Member Info for Richard365054

When I post a message the spaces are rather scrunched up. Apologies. Aston's figures read 111 sales. 478 sales ytd. + 49% 2021 compared to 2020.

Aston 111 478 ytd + 49% for year 2021
Bentley 103 527 ytd + 23%
Ferrari 90 477 ytd + 27%
Lamborghini 71 232 ytd + 68%
Maserati 58 268 ytd + 42%
McLaren 30 187 ytd + 9%
Rolls Royce 22 139 ytd + 38%

DBX 59 (321)
DBS 28 (148)
DB11 21 (143)
Vantage 85 (288)

Total 193 (900)

I noticed there were some comments referring to Valkyrie and delivery dates yesterday. I think I've mentioned I filtered long ago one or two of the reactive posters on here - utter waste of space and they remain forever filtered. From an impeccable source and to set the record straight, Valkyrie deliveries are expected to commence in Q3 with majority in Q4 as per weighting of profit guidance for the year. So effectively as previously stated.

1st 4 months 2021: 719
1st 4 months 2020: 483

DB11 25
DBS 26
Vantage 58
DBX 48

My own feeling is that UK sales (registrations) momentum will continue to improve through the year as showrooms were closed from November to April. I also think H2 will be very good as Valkyrie and Speedster come on line, boosting the revenue from the core 4 models. I suspect there is also quite a pent up demand awaiting the DBX derivatives. There's always a proportion of customers who will wait for the performance orientated model and the success of the Urus has shown there's a market awaiting for Aston to announce this derivative.

Aston Martin 111 YTD 478 +49% on 2020
Bentley 108 YTD 527 +23% on 2020
Ferrari 90 YTD 477 +27% on 2020
Lamborghini 71 YTD 232 +68% on 2020
Maserati 58 YTD 268 +42% on 2020
McLaren 30 YTD 187 +9% on 2020
Rolls Royce 22 YTD 139 +38% onn2020

This quarter will be the last one not to feel the benefit of Valkyrie and Speedster deliveries. Not knowing what the roll out of Valkyrie will be makes it difficult to gauge the impact of these vehicles' sales, but if a conservative one unit per week was achieved this would equate to 20 Vantages sold at list, effectively 1000 Vantages for each of 3 years sold at list. Speedster comes in on top of this, plus the open top Valkyrie which so far has not had unit numbers offered. Before the Valkyrie roll out has been completed, Valhallah would be on line and Vanquish would be in the pipeline.

I think the unit price on Valkyrie is £2.5 million and £750,000 for the Speedster. So that's £500 million before Q division get involved. Herr Moers talked about an open top Valkyrie, but read into that that the numbers would be on top of existing orders. Valhallah was positioned at £1 million with a run of 500 units.

It's difficult to judge Q2, but it's probably the last quarter that won't benefit from Valkyrie and Speedster deliveries. Thereafter, the figures should get a bounce from these high premium cars, plus the profits built therein.
The promised announcements for Q2 and beyond are exciting - I think we maybe underestimate the impact of a high performance DBX as clients in some markets certainly prioritise performance. It would be fascinating to see a DBX outperform the Urus. The fact that AML will have at least 3 versions will only be good for figures.
Everything coming out seems to suggest that Sports/GT figures are above expectation, so forthcoming facelifts and improved interiors will only add to the momentum. I believe back in March Herr Moers said there would be a reveal of the redesigned Valhallah around July, so perhaps Pebble Beach may be the ideal time considering the potential size of the market plus the release of the second DBX model.

It does seem that AML were previously a strange marriage overseen by someone who had a vision for the product range but no vision for the production and efficiences needed to survive. The product range we have today was basically instigated by Andy Palmer, but he also oversaw the structure and production within the company, and crucially would have signed off the various models as ready for production. What has come to light since Herr Moers came on board is how inefficient and costly AMLs production techniques were. I have no problem with one paint shop with a capacity for 12,000 vehicles rather than 2 underused facilities in different locations. This may have cost jobs to facilitate, but it's undoubtedly saved a lot more plus given the company a future. Andy Palmer came from a volume manufacturer and probably couldn't see how AML's production techniques needed rationalising. He carried the can at the end of the day, but he also instigated a recovery that we see in the product range today.

I read all the press releases and interviews of senior personnel but am still waiting for any reference to design shortcomings. No doubt because it's personal these are all kept in house, but I would like to have a breakdown of sales for the new/old Vantage nose and why their Creative Design VP refers to AML as Design Engineers. Personally, when you're selling products to realise peoples' dreams then style and styling has a very significant place. Ferrari almost always get their styling right and yet their cars look individual. They produce cars that often tug at the emotions and I would argue that the DB9 and previous Vantage did this and was partly why they were such immediade successes.

Herr Moers made a comment that I found interesting, notwithstanding the versions of the DBX yet to come. He said he was looking at additional applications for the Cosworth V12, rather than it just being an engine for the Valkyrie. When the development costs have already been absorbed it would be a juicy consideration. I have one thought in mine - a final hurrah for the long distance GT car, front engined and maybe with all that power, four wheel drive. But certainly a long bonnet in the vein of the 365GTB4 Daytona, a way of saying farewell to the type of car on which AML has been based for so many years. Reckon a seven figure price would get plenty of takers and be a very nice earner for the company. I believe the existing Cosworth has been signed off for 60,000 miles between rebuilds, so a detuned version of perhaps 800 BHP should be more than capable of a six figure run. It could be AML's Superfast, except a little bit quicker and even more glorious sounding.

From time to time, when I feel I have something to say, I enjoy making a contribution on this site. AML have had a place in my heart since I bought a DB4 GT - sadly it was a corgi model, but I still have it although I streamlined the lights with a file when I was an unruly teenager as I knew it would be faster. In those days the model was an older DB4 casting.
I've taken great pleasure in filtering a couple of posters on here going back months, but it seems one or both still continue to ruffle feathers. I get delight knowing I don't waste my time reading their utterances. I've said it before so perhaps for the last time - these characters will live on if you don't respond. You have power at your fingertips to upset them so just use it and remove their audience. I promise you'll feel better.

First quarter last year, sales of sports/GTs were heavily discounted. Sales this year may be similar, but margins are considerably higher with dealer incentives lower. People are still buying these models, but they are happy that exclusivity and build to order means residuals are a lot better. Lamborghini sales of their Urus heavily outnumber their supercars and AML are seeing this for themselves. Once Aston revitalise their sports/GT cars the ratio might rebalance slightly. China is not a major market for 2 seater cars and undoubtedly the closure of UK salesroom for almost 5 months will have had an effect on their sales here. AML need a mainline mid engined sportscar but their focus, correctly, has been on an SUV initially. They can't do everything at once.

The second quarter we are now in will be the last one for quite some time unaffected by high value/high margin specials about to come on stream. For the next 3 or 4 years these will contribute approximately $1.5 Billion in turnover, with the Speedster and Valkyrie followed by the Valhallah. The margins on these vehicles, totalling around 765 units, will cover the bulk of the loan interest payments. Three months ago the order book for GTs and Sports cars was ahead of expectations and DBX was strong. With the hybrid DBX coming in the next quarter and the reopening of UK showrooms after a 5 month shutdown, I don't expect bad news to suddenly overtake the brand. Considering the world is still in the grip of a pandemic, Aston Martin have maintained their focus.

Bentayga March total : 109

March.
DB11 : 66
DBS : 60
Vantage: 102
DBX : 108
Total for March : 341 plus 007 DB5s and any others.
Total for 1st quarter : 550 plus 007 DB5s and any others.

Conversely, I've done a random check of 10 UK Aston Martin dealerships and haven't come across one offering a brand new DBX from stock. Near new and courtesy vehicles I have come across, but not brand new from stock. Do your own checks.

I will pass comment on some of the statements made today simply because my understanding of facts or details is somewhat different. Each to their own however and for whatever reasons people have bought AML shares is entirely down to them. They don't need justification or approval by anyone else when it is their money.

Valkyrie's contribution to revenue is equivalent to 20 Vantages for each one sold. Approximately $3.5 million each although each one will no doubt be customised and rather more than list price. Andy Palmer once stated the people who wanted one was six times the number that would be made, but exclusivity is partly what drives demand and a greater production run would not necessarily have yielded substantially higher orders. The technology will certainly be transferred to the Valhallah as this will be a $1.4 million car, then to be followed by Vanquish. All these models feature on dealer websites in the US - whether in other countries I have not bothered to look as I still cannot afford one!

Aston are still very much at an early stage with their model line up, particularly in respect to hybrid and electric. Vantage was an out and out flop for reasons I have gone into before. The revisions since last year have helped and it is now almost the model it should have been from the beginning. But like all models the switchgear and infotainment let them down - hopefully the model releases that are coming thick and fast will remedy this. Both DB11 and DBX need facelifts inside and out so in reality there is a lot of work still to do.

DBX was never going to be a one trick pony in it's current form. It satisfied one segment of the market but this market is now crowded and substantial options and alternatives are expected by well heeled customers. The forthcoming hybrid and no doubt a coupe and/or 7 seater will broaden the appeal. Will the hybrid offer Urus performance remains to be seen. But let's correctly position AML near the base of the hill they still have to climb. If you accept the Volante versions of the Sports and GT models, plus the new F1 Vantage, AML's product range is around 8 models. I haven't included Speedster, Valkyrie, 007 DB5 or any of the other specials.

Someone pointed out how well Bentley are doing, which they are, but they've taken years to climb their hill to where they are today. Plus, their current model range is around 11 models plus you can add Mulliner to this.
Ferrari, a competitor of AML, have a mystique that has been developed over the years. For many years their cars were unreliable and poorly built. When their F1 division was doing badly their road division was doing well. That seems to be the case today. People buy Ferraris without having seen them or driven them. Many new models have a black market appeal way above their list price. Buy one in order to sell for immediate gain and you'll not have a future order accepted, so the penalties are real. AML haven't reached this point but they're working

I've been curious to have a look on line at a few of the AML dealerships in the US and particularly at the cars they offer from stock. I took note of what Tobias Moers stated in his year end report with reference to completed deliveries of demonstrator and floor plan stock for the DBX. The wholesale figure was greater than the retail figure for all models but this was completely unsurprising taking into account this statement. Overall it was also stated that wholesale Sports/ GT stock had been reduced by over 1500 units and was going to be completed ahead of schedule.
Certainly dealerships carry 2 or 3 courtesy DBXs and these are also automatically listed on Ebay. I can't imagine many people buy a $200,000 new car without trying one first hand. Plus I would imagine a DBX is the perfect courtesy car if your own model is in for service or repair, whether that is a Sports, GT or SUV. Also, it's particularly interesting what the proprietor of a dealership had to say about orders and deliveries.
One area where AML will have struggled is in the UK because of covid19 and the impact on closed dealerships. It will have been a substantial impact but hopefully that is coming to an end for the last time in a little over a week. This should considerably help their order book, notwithstanding that the UK represents almost a quarter of all AML car sales.