Member Info for Richard365054

It is a considerable turnaround that AML are having to achieve. Under the previous Palmer regime the die had been set and the company had begun it's freefall. The single biggest contributory factor was the new Vantage being a poorly conceived and signed off design and price positioned a very big leap above the previous model. Many existing owners couldn't afford to upgrade and the design abnormalities deterred many who could. AML then had to heavily discount the model in order to move volume and the monthly lease amount became laughable. The whole situation effectively rubbished the brand and the Chief Designer (Reichman) and previous CEO (Palmer) should rightly shoulder the blame. I know I've been critical of Reichman a few times but he does talk in very strange terms sometimes. Years ago R J Mitchell of Supermarine fame famously said that if anyone talks in such a gobbledegook fashion that you can't understand them, take it from him that they are talking rubbish.

Having said all that, without Stroll the brand would have ceased or the name bought and ended up in China. He may not be the most appealing of characters, but the new hierarchy in Aston Martin are truly delivering. I count 6 model launches since Herr Moers took over and the momentum is not slackening. 2022 will be another year of growth and impressive figures (madness in Ukraine permitting) leading into 2023 when the real momentum will really start.

There are those that have a voice that seek to undermine the company for whatever reason, but without the hierarchy that exists at AML we wouldn't have a company. Plus, thank goodness we have a petrolhead as a CEO who understands the appeal of an ICE car and knew he had to knock some heads together and get rid of some others. Saving the company and hundreds of jobs was far more important than a few bruised egos.

Not long to wait. Mid day unveiling.

Considering all Valkyries were sold out years ago there isn't much advantage gained by AML offering one to a scribe to road test. Anybody fortunate enough to own one would be very reluctant to offer one to be thrashed around a circuit or test track. Perhaps David Coulthard will give an insight when he takes delivery of the example he has on order.
My own thinking is that a considerable number of these will become works of art and be rarely aired. I'm thinking of the McLaren F1 that was barely used from new, still san on it's original tyres and was worth millions. Many of these hypercars will be bought as investments - the last of a breed.

Play the podcast and listen to Q and A from the investment companies' questions. It's clear and unequivacable in one of Tobias Moers' replies. I've never read the transcript.

c26, if you go to the podcast of the third quarter results from last November, Tobias Moers gives the information of the Sports/GT launch schedule in an answer to one of the investment company's questions. You'll have to go through and listen to them to find the detail.

Just to counter the usual scurrilous mischief making that appears on here, the one man I do believe when he speaks is Tobias Moers as it is his reputation that is on the line. In November at the 3rd quarter release of results he clarified that the heavily revised Sports/GT models would be launched at the end of quarter one/beginning quarter two of 2023. That is near enough twelve months from now and from that it is a fair assumption that deliveries will commence in quarter three.
That provides ample time for volumes to be significantly higher in 2023, reinforcing the momentum that will be starting this year with the three model DBX range, probably sold out V12 Vantage and increasing Valkyrie deliveries.

Always difficult to calculate volume figures for 12 months hence but it is critical in order to formulate a picture of the company and it's likely debt.
Valkyrie is between £2.5m and £3.0m depending on whether it's road, track or spyder and many will have Q additions elevating their final price.
I would suggest the 6 cylinder DBX hybrid figures from China will be significant as this was the priority for the company. They would know the likely benefits hence the initial focus on this vehicle before the 707.
Vanquish has a launch date in the second half of 2023 so probably unlikely to impact sales in that year. Similarly the Valhalla will come on stream for two years from 2024.
There should be a sizeable surge in sales for DBS, DB11 and Vantage following their major make overs and launches in early 2023. Without a doubt 2023 will see the acceleration of volumes, although 7000 plus a few more should be feasible this year.

Anyone who would like to see how these two face up to one another the head to head is on CarWow.

I would suggest people read the details of the article as it's one terrific hoot. I would think it's 2 years since a new Rapide was registered and 3 years since a new Vanquish was registered. Highly amusing - I thought it was April 1st.

Assuming Sports and GT levels stay the same in 2022, the targeted growth for the year lies with the DBX and the 8% total growth for the core brand range would mean a 16% increase in SUV sales. Valkyrie and V12 Vantage I think are in addition to the core range.
With regard to 2025 estimates, why would there be a need for the DBX needing to achieve 60% of sales and achieving 6000 units. You would probably expect the heavily redesigned and relaunched DB11, DBS and Vantage models to achieve 4000 sales between them where they've currently achieved 3070 and then on top you have Valhalla and Vanquish. Valhalla is a two year production model, with Aston estimating 500 units per year. I don't know the estimates for the Vanquish and I also don't know which will be the hybrid and electric models that will launch in 2024 and 2025. Both will be expected to achieve certain volumes so these would need to be taken into account. To hit the 10000 unit level in 2025 it appears to me that the Sports/GT models will probably achieve at least 5000 units.

I remember watching Top Gear some years ago when Clarkson first talked about the Ford GT. it would probably have been around 2016 and subsequently about 1350 units have been made - upto 250 units per year. The company making the tub was Multimatic who also make the tub for the Valkyrie. On another site one poster suggests the company can only make one Valkyrie tub every six weeks. I guess you draw your own conclusions.
Some of the criticisms since final results two days ago have focused on the projected 8% increase in volume for 2022, suggesting it's a pretty poor growth rate when the DBX has two new models in it's range. To add a bit of perspective, I doubt AML expect any real movement in DB11, DBS and Vantage sales this year when a very substantial redesign and relaunch is due in early 2023. If I was a potential customer I would be hanging fire unless I wanted one of the last models of the current line up. Which places the focus on the DBX and means Aston expect a sales increase in the order 500 to 600 units. Tobias Moers has come across as someone who doesn't promise what he can't deliver, so I would suggest this figure is probably a little light. AML also talk about the core model volumes and I would suggest that V12 Vantage and Valkyrie are on top of these numbers which would suggest circa 7000 units and AVP across all models around £200K for 2022.

High time there was common sense applied to the proposed ban on ICE engines and that the focus should be on ultra low emission vehicles.
The technology already exists for extremely clean ICE vehicles but the focus is completely on battery vehicles and all the problems on infrastructure and cost. The experts can tell us how much CO2 was produced in the world, but we should be told the pollution created manufacturing an electric car, the particle levels from it's tyres caused by the substantial weight of battery packs and how many people out in the sticks without regular public transport will ever afford a battery car to commute.
ICE engines have evolved hugely over the past century and their relative simplicity and lightness shouldn't just be thrown on the rubbish tip. With access to hydrogen and renewable fuels there needs to be a reassessment of all options and not just blind devotion to individuals like Musk.

With what is going on in the east, I thought it's pointless getting too depressed as you cannot influence the direction of the share price. Time to chill and just hope common sense prevails. Had a look at Lloyd's Bank and they're down about 11%.

The final results talk about an 8% increase for this year of core models, leading one to assume around 6700 units. But presume Vantage V12 on top of this plus of course Valkyrie. This would add circa 300 units and so we're looking at roundabout 7000 for 2022.
Valkyrie production will run into 2024 and possibly overlap Valhalla, which is being scheduled for a two year run of a maximum of 1000 units. The Vanquish ( why do they not wish to use the name) must therefore considerably overlap with the Valhalla.
Wouldn't we all love to see Valkyrie in WEC and at Le Mans. How the car would fit in to the latest regs I have no idea as I haven't followed the formula since the original intention back in the Palmer days was dropped.

I posted earlier this month my own estimates for 2022 and I don't see volumes much north of 7,000, bearing in mind that the hybrid and 707 versions of the DBX are probably going to give a 25%-30% boost compared to last year. There's also, besides Valkyrie, the impact of the V12 Vantage, although this is going to be a low volume model.
The factor holding the year on year figures back will be the substantial redesign of all core sports and GT models, which I'm sure a lot of potential purchasers will wait for. Even so a 2022 turnover around £1.425 Billion is a huge increase, with AVP in excess of £200K. 2023 will show the big acceleration through the core model revamps, but even so, 2022 is going to be a sizable jump compared to last year.

I'm assuming the invigilators don't peruse on weekends so it can be a period without interruption.

I had a look at those analysts' estimates, bearing in mind that some appear to have been included before the 707 launch details. The average and high figures were interesting because they projected turnover as well and the AVP figures were well north of £200K. That appears optimistic although the high estimate volume figure isn't as I expect the 707 to be a very successful variant and we yet to have any figures for the Chinese hybrid version. There must be a YouTuber out there who has tested the 6 cylinder model.

In reference to savings per vehicle just in regard to the paint process being centralised at St Athan and the Gaydon plant being closed, Tobias Moers has been very specific with the cost savings per vehicle.

contrariankiks, go back over the last year and more and read all the reports, results and interviews from Aston Martin and Tobias Moers and you'll find the answers to your questions. It'll need plenty of work on your part but for a large clue focus some of your attention on the paint facilities and processes that Herr Moers has referenced in the past. He can be quite specific and he doesn't make empty statements. I'm not doing any work for you.

It's interesting to read the Autocar articles, particularly regarding the redesign of the Vantage, DB11 and DBS. The consensus is that these will be very significant redesigns and reposition the cars to achieve 4,000 vehicle sales per annum. That sounds very achievable considering the current line up achieved 3,000 units in 2021 and you have already the soon to be released Vantage V12 to boost this year's figures considerably.

I'm struck by just how much the company is bringing to the market place in a very short time:
Valkyrie
Valkyrie spider
Valhalla
DBX 6 cylinder hybrid
DBX 707
Vantage V12
Vantage redesign
DBS redesign
DB11 redesign

This all equates to 9 models in a two and a half year period since Tobias Moers took over as CEO. It's worth remembering that there wouldn't have been a functioning Aston Martin today without Laurence Stroll. Andy Palmer did a lot of things right but dropped the focus of the company completely with the Vantage redesign ( Marek Reichman also wholly at fault ). The car should never have been signed off and only through huge discounts were prospective buyers persuaded to take the cars. The company had signed off it's own death warrant and through good fortune someone came along who saw an opportunity to save this iconic brand. It appears Tobias Moers is a hard task master but thank goodness he is. He's also brought the top engine man from AMG who knows the V8 engine from the sump upwards and this will, with a significant redesign, form the basis of the power unit for the Valhalla and Vanquish.

Herr Moers has made significant efficiencies to the operations of the two factories at Gaydon and St Athan. They amount cumulatively to an eight figure sum. I draw comparisons with Rolls Royce and Bentley and how long it took BMW and Bentley to turn their two acquisitions around and Aston Martin are moving far, far more quickly.

With regards to volumes and turnover and AVP, I've already given my estimations for 2022, but I reiterate again that 7,000 to 7,200 vehicles is completely achievable with an AVP of circa £200,000 and turnover in the region of £1.425 Billion.
That's one heck of a sea change.

Sorry yes. Just UK registrations.