Member Info for RG100

If the deal goes through it looks a good one for Genel. It gives them a clear option over next 2-3 years to push KRG harder, see where it goes with the pipeline/exports situation, and how Oman and Somaliland develop with a view to a complete KRG exit in a couple of years time. Not sure how market will value them for now as they are currently valued at cash and that cash will move into a higher return but higher risk situation in Egypt. Still it's probably better than doing nothing.

It would probably have moved higher if the Stag field 2k bpd wasn't out of production due to storm damage with no update on a resolution date, and CWLH 3.5k per day out for (planned) maintenance. Timing could not have been worse for both of these at current oil price! Can't remember deal on Akatara production and if we see much of the upside and with hedges in place on a large % of Montana and other production we are not enjoying as much upside as we should hence the share price not going as far as it should in these circumstances.

The RNS was a disappointing first read but on 2nd read not as bad. Cash is key to JSE prospects and the Vietnam development. The drop in free cash flow 25-27 looks very bad but has largely happened in 25 (due to Skua cost overrun) so the majority of the free cash drops in 26 and 27. With the potential for Vietnam FID in the next 12 months or so and refinancing of RBL the company may end up being able to go it alone on Vietnam (conversion of 2c to 2p giving larger RBL?) making this a major growth catalyst and taking production to 30k bopd. Bringing in a partner would help de-risk . I am hoping that management are keeping open their options as farm-outs can take a long time. July 26 first half trading statement will be eagerly awaited to see if they can start delivering on cash.

In other news Roxi seems closer to throwing in the towel which must be a buying signal!

Why would HBR sell now, and get very little for the UK operations when they can pedal slow for the next few years in the UK and then faster when the new regime comes along. 4 years is not long in the life of this basin.

Looked a steal at £1 earlier today, big overreaction, especially as Gov never signalled an early end to the EPL. There was no way they could be seen to tax folk more and reduce the EPL. That said and done, a more stable regime from 2030 onwards for Buchan and prospect of a Reform or right wing coalition beyond 2029 makes this a good prospect of happening, and thus cheap at todays closing price.

Bit slow to come back on this one @Bubba but buyback shares are still as far as I know 'in issue' whilst held by the company in Treasury so 30% would not be triggered by a buyback. Also AIM rules don't require a mandatory offer I think at 30%, full listed shares do.

It's frustrating that JSE is so unloved at present with no sentiment or momentum behind it. It's a challenge for the JSE Board to resolve. Look at RKH with no oil being produced or likely until 2029 and valued at 3 to 4 times JSE. There is no point in JSE Board keeping saying that the company is undervalued, they need to move quickly to buybacks. If they are forecasting $250mn net cashflow over next 3 years then why not put in place $20mn buyback asap or indicate they are moving this direction. Looking at last weeks numbers net debt should be zero around at turn of the year. Perhaps they have signed something with the banks around timing of buybacks or shareholder distributions but at a valuation of £115m this looks like a really great place for cash - they could buy back 16% of the company at todays price with a £20m buyback.

I'm a huge fan of Jadestone, and disappointed as all others are with the share price performance which has unfortunately worsened since new management team took over (not helped by international events beyond their control) but still does not look good. I haven't looked at any detailed research but I think the company is caught in a bit of a bind, having borrowed to finance Akatara, and cover for the Montara disaster - the balance sheet is weak. It is too weak to make significant progress on Vietnam which holds most of the 2C to 2P opportunity. Meantime the oil price is falling, and Montana and Stag have very high production costs, and future abandonment liabilities. The combination of all these factors depresses the share price, hence today's announced operational review as in essence they need to show they can make a decent profit at lower oil prices. This will recover when they can show increasing free cashflow and profitability and balance sheet able to support returns to shareholders and enough cash to invest in Vietnam. This could take some time.

Someone once said to me 'CGT is a nice problem to have'! Congratulate yourself on having bought them in the first place, sell a few and buy a treat.

Good news already!! Malcy has ditched Jadestone from his 2025 Bucket list......... when he recommends a stock they dive, and when he dumps them they motor. Stars aligning!

Am not expecting the 24 figures to look that great in the year end statement but hoping for a v positive fcf statement, as well as net debt for 25

From the RNS I detect that PB wanted to carry on doing deals like the aborted Woodside deal and had a vision of a bigger beast than this management team which would appear to want to focus on greater stability, shareholder returns and get the banks of JSE's back. Will probably make for a less exciting/ unpredictable ride but with lower potential risk/reward. Time will tell how this impacts the SP.

Two investments by CEO in the 20's certainly makes a statement.... would be good to see other Directors supporting but this is very positive. Also I liked the trading statement detail on production at 24k per day on good Akatara days --- which suggests to me that they think this sort of level of production could become permanent , hopefully the cash position starts to turnaround quickly allowing restoration of dividend/buybacks maybe late next year.

As an lth at a higher average than today, I had hoped that today would see robust current production and the end of last years issues but they didn't quite manage it unfortunately. Also, I couldn't see any free cash forecast update in any presentation but maybe that was on the webcast ? The company looks undervalued but has poor trust levels which is maybe why there is no cash flow forecast as they are uncertain on Akatara. It still feels a long way from the heady days of dividends and buy backs, and the balance sheet needs restoring whilst oil prices are firm. They need to execute really well at Akatara and deliver some cashflow upside to get the share price premium back.

I'm not sure if this deal would involve significant dilution. The HBR is at around 5x MCAP hence the significant debt and equity engineering and dilution. Although this deal looks like a doubling or a little more than that of BOPD, I think it will be a lot easier for Jadestone to pay for. Firstly they will back date revenues from the completion date with these going to Woodside, and they will significantly expand the RBL. As Akatara is likely on stream by then cash gen will have improved and the RBL will also increase thanks to Akatara and CWLH barrels. They seem to be fairly late life barrels with production running to early 2030's, and there was comment elsewhere online that there had been a Woodside write down on the assets due to lower than expected returns on additional drilling. So maybe a less expensive purchase than suggested by headline barrels.

The point is Rookie that the price today is reflecting the risk of the transaction not happening at all/getting cancelled, which has to be a possibility and then we are back to the £2.20-2.40 range. As the deal firms up later in the year the price will move closer to £3.60 or could move to a small premium once FTSE 100 status is in sight

One reason for depressed share price may be that if you hold rkh in your ISA the warrants sit outside it so you have to buy the warrants then sell the shares, transfer the cash to your ISA, and then if you want rkh shares buy them from your ISA. Personally I just bought the warrants a few weeks back, sold the shares and took the profit and popped the cash back into my ISA as wasn't worth paying another round of dealing costs rebuying the shares. All ISA holders are faced with this, and at least I had the warm afterglow that I was helping fund the company, even if I was depressing the share price (temporarily)

I think the SP will recover in January once this is out of the way and folk can see that there is the potential for good news flow next year. Nice to see JOG get their deal over the line... fingers crossed for RKH in 24.

One key 2024 date is what happens with Shenandoah. Don't see Navitas committing to FID on Sea Lion until the oil and gas are flowing from Shenandoah and think first oil there is tabled as late 24 but that may be subject to the usual start ups delays

Agree.... market has visibility of revenue, cash and prospect of dividend, and hopefully with luck a sustained rally from here... eg see Centrica steady rise once sentiment changes

Agree this is a great buying opportunity. Haven't done the numbers but the RBL and cash raise plus Tyrus cash were designed to cover just such an issue as modelling the impact of a further production outage at Montara was I imagine a condition of the RBL. It's the uncertainty and appearance that management are not on top of things that has caused the loss in confidence. I hope the CEO stays, and when production hits 25-30k per day in late 24 this bump in the road will look pretty small. Good opportunity to make 5x as company could be worth $800-$1bn by 2025

Does anyone understand why Neptune has been sold for $4.9bn dollars, has $1.5bn net debt, production of 135000 per day (granted with a 75% gas to oil mix), and HBR has 200000 bpd, closing in on zero net debt and a current valuation of c $2.3bn. They do have 40% production in Norway but its not like the tax is less there than UK. Its hard to make sense of.