, this one with Adeptrix.
The test, combining AVCT's Affimers and Adeptrix's proprietary BAMS platform, will utilise mass spectrometers.
Mass spectrometers are found in hospitals, clinics and labs worldwide.
The test will be both highly sensitive and specific, and critically:
"Hundreds of samples per day can be analysed by a single technician using BAMS, exceeding the capacity of a single PCR machine”
Crucially, these machines are NOT currently being used for COVID19 testing.
Avacta with Adeptrix has thus devised a 4th method of testing - "antigen-mass spectrometer".

Mass spectrometers across the globe can now be mobilised to add to testing capacity and Avacta with Adeptrix is the ONLY player in this submarket.
Another key point is that it would seem that Avacta's novel antigen mass spectrometers test will be brand agnostic. Any type of mass spectrometer will be able to diagnose the test.

This is in contrast to PCR testing, where many PCR machines will only run tests of their owners' branding.

I do not have any accurate figures for the number of mass spectrometer machines worldwide - but from what it seems, Avacta and its partner will have a genuine monopoly on them for COVID19 testing.

Moreover, the partners talk of the test working as a certainty: manufacturing to start next month! Avacta could receive its first royalty cheque end July.

Now, consider how NCYT's (a PCR test producer) revenue has rocketed (£90m+ in past ten weeks).

Avacta has no competition, and essentially unlimited processing capacity to roll out its test (no one is using mass spectrometer machines yet!)

Major revenues could commence within 8 weeks for Avacta, and it will bear no production or distribution risk.

The market hasn't received this more warmly so far, because it's fixated on the lateral flow device - understandably, as the 'LFD' could be game-changing for the world.

But it is not recognising that today, Avacta has secured a more certain - and still massive - revenue steam. This will underpin the current share price, and fund all operations for the foreseeable future.

This new partnership and solution massively de-risk the very small chance of the lateral flow device failing with Cytiva.

It is utterly perplexing that the market has not seen the significance of yesterday's news.

It is perhaps not game-changing for the world (although it'll assist hugely in the battle against COVID19, it certainly is for Avacta."

I am sure many here will find this information from 9 tweets very interesting to read.

Cheers, RK

“We are delighted to have established this partnership with Adeptrix in our push to develop Affimer -based COVID-19 antigen tests. Jeff and his team are world-renowned in the mass spectrometry field, and the BAMS diagnostic platform is highly sensitive and specific, giving us great confidence that a high performance COVID-19 antigen test can be developed and launched commercially very quickly.

We believe that the BAMS test will be hugely attractive as an adjunct to PCR testing because it uses laboratory equipment that is already in hospital labs but not currently used for COVID-19 testing so it provides incremental testing capacity.

What is Bams?
BAMS™ stands for Bead-Assisted Mass Spectrometry. It is a multiplexed analytical platform technology that is based on single bead immunoaffinity capture and single bead analysis by mass spectrometry (MS).

How does Bams work?
Antibody-conjugated magnetic beads are incubated with a biological sample to capture the target analytes of interest. Multiple samples may be processed in parallel in a 96-well plate. The beads are washed to remove non-specifically bound biomolecules and arrayed on a BAMS™ microwell array slide that consists of an elastomer gasket attached to a microscope slide. The bead array is exposed to an aerosol containing matrix for MALDI mass spectrometry. The captured compounds are eluted from beads into individual microwells. The gasket and the beads are subsequently removed to make an array of spots containing concentrated and purified analytes incorporated into the matrix (BAMS™ array). Individual spots in the array are then measured by MALDI MS.

Alastair Smith on Adeptrix partnership:
A consensus view is building around the world that hundreds of millions of COVID-19 tests are going to be required per month for a long period and that the disease will be endemic after the initial pandemic has passed, meaning that testing for COVID-19 is going to be needed for many years.

I have made it clear that we intend to partner the SARS-COV-2 spike protein Affimer reagents with several select companies to support antigen test development on multiple diagnostic test platforms. This will contribute most effectively to the urgent need to increase antigen testing capacity globally and maximise the commercial return to Avacta. Adeptrix is one example of this and other discussions are underway. I look forward very much to further updating the market in the near future.

https://adeptrix.com/

Cheers, RK