Member Info for Ricardo2019

Hi itsawrap, I asked a similar question on 4th Aug and had two responses. I'll paste the stuff below - hope the formatting isn't too rubbish.

Heid
4 Aug '22

Concrete pouring in enlarged bund ready to move the separator to new location

https://twitter.com/UnionJackOilplc/status/1555072730462044161?s=20&t=aTgwa-YYuJUTkFUUcai44Q

Coming along nicely!

https://twitter.com/UnionJackOilplc/status/1555085628383035392?s=20&t=aTgwa-YYuJUTkFUUcai44Q

These guys certainly not hanging about

https://twitter.com/UnionJackOilplc/status/1555091578833739776?s=20&t=aTgwa-YYuJUTkFUUcai44Q

And there we are

https://twitter.com/UnionJackOilplc/status/1555106025577005058?s=20&t=aTgwa-YYuJUTkFUUcai44Q

Ricardo2019
4 Aug '22
I've lost track so I'm going to be lazy and ask you rather than read the RNS's, sorry. This work is for a pad for a gas separator, right? And they're moving it because the old location wasn't suitable?

Heid
4 Aug '22
Moving the separator means no longer under test an things have to comply with production well site regulations.

Plus of course my belief also is with Wressle being HUGE, an with more zones imo, which will be picked up in Gaffney Cline report , more storage will be going in some point in the future.

Pboo
4 Aug '22

Heid
I think you will find that the new bund is part of the sites planning regulations as the original bund was thought to have shortfalls.
It will be classed as a production well when the necessary permits from the County Council, Enviroment Agency and the OGA are in place.

https://apps.northlincs.gov.uk/application/pa-2018-1316

Good summary. So the licence transfer is key, do we know what's going on with that?

Very interesting and potentially excellent news. Deal is subject to approval from Russian government and shareholders. We should watch this closely.

Russian defence ministry. LOL. Ask them what air defence doing? Hahaha.

Another Russia facist mouthpiece for the green bin.

> We collected the main thing from the briefing of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

Uh? Why would anyone report anything the Russians say as gospel? The same idiots who expect educated people to believe that the Moskva sank due to a ammo explosion/shoddy seasmanship/storm/giant squid attack* and the Crimea airfield explosions were caused by cigarettes. LMAO.

*ok, I made that one up but it's more likely than sinking in a storm.

Damn, why didn't I buy at 1.6. I kept waiting for 1.50 and we either was just over it, or it was only there for a very short time. I'm going to bet this is now the new bottom until news.

Hi milnrowmug, I appreciate your reply, thank you. You make good points. Good luck to us all and I hope we can soon all crack open the champagne at the £1 party.

Hi milnrowmug, you mentioned stellar lift-off. Can we discuss that? So I've been in UJO since May 2019 and bought 5 tranches over the years. When I bought in I did expect lift-off at some point.

Like a typical AIM mug punter I haven't traded UJO at all. I should have because that's the only real way to make money on AIM (I haven't because I'm not a natural trader and didn't know when to). So, here we are now, 3 years later and I think UJO is in a good position. Not great, but good enough to expect uplift from here. But I have given up on expecting a rocket to the moon any time soon because while everything takes so long. I'm sure we'll have more wells, but not for years. Maybe I'm wrong - I would be very happy to be corrected. And maybe the CPR will be the catalyst. But I've kinda given up hope. I'll hold for a long term decent gain, but I'm not expecting fireworks. Tell me I'm being too pessimistic please.

> is peace talk coming???

Many things are coming. But if there was a whiff of peace this share would rocket to the moon. And I don't expect the market makers to let anyone here get in at the start of that rise when it comes.

The LSE price isn't updating - stuck at 5.25. Phone (Google based?) shows 5.46. What are you guys seeing?

Hi mizman, thanks for the youtube link. I do like his style - it's generally polished (human voice too, not computer generated!) and the analysis is alright. I that he seems to assume Russian combat reports are accurate, and he also states several times that he knows the Russian plans for future operations (might be a language issue but he talks about his sources). Interesting vid though and his report today supports what I was saying about the Donbas front. I've added this source to my watchlist so thanks for suggesting it.

> Please do not waste all our time by posting your opinions as facts.

Good luck finding anything to read anything on this board apart from Mac's copy and paste posts then, lol. I'll post what and what I like, cheers!

Hi Mizman, I'm glad you replied because you've touched upon the one big thing I realised that didn't. The Donbas military gains - a war-winning long term campaign for the Russians, or the result of clever delaying tactics from Ukraine to allow them to bring their long-term strategy to bear? You suggest the entire front is collapsing, but I don't see much evidence of that. However I do see evidence of fairly steady, slow Russian gains while the Ukrainians resist heavily. Certainly the traditional definition of a conventional military collapse hasn't occurred. Else the Russians would have made far greater gains. Perhaps that has been more due to Russian logistical issues rather than Ukrainian resilience, but whatever the cause, I think the question of whether Donbas progress is going to be a war winner is still to be answered. I wouldn't rule out a Russian win through attrition. It's in the balance at this time IMHO.

"Kharkiv offensive" - I always saw that as disinformation. I wasn't suprised to see nothing much happen and I'm not sure that's too meaningful in the long term. For Ukraine's military it's always been a case of the longer this goes on, the better (putting aside civilian tragedies) so talk of early counter-offensives before NATO weapons came through in large quantities was always suspect to me.

> End of the month will prove it to all

It's a date. Let's try to talk again then and see what has happened.

Aspen, If you aren't willing to debate in good faith please don't waste my time by asking questions.

> You say the war has a long way to run yet, please provide the evidence to support that statement.

I'd love to debate this. Military matters are right up my street. There is so much to talk about and I don't have time for 'War and Peace' right now so I'll try to summarise my view as such and hopefully I can come back with more later.

Look at the:
a) objectives of both sides - neither side has objectives that are easy to achieve in the short term.
b) resources of both sides - neither has enough resources to force a decisive result. Russia is scraping the manpower battle.
c) military progress of both sides - neither is currently making much in the way of progress towards achieving their objectives. Ukraine struggles to generate enough combat power to push the Russians back substantially (see operational maps of the Kherson area for details). The Russians are resorting to combing prisons for manpower and creating new battle groups from novices (admittedly Ukraine are training new troops too but their training is NATO standard, which is far superior). The Russians have had to go global tech like drones, and can throw bodies and artillery at the frontline while Ukraine tries to level the playing field with superior technology and tactics. These efforts are broadly cancelling each other out.
d) diplomacy - some minor progress on exports that benefit Russia more than Ukraine. No progress on the big issues.
e) Economic aspect - Ukraine is getting hammered but has Western funding to keep it going. Russia is getting hammered but put a large war chest aside prior to the conflict. They can keep going for a while yet.
f) Government - neither side looks like changing their ruler, or policies. No coup to get rid of Putin. He has broad support it seems in Russia. Zelensky stable in power with a mandate to defend Ukraine.

I look at these factors as they stand right now, and there's nothing in any of them that makes me think there could be a quick resolution coming from any quarter. Not even a ceasefire.

I have to go now for a meeting, but let me know if I've missed any major factors (I probably have). And if you wish to pick anything out for debate then I look forward to discussing with you.

> demilitarization of the West

They haven't stated that AFAIK. do you have a source? And if that was an objective then they are failing miserably. Even Germany is upping defence spending. The US defence industry is having a field day. Russia has shown the West why they can't demilitarise. Even Scandanavia agrees.

> Russia also demilitarizing them,

What does that even mean? Ukraine's combat power is only increasing as Russia is weakening. That is supported by evidence from both sides.

The main point relating to EUA here is that the war has a long way to run yet.

Warthogs aren't suitable for contested airspace, and despite Ukrainians successes in killing GBAD components Russia still has hundreds of S300 systems - for which an A10 is easy prey. That tangent aside, anyone who listens to a German dude parroting what Vlad told him is naive at best.

Of course, Russia wants an end to the war - but they want it on their terms which means Ukraine dissolved and the land annexed into Russia. Funnily enough, that's not looking very likely. So are Russia losing? I don't know. Stalemate looks more likely at this time. Question is, when does Russia start to lose, and then when do they realise that they are losing and start to negotiate in good faith?

There is no route to peace until Russia is stopped militarily. That's going to take a while - at least 9 months. Probably more like 2 years. Even so, it's not clear that Russia can be defeated totally - they could up the ante and mobilise to allow them to keep filling foxholes with bodies. The Ukrainians have done fantastically well, but the Russians are still very resourceful. The most likely scenario in my mind is a frozen conflict with some sort of ceasefire, as I'm not sure Ukraine can develop enough combat power to push the Russians off Ukrainian land, and I think Putin can resist sanctions for many years.

So, what's the outlook for EUA? In my mind, the BoD are doing the right thing now by keeping things on the down low. I'd love it if they can pull off a large asset sale to China now, but I suspect they want to wait for a better negotiating position. As a LTH who is well, well underwater and am not near retirement I am happy(ish) for them to do that. Admittedly I'd like an end to the saga but I have to be realistic. And if they have to mine it themselves, fine, I'll wait for the dividends. So I hold and remain patient, and somewhat calm. I won't be expecting peace anytime soon, Russia is nowhere near ready for that I'm afraid.

Added maxcady to the filter.