Member Info for RichKen

There is no doubt in my mind that any day when our SP falls dramatically is not very difficult for all investors here. Especially so since the highs of 16th November and 19th December when we hit over 48p. There are many theories which we are aware of here on why the price has fallen back so far. There may well be a combination of them, shorting, people selling out to protect gains, the fall in vanadium prices etc. They all lead to huge disappointment and in some cases great anxiety. To those looking at huge loses here it is very tough indeed.
None of us know what will happen next, but it is worth just having a long hard chat with ourselves here:
- Why did we invest?
- Has the company achieved everything it was expected to?

The answer to those questions is fairly simple:
We invested because this company is on the road to developing one of the largest vanadium mining and production companies in the world. The value of which looks incredibly low currently. (5p, 10p, 20p, 40p or 48.5p). The market is in deficit and the steel market needs vanadium as it is and remains the best and most efficient way to increase strength in steel.
Also, the world has a major issue with carbon emissions and ways to make renewable energy sources become effective are very hot right now in the world. Low and behold Bushveld Minerals has some very important people in their organization who are world leaders in Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Technology and they are in the process of building the worlds largest vanadium electrolyte plant in a country where there is both the opportunity to grow and make use of this technology, let alone become one of the largest suppliers in the world of vanadium. So that is a good summary of why we invested.

Has the company achieved its goals, no not yet! But it is well on its way, the market is still in deficit, the company has recently started the full acquisition of its second brownfield processing plant. Together they have the potential to bring just under 10,000 mtV to the market. But Bushveld Minerals is awaiting its additional licenses for Brits and Mokopane to add to the Vametco mine which is in full production. This means they will have 440 million tonnes of vanadium ore with a total actual Vanadium content of circa 7 million tonnes of vanadium. That is a huge asset and within 3 to 5 years they can be extracting and processing over 10,000 mtV per year. With some huge life of mine ahead. Some of which will be supplying there own electrolyte plant, which will be supplying their own assembly plant for VRFB. Vertically integrated, with multiple high-value asset streams which will produce strong revenues and profit. Are we there yet. No! Should we be looking forward yes!
That is why this company despite all the tough days, will, in fact, liberate one of the best stories in investing history. Dot give up after a few bad months. The tide will turn and when it does you will want to be here. I certainly do!

Cheers, RK

Faramog, it could be said that the Mokopane licence is more imminent at its ever been.
For a stake in the ground, I would say September/October RNS on that one.
Let’s hope it comes out of the new Governments priority list!
Cheers RK

Compass007, you are quite right. As humans, we often let impatience overall our decisions. There is also the excitement of something new.

I think last year for most LTH's the run from 27th June when we bottomed after the previous rise when the SP was 17.9p up to the 13th of August when we hit 27p was very exciting, followed by a moment of concern when we had a rapid drop to 19p to the 12th September when we went back to 19p. But then 12th September the fireworks happened and we rose from 19p to 48.4 close on the 16th November (we actually hit 50p for about 3 minutes at 8:20) was quite a run. In that time clearly, vanadium prices were heading towards the peak and there was huge optimism about the plant output rising not only to 3750 mtV but in 2019 to 5000 mtV and the considered thought was the Vanadium price would likely hold above $100 per kilo. Why because demand was looking incredibly strong.

Six months later the Vanadium price has fallen, but Bushveld are much stronger now, not only with a stronger run of mine from Vametco but the excitement of a second brownfield site at Vanchem with 960mtV now and long term potential of over 4000 mtV, added to the 3200 mtV at Vametco currently and 5000 mtV soon. Now the global demand for vanadium is set to rise again as the built-up inventories are depleted and the rebar market gets stronger through June to November as well as new VRFB projects come to fruition.

So we are very likely to see renewed interest and much stronger uplift this time than last year. When that ignition moment will happen is an interesting question. But over the next two to three years the fair value will be coming and those holding on to very good holdings will be well pleased.

So let's learn to fight against human instinct and see this investment through. We have read and studied so much about the market pressure building and the deficit. So the pressure building here will soon be released and the June to November rise is likely to come again with a much higher peak both potentially for FeV and our SP. Time will tell. But I am quietly optimistic.
2023 to 2025 is likely to be where most LTH should be targeting as potential peak here. But that is now, by then we might be seeing a new target.

Cheers, RK

The point which BBN was attaining too in his post on Twitter which is quite correct, is that China is leading the 4th Industrial revolution. They have the best education for the wealthy and they have a super elite class which comes from highly motivated entrepreneurs. This leads to multiple super companies. Once you have built up a multi-billion dollar company to enrich your position you can go on a complimentary acquisition trail.

He said with the potential for a take over it is a question about "when not if". Now the point is though when you look aour major shareholder is YD. Fortune is very close to them, as he stated before we are not to worry about YD. But YD also let us buy back shares from them last year.
Fortune has always said that when the Mokopane licenses comes through the first off take would be to China in the form of ore. The second would be to a brownfield site, which we are currently working through the acquisition ourselves of Vanchem. The income from both these offtake options will give the financial long term leverage to build a greenfield site.
The chineese, as well as the rest of the world, are well aware of the carbon emissions crisis and one important way to overcome this is to make renewables work in every way. There is already enough knowledge in China and research with VRFB to know that this IS THE BEST TECHNOLOGY for STATIONARY STORAGE! Therefore the demand for vanadium is not just in steel but in electrolyte. If you think about it like making plastic bottles you don't make them and ship them around you mould them right next to where they are filled. I would expect to see vanadium electrolyte plants springing up around the world and only the chemically correct vanadium shipped to these plants. Why because there is a lot of water in the electrolyte and some clever company will licence the production and allow it to be made where it is needed. Now that company will need a global perspective and strong financial backing. It will also need a key man to drive this and we should not underestimate the strength and connections that Mikhail has around the world through Vanchem.
It will take more time but not much time, 3 to 5 years and there is a lot of options at play here. My only point is to make sure you stay invested as the pressure will be strong on the companies market cap. For large Chinese energy or chemical company, it would not be hard to take over a 5 to 10 billion dollar company, but they will want it established and profitable, but with a long term supply source and Bushveld Minerals with Mokopane, Brits and Vametco have the largest on the planet and this will not go unnoticed.
Lots to think about and lots to consider, but we have some time ahead. Fortune and Mikhail have more work to do and the world needs a little more time to wake up and see the light. It will happen, just a little patience. I am sure BBN will have more to say on this when he has time to comment himself. China is the superpower now!
C

This may have been posted already - Sorry if it has!

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 25.8p, Mkt Cap £288m – South Australia moves to vanadium redox-flow storage as base technology

STRONG BUY – Target price 90p from 87p

The economic and operational rationale is moving towards vanadium redox batteries following further trials and better comprehension of their advantages.
The number of fires, parasitic losses, degradation and shorter life span of grid-scale lithium battery installations is also an important factor in swinging decision making towards larger and more robust vanadium redox flow batteries.
News yesterday that Pangea Energy in Australia has signed an agreement with Celltube to build 50MW / 200MWh of VFRB energy storage in Port Augusta is good news for the technology and for balancing power instability in the area which already has a number of Li-ion grid storage systems in place.
The $200m battery will be integrated with 50MW of solar in the area with constructions due to start this year with commissioning in 2020.

Conclusion: This is great news for Bushveld Energy and for longer-term demand for vanadium in VFRB electrolyte

Daisan posted this earlier today, I dont think many picked up on it. Look at pages 13 and 15. It would suggest that Terry Perles knew that Vanchem was coming. It gives a clear perspective on the future growth. yet another point to show that this market doesn't just have legs it is about to go stratospheric!

http://www.spartonres.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Presentation-Terry-10-Ex-China-Vanadium-Market.pdf

Thanks for the find Daisan!

Thanks Nick26 - that is some point of fact presented there, which should again make any shareholder here feel very content. Yellow Dragon, have always been a bit of a mystery but Fortune has always said don't worry about YD! With solid backing from this major investor, this helps hold our future even stronger. Yout long term support on this board is much appreciated also!

Mark,
There is no doubt as many here will reiterate over and over again that this position with the SP will not and cannot be sustained for long. The pressure will come on the vanadium price, the buying pressure will come back here with some force in the not to distant future. In my opinion as I voiced this morning the alignment of these three points will give us the kick and momentum needed which I feel will push us way above the highs of November 2018.
- 1 - 2018 Final Audited accounts and results
- 2 - Dividend Policy
- 3 - JSE Listing

These alone should give us a huge uptick.

However if, Terry Perles is correct and the market pressure increases the price of Vanadium will miminium double from here and add this to the final unlocking of the Mokopane license which will make BMN and BE have all they need for the future of Nitrovan, V205, V203, Vanadium Chemicals, Vanadium Electrolyte at the time when VRFB will come into there own. 49p will feel like you did very well. You will be telling people of the dark days in early 2019. Yet in 2023 sitting at way above £1 maybe in even £5 per share, you will feel as happy as you can. Keep patient, don't panic and you will be just fine.
I hope this and assurances from Jogj99, pdub, NickD, Alfa, LS, Sanchez and many others who went through the exact same situation as you in percentage terms but bought their way through it. If you believe in the fundamentals and the reality of the unveiled story of which every piece of the jigsaw is fitting into place yet again under the masterful control of Fortune and Mikhail you will do well. It is possible in the future the annual dividend could be higher than today's SP of 26p. Then you will be feeling much better. Some may see this as fanciful but I can tell you many well-researched investors can see this as a reality here. That is why we are so strong as a community. Keep strong Mark. All the best.

Cheers, RK

Pdub, again, I would echo every acknowledgment for your work to turn the conference call into text. Thank you so much! This interview should be a reference piece for anyone wanting to understand what is really going on with vanadium prices. I hope if Alfa has time this transcript with your permission can be added to the latest articles on TBP! Nobody knows more about the vanadium market than Terry Perles - https://s22.q4cdn.com/197308373/files/doc_financials/quarter/2019/q1/Largo-Resources-Q12019.mp3
So ladies and gents, we can expect to see the demand increasing dramatically and prices of vanadium prices rising very quickly soon! Take note of the limitations of niobium on rebar and its limited potential and don't forget that there is only one active mine in the world for this mineral in Brazil! Not even the Chinese will risk that strategy. Vanadium is the key mineral for steel strengthening and Vametco have the best product in the world with Nitrovan 12 and Nitrovan 16 pre-weighed product which gets thrown directly into the steel process. https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/vametco-processing-plant-visit-408

Bushveld Minerals will be in a perfect position to take hold of the increased demand when it comes. We are already focusing on selling our product to the part of the world where our product can realise its best potential.

Cheers, RK

Gambitxjs - If anyone in the world understands the vanadium prices it is Terry Pearles. The thing is in 2018 we had a steady rise through the year. In 2019 we have had a very rapid reduction over 4 months. The rise once the demand comes back and there is little stock left will come back very quickly. If this happens at shortly after our 2018 figures, the JSE listing announcement and the Mokopane Licence being confirmed we can expect a huge influx of buyers to come back into the vanadium primary miners. We could see a mammoth increase in the share price. This working in conjunction with the completion of the Vanchem acquisition and focused plan to increase output above 1000 mtV at Vanchem would really spice up things. This is more likely. I think Fortune is going to be super cautious and he will have an opportunity to turn the heat up as he needs.
With the market awakening up day by day to VRFB this as predicted last year could be one incredible year for BMN! 26/27 p will look very cheap indeed!

Cheers, RK

Bushveld Minerals have come so far from the days of a speculative iron ore project. To one of the top primary vanadium miners and processors in the world in 6 years. This is through astute management, clever strategy and most importantly a team who understand the market and can develop and market the need. When you are selling an idea like the Dragon Dens, Griptit product you need to go all out to the market and shout loudly and produce as many as you can.
In the vanadium world which has been dominated by the steel market, you are driven by current demand. However, what sets the current market apart is that stationary energy storage is going to become as important as portable. With global emphasis changing on our plant to green and low carbon emissions, something new and revolutionary is needed. The world of VRFB is coming but it is about education and influence. Once the worlds power generators and the manufacturers of solar, wind and other green energies learn what energy storage can do, they will light the litmus paper on this. In fact, we can see that this is already happening with the articles shared on this BB everyday. The market is growing. Large capital projects take time and due diligence must take place. Once this is completed and the market fully understands the opportunity staring them in the face, the uptake will be fast. We can see this, but the market is catching up. By the time they are ready, we will be ready. You can see the Mikhail has already multiple projects which he has been influencing. An example was mistakenly published this week. But this is one of many coming. So by next year, when our electrolyte plant is in production, Mokopane license is in place the brakes will come off and Bushveld Minerals and Bushveld Energy will be ready to supply the market and ramp up production quickly and effectively.
So despite peoples naivety, this will mean that you can expect BMN to have a market cap in 2023 between £5 and £10 billion and a share price which will be a division of the number of shares at that time.
In the short term there will be a significant impact with the 2018 full accounts declaring a significant post-tax profit of many millions of pounds and shortly afterward a large influx of new investors from around the world, as well as significant interest in the home county of SA. Fortune and the team, have already been courting much support in Africa and many investors will be coming on board. Significant buying pressure will have a significant impact on the share price and it will be up not down. UK investors will not be looking to miss out on this opportunity.
So Inevitable here means, success and great reward. Patience here will continue to be well rewarded.
Cheers, RK

Quarter Updates & News03 May 2019 10:11
Quarter Updates & News29 Apr 2019 14:49
Just a summary to see the picture.

Q4 - 2017 - All together 22nd January - Vametco - 631 mtV

2018

Q1 - Lemur Holdings - 5th April
Q1 - Bushveld Energy - 11th April
Q1 - Bushveld Vametco - 27th April - 731 mtV

Q2 - Lemur Holdings - 4th July
Q2 - Bushveld Energy - 11th July
Q2 - Bushveld Vametco - 22nd August - 629 mtV

Q3 - Lemur Holdings - 17th October
Q3 - Bushveld Energy - 29th November
Q3 - Bushveld Vametco - 9th November - 537 mtV

Q4 - Bushveld Vametco - 30th January 2019 - 657 mtV
Q4 - Lemur - 13th February 2019
Q4 - Bushveld Energy – 27th March 2019

Total production for 2018 - 2554 mtV

Strong EBITA up 349% year on year to $107.5 million.

2019

Q1 – Lemur - 10th April 2019 - Project on target and signed PPF $1m funding from DBSA. BFS is completed by Sinohydro. EPC contract negotiations underway. SEIA due in Q2. Very positive update! BMN is delivering a huge project!

1st May 2019 - Suprise RNS - Bushveld Purchase Vanchem to increase output to 4200 mtV over 5 years ready to receive ore from Bushveld Mokopane which has its mining licenses. Bushveld Vanchem will produce initially 960mtV per annum and will become one of the most profitable aspects of the Bushveld Minerals Group.

Q1 – Bushveld Vametco – 15th May - 649 mtV with a record monthly production of 270 mtV in March. Lower production costs of US$18.9 to 19.5 per kgV and guidance for 2019 of 2800 to 2900 mtV. With more possible. New incentives and strengthened management team to bring drive and motivation to the team.

Q1 – Bushveld Energy soon!

Other news due soon:

- 2018 Full Accounts
- Bushveld Minerals Dividend Policy and possibly a token dividend in 2019
- Brits Mine plans for the future
- JSE Listing end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3
- Mokopane Mining License to supply Bushveld Vanchem, Ore Directly to China and eventually a greenfield processing plant. Mokopane has the ability to provide ore for up to 25000 mtV per annum if required.
- News on Bushveld Energy commencing the electrolyte and VRFB assembly plant

Bushveld is committed to increasing the vanadium mining output to 10,000 mtV in the medium term 3 to 5 years
Bushveld is building the Electrolyte plant to produce an initial output of 200 MWh of electrolyte and expandable to 1000 MWh
Lemur is on track to deliver a mine and power project in Madagascar and create over 1000 jobs benefiting the economy in a major way.

Pressure has returned on global vanadium demand and prices are starting to rise again which means our profits are going to be increasing again too in Q2.

So you can see clearly there is much to raise interest and all the substance needed going forward to raise our stock price considerably towards our broker targets of 90p and way beyond!

Brasi - that is a very good summary.

This company looks to have a phenomenal asset value. But, that is before it is turned into product! Take the Vanadium, turn it into Electrolyte and lease it over 20 years, then recycle it and sell it agian. then you can at least double that value if not more!

This company is looking like exceptional value! Or exceptionally undervalued. In 2 to 3 years time visitors to this board should come back and have a fresh look at the share price and market cap. They will be shocked.

Cheers, RK

I am joining my fellow group of posters come LSE we need your support and you need to be fair. Will not be posting for the time being.

I am looking forward to the Vametco update and it will be very interesting to see if the information determining where the company is currently selling most Nitrovan to is. In recent presentations, the distribution of our deliveries was focused on the US market. 60% being exported to the US. Only 16% going to Europe. I would imagine we may well have switched more to the US and less to Europe.
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/March-2019-Corporate-Presentation.pdf - see slide 10

The shipment logs to the US look very strong based on the information from TBP:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/nitrovan-shipments-to-the-us-183

The prices are held strongest in the US. But the market in China will grow very strong over the year ahead with investment in infrastructure and VRFB projects over the coming months will suck all vanadium production and inventory very quickly.

So even if the demand in Europe is slow the rest of the world is looking very strong. It should be considered too if the US is unwilling to take any vanadium from China with cost tariffs in place, then this will put more pressure on demand outside China.

The time is coming when Vanadium Redox Flow Battery technology will take a larger slice of the energy storage market and potentially may well dominate the stationary storage sector and then we can be sure that the ramp-up of supply from Bushveld Minerals and the production of Vanadium Electrolyte from Bushveld Energy could well be perfectly timed.

The pressure is coming on Glencore if they lose their dominant position on vanadium supply and pricing in Europe if they lose the contract for vanadium supplied from Largo later this year.

Times are changing and the pressure will build, but Bushveld m~inerals are looking very well placed to become one of the strongest players in the market which is great for shareholders. With Short term broker targets of 45p and even 90p from our Nomad Broker SP Angel, we look as described as a very strong buy as suggested by SP Angel. When the market actually wakes up to our financial position and profits you should expect to see and a greater level of buying pressure to push up our stock price.

Exciting times, but please research as much as you can.

Cheers, RK

Well Ray, I think it was best to keep Chika on copy as she may confirm some more detail to share with John, so he might be able to create a more accurate picture. He has to be fair come back to me directly before. So i hold a glimmer of hope here.

He has to put the figures right on estimated production though as kg against mtV is a factor of 1000 out.

I really feel that once the election is out of the way in SA, the 2018 accounts are out, which should be well publicised around the globe. This in conjunction with the full joint JSE listing and shortly after the listing it would be perfect if the Mokopane License was finally awarded with a very strong update from Bushveld Energy on the Electrolyte and VRFB assembly plant with new jobs and the huge potential. SA will like this story and they will be able to invest in it.

I expect a very strong re-rate from June onwards.

Cheers, RK

Well Ray, I think it was best to keep Chika on copy as she may confirm some more detail to share with John, so he might be able to create a more accurate picture. He has to be fair come back to me directly before. So i hold a glimmer of hope here.

He has to put the figures right on estimated production though as kg against mtV is a factor of 1000 out.

I really feel that once the election is out of the way in SA, the 2018 accounts are out, which should be well publicised around the globe. This in conjunction with the full joint JSE listing and shortly after the listing it would be perfect if the Mokopane License was finally awarded with a very strong update from Bushveld Energy on the Electrolyte and VRFB assembly plant with new jobs and the huge potential. SA will like this story and they will be able to invest in it.

I expect a very strong re-rate from June onwards.

Cheers, RK

Faramog,
I have written to John Meyer to ask about his 2019 predictions as this does not make sense. I copied in Chika too. Given that Vametco is expected to give 3000 to 3375 (80 to 90% of nameplate plant throughput) mtV plus Vanchem under our ownership will be 480 mtV.
I also pointed out that his vanadium production figures are out by a factor of 1000. Not ideal for the anyone looking in thinking the figures are very low!

SP Angel like to be conservative as are the pricing predictions. But we should all remember that low vanadium pricing will make Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries very commercial and much more attractive and this is a very very good thing for Bushveld Energy! Given that the revenue from BE is likely to be 10 times that of the vanadium mining and process that is very important indeed.

Hopefully, this will be updated and re-issued.

Cheers, RK

Conclusion: The combination of Mokopane with Vanchem is a great way forward for Bushveld Minerals. The deal given immediate access to production and near-term expansion at relatively low capital cost and technical risk.

It broadens the range of value-added vanadium products and enables greater operational flexibility with vanadium pentoxide to feed Bushveld Energy’s planned electrolyte plant.

This should give the team greater confidence to take on contracts for vanadium electrolyte for the next generation of VFRB batteries to be built in South Africa for energy storage and grid balancing.

A worrying number of fires in Li-ion storage facilities suggests that VFRB may not only be a more economic way forward but may also be the only relatively fire-safe way forward for Megawatt-scale grid storage.

SP Angel retain their Strong Buy recommendation

The valuation rises to 90 pence per share from 87p/s previously!

could also expand further in time if the supply deficit widens and prices continue to support additional supply.
This is good news for consumers as it offers the prospect for an additional vanadium supply into a market which could potentially see longer term constraint as banks may struggle to finance many other vanadium projects.
Assumptions: We have reduced our ferro-vanadium price assumption to $60/kgV from US$75/kgV for 2019 and 2020 based on the assumption that ferro-vanadium prices average current price levels through the rest of the year.
Our price assumptions of US$55/kgV for 2021 and US$45/kgV for 2022 onwards remain the same.
We suspect ferro-vanadium prices may dip further before recovery later in the year as Chinese officials better implement government regulations introduced last year.
Production: We have combined our production assumptions for the Vametco and Vanchem plants. Our new production figures reflect our best guess for the combined output of the two plants. We see an acceleration in the increase in vanadium production but are more cautious as we assume production is around 80% of capacity going forward.
Bushveld Energy: We have modelled some basic assumptions for Bushveld Energy for incorporation into our valuation. We assume relatively modest margins for the business on project management of Vanadium Flow Redox Batteries ‘VFRBs’ into the South African grid. We also assume a more modest margin on the production of electrolyte based on the value of the vanadium pentoxide contained.