Member Info for rhubarbmk2

It was TH - almost at a brief parity at one stage, if I recall correctly. I think someone chucked a couple of million in, as a high-net wealth investor, and that seems to have started a series of very positive momentum. They will have made several M on that. I'd personally want more clinical data to invest in a company with a MCap of that magnitude, but maybe there have been some leaks etc - who knows. Good luck to them though, and their shareholders.

It just shows what a positive momentum drive can achieve. It would be nice to have one here. If someone finally invests in 401, that could do it.

I think RB is correct here. Too busy to do the QandA's, and Suzy is one of the most diligent professionals I've come across in the industry (about 20% apply to an e-mail the same day).

That's either a strong buy signal, or Teamhanz successfully recapitulated her written answers yesterday, and she's now having to rewrite them. :-)

I'm going for a QandA delay to give headroom for some imminent news, but I am in a buoyant mood today, so take that with a pinch of salt.

1. The intention is to publish the full VAL201 clinical readout in a peer-reviewed and respected Journal. This process will incorporate the additional work undertaken by PYC, but is likely to take several months to traverse the necessary steps to publication. This will be irrespective of whether VAL201 is out-licensed or sold during the intervening period.

(“D*mn right we are. Kevin’s just making some really annoying track changes – he’s on his third round. And Gerry, who usually does the finances, is trying to get stuck in too. Prof. Alan Boyd is ooo till September, and I need to think how I’ll respond when Mildred writes to the Journal demanding to be co-author”).

2. It has been a challenging period, but with the right team now in place, we are confident and optimistic that we will see added value for shareholders, and sustained growth in the long-term.

(“I have 6 contracts in front of me, but Shirley from legal still won’t let me sign anything”).

3. Independent market analysis has consistently stated that we are undervalued in our IP and potential clinical assets.

(“Sareum’s gone from 2-7p because Dr. Strange chucked in a million quid (WTF?!); RedX still haven’t revealed their Phase 1 efficacy data, and Scancell take 2 hours to flush the toilet. So, yes; we’re undervalued”).

4. Although I can’t personally comment on the perceived value of the current SP; as Directors, we recently purchased a number of shares, in line with contemporary rates of renumeration. Under FCA rules, we can only purchase company shares during periods when not subject to potentially price-sensitive information.

(“I’ve told my half-cousin Geoffrey to load up, on WhatsApp”).

RB: "It's just gone £10/share, over at VAL, dear. I'm very rich. Pack your bags".
Mrs: "Oh lovely. Where are we going? Somewhere hot, sunny, and tropical? Mauritius? The Seychelles?"
RB: "No. It's gone £10/share, over at VAL. I'm very rich. Pack your bags and do one".

:-)

Nomlungo - interesting link.

Roche love a good peptide - very, very, active, and particularly interested in this area - trying to find ones that work - like 201.

I'm still on the page that they believe that NH, but I did uptick your post, because it made me laugh, and, to be fair, other statements from the BOD have been offered about blockbuster years etc., which were perhaps a little green. But you can't carefully modify every single thing you ever say, otherwise you'll never open your mouth.

Re. 201; "Quietly confident" was used on the live QandA. "Actions will speak louder than words", I've heard a couple of times. I've picked up on too many very thinly-veiled hints about the very same topic now, to think that they are all just throwaways.

I just don't buy that you'd be saying the above repeatedly, if you weren't bob-on, 100% confident, that you were going to pull something off. They know if they didn't, that all the LTHs would come down like a tonne of bricks, and, that aside, I just don't think they play with that sort of bat. When you make statements such as that, we all hear and dissect them, and the clock starts ticking, so to speak. They know that goodwill around "we are working very hard" is finite.

I recall vividly something that Suzy said. To paraphrase, she basically said that the running of the 201 trial had had notable limitations, and not been ideal, by any measure. She then went on to say that she had been the CSO at the time, and that she bore some responsibility for that.

I honestly haven't heard anyone admit something like that in years. It's rare for a scientist to say "partly my fault", at least in my experience. And to add to that, some of the issues weren't even in the control of the previous management.

I took a lot from that statement about my general feeling toward her as a CEO. She's definitely not a Billy Bullshtter.

I may be completely wrong, of course. But, instinctively, my gut instinct is still to hold.

You are right about VAL as a whole, of course. Well below par, and never failing to historically disappoint. Suzy and the "new" team have had, what, about 16 months, now (including COVID lockdown phases). That change in manager started a new clock, at least in my view, albeit with familiar faces. It's a very different beast now, as far as I'm concerned.

However, I do have a date when I'll exit, if we get no progress, as I would expect any informed shareholder to. For me, that date isn't yet. I need to see more. The next 6 months are crucial, and the Company will make or break (in terms of SP). They're going to steer away from dilution and hold their own necks to the line, I think, to get third party involvement, before that time arrives. With an attitude like that, I still wager a "make".

Also; keep an eye out on the tobacco companies. Philip Morris has just bought Vectura and is moving "beyond nicotine", into respiratory meds. I don't think this will be the first, as these lads are absolutely awash with money, and they are looking to diversify.

I think that Suzy should approach BAT and offer them a share to develop VAL401. That would be a comprehensive full-circle service of irony, wouldn't it. Smoke too much >COPD>lung cancer>VAL401.

I think that they will have been transferred to current standards of care, Stumbler. That's why, as things for castrate-resistant +/- metastatic prostate cancer had moved on in the interim (some things working reasonably well), it became harder to recruit new patients for novel monotherapy testing.

That wouldn't be a problem going forward, because I would expect that they may trial 201 in combination with one of these "newer" drugs (as most now do), but it is frustrating to see it sitting there waiting. There's a huge scope of patients who I think would happily try it in addition to their current regimen.

Funnily enough, I did some work on that one, so glad it's being borrowed/licensed and tested. They're finding use of some other of their diabetic portfolio in other conditions, such as heart failure, which is great.

VELA - bit disruptive for me, Iceman, but it could hit rich - and I reckon that's your style. I can picture you in a white limo, with very shiny teeth, going to watch ManU :-). I'm more an old-school tried-and-tested pharma man. Under-promise, over-deliver - I like that.

That's why I also like the look of 201. If I had the money, I'd buy it myself. I cannot see what's wrong, if it's not already being signed for as we speak. Come on Suzy; let's have a Phase 2b/3!

Oh yes - there's some fat Ronaldos too, isn't there. :-)

Anyone in Evgen? I suppose it highlights why, in retrospect, it's not a bad thing that VAL didn't dine out on COVID. It's been a heavy win or lose game for those companies. It's a shame, but they're now in a similar camp to VAL - very low MCap, but with decent potential in other areas (probably under-appreciated). That's not a ramp, because I'm not in there (I did once look at the IP), but many of the shareholders seem a decent bunch, so good luck to them.

No interest in football, but Sterling lives over the field from me. He's a really nice fella to be honest. He likes a Maccy D though, and you wouldn't get Ronaldo doing that.

I can't verbatim give you a list of what expires and when, SamBar, because it appears quite extensive and very nuanced, what with the various combinations of primary tumours, metastases, and other proliferative lesions.

But I have noticed that some of the more recent applications have begun to corner certain regions, such as China; and there appears to be quite a long scope for some of those.

Interestingly, BlackCat Bio's "International Business Manager", is also Chinese, and appears to be based in China. May well be unrelated, but it appears to me that VAL "and friends" are well-aware of the current trends and potential scope of the portfolio (and maybe even sources of funding) within said emerging and, potentially, very large markets.

These are quite common methods to "evergreen" and "thicken" patents; extending the potential revenue stream. VAL seem to be good at this to be honest, so I think that they have a decent set of patent lawyers.

Everyone does it; some even go further and product "hop", where they actually withdraw the original formulation, in favour of a new one. To be honest, VAL201 is probably ripe for reformulation anyway, maybe to extend it's half-life and/or develop an alternative route of administration. Some of the clinical trial involved metastatic patients, as did some of the preclinical data gathered, both of which showed promise.

There's a few potential inflection points coming up over the rest of the year, so I'd hang fire Sam4224. This one has been a slow burner for those of us who held out when Redmile acquired many of the shares. There's an extremely tight free-float, so anything positive should be reflected markedly in the SP. I also anticipate a potential Jazz payment. I'm not aware of any recent payments, but surely they must have initiated the IND enabling studies by now.

In answer to your question, old baldy, no.

Several companies are playing catch up in oncology at this very moment. GSK and BMS in particular have both coughed up huge sums very recently. GSK just paid 600m USD upfront (could be up to 2B in future) for an oncology TA that is still in Phase 1. They're getting a bit desperate, so it's a good time to fish in this therapy area. Prices have exponentially increased on the last 5 years.

Now; these are somewhat novel and "exciting" new ways of treating, so I wouldn't necessarily put 201 into that category ("older school"; even though in its intended area, it may be just as effective), but it does put our ROALMFAO MCap into perspective, especially as we already know it seems to work.

That's the potential beauty of 201. It seems to work by itself. Every other Tom Dick and Harry is shouting "outstanding" at 50% efficacy, when they've chucked it in, in combination with something else. 201 might blow the doors off in a combination, but someone needs to have the balls to take it on, which they should.

With milestone payments, it's a no brainer for me; hence I just cannot see it being parked. If something is clean and works, it moves.

You're too kind. For the record, you're great posters also.

I think 90% of us here are in the same boat. We've bought in; we like Suzy and the team, find them trustworthy, professional, and capable.

The strategy looks sound, and for those who follow closely, a lot of work has been done behind- the-scenes.

We know they'll bring in more early-stage compounds, and they're obviously thorough in their due dil assessments/evaluations (hence the time-lags). They're also efficient. They said they'd evaluate KTH222, and either in-license, or drop, in a relatively-tight timescale, and they delivered on that. They also culled a number of legacy TAs that had been hanging around, as soon as they took control. Big Pharma pay McKinsey to tell them to do that.

The finances are balanced, and the legal/patent consultants seem strong to me.

The ducks are lined up, but we're not there yet, and I think it's fair to say that we're all getting frustrated. Because we need to sell something. Naturally, this gets worse when other peers are pushing out good RNSs and demonstrating tangible progress.

If we partner or sell, then the new strategy is complete and proven. If this happens, I can't see a scenario whereby we'd ever be returning to the doldrums. It would get better and better, and momentum would build and build. Once a company such as VAL has done this, it can become a "feeder", subsequently linking into the same outfit with more compounds. But we do need to shift something. I'm still backing this and genuinely think we will.

I think you are all right. I agree that SAR may have a slight pairing effect, and Rightback called it spot on the last time regarding SP alignment.

I also think that NH is right. It's a shame to rely on others to boost the SP, and sentiment means that we aren't going to substantially shift position until (imo) VAL201 or VAL301 moves on. If someone invests in VAL401, then that should also materially affect the SP, as the HNW individual did at SAR.

New early-stage compounds will interest me, but probably not the market, UNLESS those communications come after news of the above, in which case, I strongly suspect they will.

The sentiment is really interesting here. SAR is in very upbeat territory, and have issued an RNS, which gives a positive in vitro readout. The in vivo results, to me, are quite sparsely communicated, and the results of SARS-CoV-2-related secondary pneumonia have been stated as "inconclusive". I wonder if it didn't show efficacy, but neither did the positive control test article.

In any case, if VAL issued that very same RNS, I wouldn't be surprised, given NH's point, if it didn't cause more than a small ripple at this moment.

Sentiment will flip in a heartbeat, and undervalued companies with low morale, and market inertia, have always attracted me. I feel we're probably just about at that low point now. So it will be a slow dredge, or a springboard. Pay your money, take your chance is very apt I feel.

From my experience, spike buyers put up, but often find it hard to shut up.

Explicitly stated by the CEO of Valirx; Suzy.

You said that "It's based on Suzy saying potential partners aren't going to commit until they have all the data presented to them", when she in fact said the very opposite.