Member Info for rhubarbmk2

Several other buyers in too, yesterday, I think. Not all me. Was sprucing my portfolio. VALs MCap is now so far below my other holdings, and with clinical data, couldn't help myself if I'm honest. They only need to get one decent preclinical shared asset in, to justify that MCap, IMO.

Really selling it there, Touchtheclouds.

Advice: Don't go into sales.

For what it's worth, those accounts to me indicate a tidy ship, and I like a nice tidy ship. Seems to be one AIM company (exceptional) with expenses well under control. All IMO :-)

You've got the job Tommy. lol. VAL201 may be (in theory) better than the headline figure, as that includes the lower dose-range-finding doses; they were never going to do much. Also, in my view, they didn't ever get to dosing it high enough.

However, it was a very limited and non disease-population-targeted study. That's why there's still loads of questions, and that may be reflected in the size of any upfront payment, but maybe that will be countered with attractive milestones. That's certainly what I'd have done. It's quite rare to even get anything near impressive, regarding efficacy, in such an early study.

You also have to gauge what the new suitors might do with the patent. They may do more "ever greening" to extend it (e.g. the newer metastatic allowance seems to now have many more years left). They could also conceivably re-jig the protein afresh (but the patent would still stand as I understand it).

They will also look at the cost of producing it and practicalities of administering it etc, etc.

So there's a lot of consideration to take in for all parties and that will dictate the agreed "value".

I just want Suzy to do a deal with an established name if I'm honest. For me, that will go beyond 201, which after all is something that she has inherited. With new compounds coming in shortly, they'll be under her (and the team's) control, fully. I think things would then move much more quickly and they'd have established (and tested) links.

A very positive sign for me was how quickly and decisively they turned KTH222 around.

Couldn't possibly speculate on the Astellas point :-)

I see Enzalutamide as less of a rival Tommy, and much more as a likely combination drug, with 201 potentially used alongside it, in the treatment of CRMPC.

In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this, or Abiraterone, were used with 201 in a Phase 2b/3, by whoever takes 201. The marketing companies of either of these would make a fantastic fit in my view.

Oh I'm very sorry Novice. I should have known that, given that you were talking with such perception and germane observation. :-) Unlike us "propping the bar up" reprobates. :-)

No pal; write to the the right, vote to the right, and probably dress to the right too :-)

I'll drop RB a line tomorrow, if he's not giving it the "touch of blue", as we drift between 19 and 23p. Again.

Novice raises an interesting point I was pondering too.

Maybe the "bung" is so they will accumulate shares for II's, rather than issuing new shares.

Sure it's legit. Only problem I see, which they will see, is that it'll be like a dead man's grasp at the moment, trying to get anything significant.

Look on the bright side Jinky; at least the warrants won't be exercised - lol.

Obviously we are still waiting to see this, but I am concerned. I am now concerned that many LTHs, including some substantial ones, will simply wait for any deal, and then ship out, en-masse.

The jam-tomorrow legacy of this Company has apparently worn fairly thin, and many are now painfully inpatient to see progress. “Building long-term growth” has a more limited meaning, because, after all, this is the market, and not a NatWest savings account.

This is not the fault of VAL though. It is the nature of trading the AIM. I think that the board have yet to fully grasp the mindset here. Prospects will be driven by positivity, material newsflow, momentum, and, dare I say, a touch of excitement; as much for “stable” II’s, as individual traders looking for a dopamine fix. Also, incidentally, and in my opinion, the share-price has not stabilised. It is a hangover of the 201 clinical results, and is being kept there by a small number of large investors. And if it has stabilised, II’s are not needed to avoid spikes as a primary objective (which we only had substantively during the 201 “anticipation” period). Market volatility will be avoided with a concrete deal.

I still do not think that there’s anything underhand here. I know the individuals in this Company as well as any other shareholder, and I refuse to believe that they’re not trying to play with a straight bat, at least to their mind. Whether Cenkos have taken advantage in any way, I think would become fairly explicit within a relatively-short time-frame, and it’s going to be a very bad look for them if this is the case.

All this being said, with a drive to II involvement; to my mind, this goes beyond the strategy that we currently understand. There’s something new here that requires more serious capital. I’d understood that the strategy (as we currently knew it) was already funded, so there’s more to this than meets the eye.

If some form of serious growth strategy is indeed on the cards, it is now imperative for VAL to move quickly, with material output within the next quarter. Hash-tagging #placing etc on the Cenkos announcement, albeit likely a generic line, was a school-boy start to the relationship between Cenkos and the shareholders, and they need to be better than this.

I’m fairly sure that by the end of December, we’ll know how this is going to go, and I think that this is a fair and reasonable time-frame to see what VAL can now finally do. There’s a lot of pressure on, but there’s also a potential to flourish quickly. I still think that medicines will be progressed, and that the SP will be higher in the coming weeks/months, although the journey is – cough - bumpy. I’m now looking for this to play out like the final scene in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance kid. Yes – they may have been shot down, but the BOD now need to come out firing. And fairly quickly.

All IMO. GLA etc.

Dare I say that Suzy is taking a Thatcher-esque tone in this QandA. She’s not for turning, and is convinced that this is the way forward.

Whilst – and I’m not going to lie – part of me admires that, the answers did not provide the clarity that I was hoping for.

We seem to be at a juncture where the BOD has realised that we do not like dilution – notably in the face of (on paper) essentially a no-news 12 months. But yet they would like to attract Institutional Investors, apparently without diluting the Company/forming a placing (hence the “gifted” warrants). How this will work with individual project investment vehicles, without issuing new shares, I do not know, unless they are offering % returns on any assets sold through those vehicles (which I would support). VAL itself, with these parallel vehicles, would not in theory need to be a cash-rich company.

Yet the vehicles themselves are not progressing to clinical development, so funding would be relatively modest compared to, say, a Phase 2b progression candidate.

I genuinely do not see this as a means to progress VAL401 by issuing VAL shares to Cenkos, as I’ve read.

It looks like the BOD were impatient to get on with the new strategy, and didn’t want to wait for the conclusion of any legacy compound deals. It could be that simple. I do not think they would have envisaged this level of revolt. But, to be fair to shareholders, we have always understood from podcasts since last December that there were a number of interested parties, and so have concluded in our own minds that 201 was a fair dead-cert for near-term partnering. So a potential last-minute swing in for a slice of cake was always going to be met with derision. And to still be paying Cenkos a retainer, with no (known) hurdles, plus such a large percentage, still has me – not going to lie again – shaking my head.

My personal view was always to see what they could do with 201 before committing as a (very) LTH, because, after all, the current BOD have not yet accomplished a sell-on, and I think it’s imperative to see this, especially if they are basing their entire operation around undertaking this very exercise. In 201, they have a promising clinical-phase drug, which has more data than will ever be available for any future compounds. Until this point, I saw entry of new compounds to be treated with a slight “meh”, by the market. However, with this, you’d have both income and a whole-sale restoration of trust in the Company, so we’d have a spring-board effect going forward.

Moving on; although no individual can speak for all, I do think it is fair to say that to there is a general opinion of the following:

A. Medicines will be advanced at VAL over the next few months.

B. This will be reflected in the MCap (confidence in A+B = no significant downward SP movement last week).

C. Many holders are skeptical of the precise contribution that Cenkos will make to the above (hence a view by some that any deal should've been concluded later; e.g. at commencement of the new strategy, proper; post legacy compound advancement).

D. Some contributors, like me, await representation, but are also wary of credit-taking, and potential resulting malaise, at Cenkos, should the aforementioned occur.

I think (my opinion) that many of us are staying put, but I also think it fine to air grievances and concerns when they are well-founded and balanced, as most posters here have done.

We are also lucky that these issues are listened to in this Company. Because, in my experience in AIM, this would otherwise all be a chorus to deaf ears.

To be fair, Starbright, your post is fairly characteristic of someone trying to be very clever, primarily via a well-versed character assassination (at individuals, whom, I may add, happen to be very well-respected and long-term contributors), followed by a concise counter-appraisal of the distinct advantages of said deal.

Only you forgot the second part.

I've coined a term "flaccid penetrator" for these types of post.

Jinky; they can do both, based on the passing of two resolutions at the AGM; ie raise from current shareholders, or institutions (without permission), currently. I foresee no exchange of shares for cash for the forseeable, but as with most companies, there is an option.

It's a fair point. You can polish a preclinical turd and sell it for a few mil these days.

Precisely PM2022; bang on.

The good news is that Cenkos will know the current ballpark negotiation openers for IP.

So their first challenge is to raise 20M to advance 401 (what the hell happened to BlackCat). From an imagined sales pitch, I expect that to be a breeze.

Secondly; they'll want 30-50MUSD upfront for 201, with a 350-500MUSD milestone series to commercialisation, followed by a tiered 6-10% royalty. Let's not be too greedy; hopefully it was in their powerpoint somewhere.

The preclinical investment vehicles should be comparably cheaper, and so a quick whip around should settle those in no time; I hope in exchange for investment %, rather than more cheap shares.

Lastly, they can sit with us for a bit - sweating - as we have for the last two years (and in many cases, much longer).

Even making a dent into the above, and I will whole-heartedly not be disparaging of their seemingly record-breaking deal.

I'm not sure how many records VAL has broken, but I'm fairly certain at this moment in time that it will be the first AIM biotech outfit to partner a Phase 2 clinical drug, with an existing Market Cap of 3 buttons, a twix, and a packet of crisps.

It's like the polar opposite of all the peers. There's literally no air in the balloon.

It's a forgotten stock that's going to be found under the settee at 7am one Autumn morning.

LMFAO over here.

"Benjamin! Your scaffolding lads are waiting - switch off your L2 and come off that forum immediately, or put another pound in the meter!"

The problem we have is that 80p in Royston Vasey will buy you the equivalent of £2.36 in civilised society. So we need to raise his expectations.

But we can work on that.

And; if you were a carpenter, and rightback were a lady*; having done the sums for a Phase 2b-ready and commercially-transferred candidate; your 2.36 doesn't actually sound so outlandish, old son. Been thinking on it.

*statement/assumption has no relevance to the calculation.