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Previously post bad news the sp seems to just drift back up provided the oil price is strong. The company fundamentals remain very strong but the risk element has risen considerably. As others have said on any good news either in discussions with KRG or drill bit at Sarta and QD the price will bounce sharply which is what I'm staying in for for now.
Does anyone understand if the proposed 'special dividend' is a genuine cash per share held with no associated reduction in share capital or a repeat of the Senegal 'distribution' which by the time the share reduction had taken place did not feel special at all? It makes quite a difference to the investment case right now.
What an ignorant post. The market reaction is saying these are about bang on what was flagged and expected. Kier has a lot of rebuilding trust to do and the CEO is doing a proper job of fixing the balance sheet which is done and restoring trust which is the only way to fix the share price. The business appears to have the ability to drive an EPS of up to 50p per share (currently 25p) so 10-15p a share dividend in a couple of years time if targets are hit which suggests a share price in due course north of £2-2.50 if you can wait a few years - suspect it will just creep up gently from here with the occasional setback for sentiment. The unknown is whether they can grow the business without chasing poor deals.
can't read too much in to one months production, and AGM statement confirmed Tawke robust production forcecast for 21. Possibility of extra Sarta production at calendar year end means that revenues will be robust, and if you are happy to wait 50 months Genel will have all their money back from KRG!
I hope folks on this bb will lobby Kenmare to kick McT out of there too. He should not be serving on any Board after this charade.
It will be say a lot about the company as to what is revealed tomorrow. Are they chucking off as much cash as some people think. If so could they be bold and go with 1.5p dividend, thus shouting that they are undervalued.
My only fear is that production has been poor given issues BP have at Clair, and declines elsewhere
For a deal that was signed in November 2019 with a close date of H2 20 this is moving very slowly and would have been useful if the real reasons for the delay had been announced.... the fact that a new date has not been set suggests that they may walk away (problem is that I suspect its a really great deal and they don't want to)
Not 100% sure boyobach about your strategy as think the market has massively overreacted. KRG have simply said that they will pay back more slowly. I suspect that at the time the override was agreed Genel and others showed them pretty pictures of an oil price between $55-60. KRG are simply saying you pulled the wool over our eyes as its consistently $65-70 now and we are going to pay back more slowly as our impoverished people and empty treasury coffers need the money more than Genel needs the cash stacking up in its bank account . Genel are still in a great place and these shares will recover very quickly in a few weeks when this has calmed down.
On the Malcy subject he should disclose if he is getting money from companies to write positively about them. Some of the stuff he publishes or re-publishes would suggest he is in the pay of others. He should get back to writing a blog where he assesses and criticises or supports announcements and then would be more credible... totally agree with your comment on him.
I think the market is already ahead of you. By flagging the equity raise for the last 12 months the market is already pricing it in and you don't have to be great at maths to figure out what it will be, probably a 3 for 2 in the 60-70p range. If there was no raise needed this would be trading on a much higher valuation. The raise should fix the balance sheet concerns and the rights will eventually look good value as the business trades better over time, though still quite a long haul for lt.'s but worthwhile if tucking away for a few years
Stevo12's 10.23 post is the nearest to sense on this board for some time. The overhang impact has been a big surprise and the retrace from 33p to 18p unwelcome but a fabulous opportunity for LTH's to average down.
Boring is just what we want and HBR is going to be a grown up company that does not give a running commentary on speculation. These guys believe in optimising profit and thus per the launch presentation want to be 'investment grade' as this will see a company with low cost debt to fund the growth opportunities. Once the market sees proof that this is a low cost, high profits, investment grade offshore play the SP will move accordingly - so boring is good.
If the new Harbour web site is anything to go by the Falklands is a pretty low priority, given how little info there is on it, in fact Mexico seems to get a better page. That said operational data on the new site is pretty limited generally with no production data, and v little on plans. I feel these guys will play cards very close to their chest. From memory the FI break even PMO had reached was $40 per barrel. Harbour has a break even of $30-35 so you would expect FI would only happen if they can get to a lower break even which probably means a renegotiation with contractors, FI and UK gov.
Bladesman, You might be best to buy more than one as tomorrow could be the last chance to buy at this kind of level. The retrace from 33p to 23.8p doesn't make a lot of sense on fundamentals. All the producing oil co's have retraced but few as far as PMO in the last 3 weeks.
The big question for me is whether Harbour can maintain production at or above 200k and convince the market that they have a strategy to do this - they have no shortage of North Sea options to replace the ageing stuff but they will be running hard into a decommissioning headwind and falling North Sea production - thank goodness for the PMO tax losses, and Tolmount coming on stream.
My feel is that they will progress Zama until they see what else there is in PMO's Mexico stable, and will either take a much bigger position in the Far East or really go for the Falklands but probably not both.
the biggest share price rises seem to be going to those with production and big debt eg ENQ, TLW but anyone with production seems to be rising so its strange this has remained pegged back - it suggests something is going on that the professional people know about or that the output for year was poorly received by investors, which is strange given the excellent H2 exit production numbers. Best to sit tight.
RNS Translator your post sums it up perfectly. Also the the rather stroppy poorly written RNS was written thus because the new management are irritated that they are not allowed to do anything or at least they are trying to communicate that they are doing their best. Reality is their hands are tied until the bondholders are confident they are getting their money back.
The HUR Board needed to tell people in the RNS that the sidetrack isn't going to happen this year. Thats the message really - no more, and that underlying it the bondholders are not supportive at the moment - oil price rise is still too recent for them to be supportive, so BOD can do no more than sit and wait, and work out if complexity from the side track can be removed or more options become available if the POO is sustained. They are correct to say that things are outside their control, POO, water cut, bondholders etc but right now the higher POO is giving them some confidence to sit it out. Keep watching the POO and offloads.
No great surprise there, and you can't buy PMO1 anymore so its the shares only from here on, which will I'm guessing inch up a little from here, though largely following POO until the real action begins at the end of March, and we really get to know what the market thinks HE is worth.