Member Info for RichKen

That is a very low-grade resource with an average 0.57% compared to the BMN average at over 1.75% which again shows the importance of our total resource at 440 MT!

Meanwhile, we have a very steady increase in SP today. Currently over 4%!

Not surprising if the market only understood the significance of the news on ESS for the SA market and the significance and impact this will have on Bushveld Minerals! We should be up 400%!

This is one of Nickderby's posts but important to have the numbers fresh in our minds as we are rising a little!

Hope you are enjoying your holiday Nick!

A summary of the latest broker targets.

SP Angel - target 87p.
This is based on FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019,2020 and a long term price of just $45 per kg.

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Q4_Sales_EBITDA.pdf

ARC - target 50p.
This is based on FeV prices of:
$80 per kg in 2019,
$70 per kg in 2020,
$60 per kg in 2021
and long term prices of $45 per kg.

However, their target share price increases to £1.36 at an FeV price of $100 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14.

Using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $100 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £2.23.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Vanadium-strength-drives-sharp-earnings-growth.pdf

Fortune Mojapelo ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’.

2019 looks like it’s going to be another exciting year! :)

DYOR.

Thanks, BBN - That translates to 40,000 tonnes of vanadium based on 2000 MW and 8000 MWh.

I think we need to be expanding our mining facilities! We will need an average of 4000 tonnes per annum for VRFB electrolyte if it was balanced out, which it won't be of course!

Thanks, Ophidian - I love both Yes Minister and Yes Priminister!

That paragraph took a lot of time to construct.... ;-)

One of the most important parts of the Bushveld Minerals growth story will be the unlocking of this most exciting part of the story. This effectively unlocks the other half of the Bushveld Minerals story.

The world is in a transition phase towards renewables as the realisation that carbon-based power generation needs to be phased out. The Solar and Wind Generation is a significantly low-cost generation platform, but the key is filling in the gaps when there is no wind and the sun is not shining. Energy storage has been unveiled as the key. This was a problem for long term storage and repeated charge and discharge cycles until the vanadium redox flow battery was invented and proven. Bushveld Energy was formed to complete the gap in the market.

This year will see everything become joined up.

Eskom has a BE 120kW /450 kWh VRFB battery installed for a 90-day test which will prove to the SA energy provider that this is the best option for grid storage.

Eskom have multiple contracts available for energy storage batteries in 2019 and they have made no secret that they want to use locally built batteries from minerals from SA. This fits perfectly for BE.

Bushveld Energy is building an electrolyte plant in ELDZ where the batteries will also be assembled.

The first contracts are likely to be awarded in late 2019 or first quarter of 2020 just when the plant will be ready.

These contracts and this industry is going to be huge and SA is looking like they will be leading the field. BMN will supply the vanadium and investment in the mines will produce the vanadium required.

Mikhail the CEO of BE has already said the potential for BE is ten times that of the mining side of the business.

This makes this one of the most exciting moments in BMN's history! The story will be told.

All exciting stuff!

So competition in the Niobium market against the worlds largest player CBMM in Brazil seems less likely this means that Niobium (also used in the steel strengthening market) still will have no real competitors meaning that steels mills will not be wise to change to "a single company supply" as they could be held to much higher prices.

This will be good for vanadium as it is a far abundant mineral even though supply is currently somewhat limited!

"China Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB US$74.5/kg vs US$74.5/kg

Ferro- Vanadium prices pull back 2.3% in Western Europe to $71.5-76/kgV last week (Fastmarkets MB)

Ferro-vanadium prices also slipped 0.7% fob China for 78% material to $73-76/kgV.

Friday’s trade report indicates more material being sold at these levels in Europe than normally seen."

Interesting last point - new players coming to buy vanadium?

How big is Bushveld Energy's Market?

Africa offers a unique and immediate opportunity

Africa presents an immense opportunity for energy storage because it suffers from insufficient energy

Issues:
- Continuous load shedding in South Africa, despite growing tariffs and billions of Rand spent on diesel Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs)
- Eskom operating with just a 2,000 MW spinning reserve rather than 15% (6,000 MW) reserve margin
- Addition of renewables will make operation of SA’s power system even more challenging due to intermittent supply
- Across sub-Saharan Africa, ~600 million people now live without electricity and grids are too weak to support major industry

However, demand is growing rapidly and sub-Saharan Africa will demand nearly 1,600 terawatt hours by 2040!

Bushveld Energy analysis suggests that the addressable market in Africa for utility-scale storage over the next 5 years is 80-90 GWh, or $25-$30 billion

That is one very large market for Bushveld Energy to capitalise on supplying Electrolyte and VRFB as part of the solution to power African and resolve high cost and high pollution alternatives.

The news coming will give a clear indication of how Bushveld Energy will provide the solutions to this huge market!

Pdub, you are right this year will be transformational!

Bushveld Energy taking the steps to bring the advantages for Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries:

- Long life and excellent performance
- Nearly unlimited number of cycles, with a 20 year lifetime
- 100% depth of discharge
- Lowest cost per kWh when used once daily (or more frequently)
- Safe and sustainable
- Non-toxic
- Non-flammable, water-based electrolyte chemistry
- 100% of vanadium can be re-used once the battery is removed

Additional benefits of the technology include
- Quick recharge
- Easily scalable, as power rating (MW) and energy (MWh) are independent
- Proven operation in high ambient temperatures

VRFB is an excellent fit for daily storage
- with solar PV, Wind generation sites
- grid support e.g. peak shaving, system balancing
- off-grid installations e.g. farms, islands, mines and off grid eco hotels

Some applications:

- Vanadium Redox Flow battery (VRFB) solutions are ideal for shifting the time of electricity supply, thus reducing both generation and transmission & distribution (T&D) costs for electric power utilities
- Vanadium Redox Flow battery (VRFB) solutions can help African governments achieve their energy access objectives much faster and cheaper without the need for large power stations and huge transmission lines
- Vanadium Redox Flow battery (VRFB) solutions can help communities not connected to an electricity grid by providing a 24 hour, 100% renewable energy solution at prices well below diesel and delivering a simple “plug and play” solution in a matter of months.

What's not to like!

One piece of news - Fortune and Mikhail will be attending:
Exane BNP Paribas: Natural Resources Conference on 26/27 March

Great opportunity to catch up on few media channels and meet up any London based fund managers with a lot of recent substantial news items, backed by our brokers support one would hope.

Lots of interesting reading on the updated Bushveld Energy website:
The applications page is interesting reading:
http://www.bushveldenergy.com/applications

Precision timing Knuttie. :)

Ophidian - Let us hope there is plenty more product built up for the next shipment, or even they are holding back some product, as they know there is pressure on the prices coming which will maximize income. There are some many possibilities that could be played out here.

The only time we will know 100% is when the Q1 is announced. I would, however, say a huge thanks for your experienced views and calculation to give us all the perspective on where we are from your mining experience. It adds so much value to this board. Keep it coming!

Looking forward to more pearls of wisdom from your experience this week, and hopefully BBN when the next news arrives. Some of the best open discussions on here are you and BBN analysing the news and the outlook.

Thanks to Alfa too, for giving us all the detailed trading analysis for the last week!

Here's to a very good week ahead!

Cheers, RK

The final two paragraphs make the current and historical situation very clear.

Thanks Alfa.

Alfa, you still need 11 more - recommendations. Looks like they don’t want the weeks analysis? Come on folks.

Sat 18:37.

I get a sneaky feeling that the week ahead might just see the start of the rise with a very exciting news release?

I think this could be what many would like to see too? Nice informative RNS with a clear view for the next critical step to take this company to the next level.

Swanseayellow - I do think that Bushveld Minerals will continue to supply the steel market. This we must remember is current 96% of the worlds vanadium demand.
To produce Nitrovan it takes the full process and this gives our sure footed income from established clients. As I pointed out in my previous post there is plenty of upside profit to be made if the sales and marketing team up their game.
Now this brings us to the electrolyte market which for Bushveld Energy requires producing V2O3 vanadium now this can easily come from a new stream in the process and the mine expansion. Clearly 1000 MWh will need 5000 mtV so we need the extra ore output by the end of 2020 / early 2021 to meet this requirement and this is where the story will get interesting - how we accelerate the production capacity to meet the demand. These are the answers we can expect to here later this year. Until end of Q1 2020 we focus on the steel market and developing the V203 pilot plant at Vametco.
Those wondering about is this a good time to join or leave? Well if you do your research and look at the market research into the growth for vanadium in steel and the so far best large energy storage battery technology - VRFB. It looks like this market will explode for the existing players. Bushveld Minerals look to be from every angle in the best position to exploit every aspect of this exciting industry.

My money is staying invested here, ideally for the next 3 to 5 years and likely well beyond. These points are all my opinion based on continued research.

The question is what is the not to like?

Cheers RK

Faramog - I think if you are targeting new clients then the benefits should be made clear that when we supply Nitrovan you only need 60% of this product compared to buying 80% FeV and you through the complete bagged product straight into the furnace with no packaging to detail with.

Based on the current 80% FeV prices at $75

So, in reality, using BMN Nitrovan to strengthen 1000 kg steel it only costs $47.25 per tonne (with a 5% premium).

Using other suppliers standard 80% FeV it cost $75 per 1000 kg of steel.

So to match current prices for FeV you would need to increase our price by 66.6% to be at the same price!

So if we charged 45% more for our Nitrovan we would still be $10 per tonne cheaper.

So you would think it would be very straight forward to increase prices and be very competitive especially in new markets. This would bring a 45% increase in revenue.

This would be a very interesting question for the sales team.

For existing clients, it would have to be increased year on year though. A delicate matter!

Cheers, RK

Alfa, all your time and effort in helping us all here means that if anyone should be on top spot it is you. This is a great board and the sharing of information and insight as a group, into this company as a community is what the board is all about.
Cheers RK

Don’t forget if you want trading analytics tonight for last week, you need to recommend Alfacomp’s post at 18:37 from last night!