Member Info for RG100

Could be a bumpy few weeks for the shares... as well highlighted by Surfit that production is running below expectation, and Q11-B looks flaky. The other odd thing is forecast production post acquisition - quoting 13.8k boe/d at 31 Dec pro forma. Would have been helpful to have had a 2022 forecast.
Long term still looks pretty good.

Does anyone understand the Egypt revenues?
Release states:
"Oil and gas revenue in Egypt from acquisition completion on 23 September to 31 December was US$56m, from net entitlement production of 1.5 mmboe of which ~38% was liquids. Oil sales averaged US$77.5/boe and gas sales averaged US$2.9/mcf. "
Assuming production is approx 35,000 boe per day (low end), then in 100 days between two above dates entitlement production should be approx 3.5 mmboe, or was the deal structured so they would not see all the revenue in 2021?
It would have been nice to see a revenue forecast for 2022 or at least a free cash forecast at an assumed oil price.
Does anyone understand these Egypt figures better please.

They seem to have accelerated the pace of the buyback. Latest yesterday 180,000 odd shares. 2 or 3 times as many as earlier in the month. Maybe that indicates that the Indian Gov money is coming soon.

Decks are being cleared to buy assets with or close to production, expect deals during 22

The problem today is that many thought they might be debt free by 2024 and if they had got Tolmount under way in Q4 2021 that might have been the case. Too many things have just shifted a little to the right including having to rely on Tolmount to make 2022 production when its still not live (the reserves adjustment is a little painful too). All weigh on the overall good news that they are making a lot of money, will pay a dividend, and have a clear strategy around near field development and becoming big in another area --- S East Asia for sure--
The SP will continue to do better as they become more investable for institutional cash. The exit from Sea Lion is part of that plan.

Tolmount and Buzzard great as short term catalysts. It will be interesting to see what they say about the strategy at capital markets day. Previously they had said they want to be a scale player in 2 regions i.e. one other than North Sea. My guess is they favour the Far East and growth markets that want the product. Think they will sell Zama and exit Mexico post FID (they have already existed licences at Burgos), and you will see further investment and acquisitions only in N Sea and Far East around Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Andamans. No idea who they could buy out there to get some more scale.

SP looks great value at this level given precious little bad news. Highly cash generating at $80

Easy to forget that Italy are co hosts with UK of COP26, so no chance of any OM adjudication whilst Glasgow going on

Great post. DEC is exceeding its obligations and has long term agreements on retirement and plugging of wells, and are getting more efficient at it.
Bloomberg would be best to head to Iraq or other parts of the Middle East and focus on gas flaring if they want to help save the planet.

I know its easy to say so but you shouldn't be investing if you don't know what a company is doing, and I am talking about institutional and other investors. The DEC model has always been clear that they take wells that inefficient players no longer want and extract more from them than others would have done. They are doing mankind a service and rewarding shareholders in running these wells for longer than others would have done. The report seems to focus unfairly on wells that they purchased more recently and of course its damaging to the share price but the sell off today is massively overdone. This business has a good model and knows how to make money, you won't get a better opportunity to safely make a dime than buying at this level with a 11% dividend and a growing business.

This FT post is really interesting, particularly for those invested in Jadestone as an LTH. I hold these so confess an interest but do recommend LT investors take a look at Jadestone if looking for a growth story exposed to better oil prices and strong markets with good management.

This rise still seems like something is happening behind the scenes perhaps on the drilling front or discussions with KRG that someone knows something about, though you could easily explain it as a delayed partial catch up with OP events.
Bet you wish you hadn't sold out! Mind you they will probably release a bad RNS and you'll be laughing.

Their results presentation posted today on HBR web site talks about electrification.... so maybe.

Previously post bad news the sp seems to just drift back up provided the oil price is strong. The company fundamentals remain very strong but the risk element has risen considerably. As others have said on any good news either in discussions with KRG or drill bit at Sarta and QD the price will bounce sharply which is what I'm staying in for for now.

Fair point. Last time we got both, consolidation and share price weakness (which may just have been unfortunate).

Does anyone understand if the proposed 'special dividend' is a genuine cash per share held with no associated reduction in share capital or a repeat of the Senegal 'distribution' which by the time the share reduction had taken place did not feel special at all? It makes quite a difference to the investment case right now.

What an ignorant post. The market reaction is saying these are about bang on what was flagged and expected. Kier has a lot of rebuilding trust to do and the CEO is doing a proper job of fixing the balance sheet which is done and restoring trust which is the only way to fix the share price. The business appears to have the ability to drive an EPS of up to 50p per share (currently 25p) so 10-15p a share dividend in a couple of years time if targets are hit which suggests a share price in due course north of £2-2.50 if you can wait a few years - suspect it will just creep up gently from here with the occasional setback for sentiment. The unknown is whether they can grow the business without chasing poor deals.

can't read too much in to one months production, and AGM statement confirmed Tawke robust production forcecast for 21. Possibility of extra Sarta production at calendar year end means that revenues will be robust, and if you are happy to wait 50 months Genel will have all their money back from KRG!

I hope folks on this bb will lobby Kenmare to kick McT out of there too. He should not be serving on any Board after this charade.

Looks like the market has decided Kier is past the worst and now more investable - with associated re-rate