Member Info for RG100

For sure this will close at 20p as MM's too dumb to do the maths on anything more complex!

It will be say a lot about the company as to what is revealed tomorrow. Are they chucking off as much cash as some people think. If so could they be bold and go with 1.5p dividend, thus shouting that they are undervalued.
My only fear is that production has been poor given issues BP have at Clair, and declines elsewhere

For a deal that was signed in November 2019 with a close date of H2 20 this is moving very slowly and would have been useful if the real reasons for the delay had been announced.... the fact that a new date has not been set suggests that they may walk away (problem is that I suspect its a really great deal and they don't want to)

Not 100% sure boyobach about your strategy as think the market has massively overreacted. KRG have simply said that they will pay back more slowly. I suspect that at the time the override was agreed Genel and others showed them pretty pictures of an oil price between $55-60. KRG are simply saying you pulled the wool over our eyes as its consistently $65-70 now and we are going to pay back more slowly as our impoverished people and empty treasury coffers need the money more than Genel needs the cash stacking up in its bank account . Genel are still in a great place and these shares will recover very quickly in a few weeks when this has calmed down.
On the Malcy subject he should disclose if he is getting money from companies to write positively about them. Some of the stuff he publishes or re-publishes would suggest he is in the pay of others. He should get back to writing a blog where he assesses and criticises or supports announcements and then would be more credible... totally agree with your comment on him.

I think the market is already ahead of you. By flagging the equity raise for the last 12 months the market is already pricing it in and you don't have to be great at maths to figure out what it will be, probably a 3 for 2 in the 60-70p range. If there was no raise needed this would be trading on a much higher valuation. The raise should fix the balance sheet concerns and the rights will eventually look good value as the business trades better over time, though still quite a long haul for lt.'s but worthwhile if tucking away for a few years

Stevo12's 10.23 post is the nearest to sense on this board for some time. The overhang impact has been a big surprise and the retrace from 33p to 18p unwelcome but a fabulous opportunity for LTH's to average down.
Boring is just what we want and HBR is going to be a grown up company that does not give a running commentary on speculation. These guys believe in optimising profit and thus per the launch presentation want to be 'investment grade' as this will see a company with low cost debt to fund the growth opportunities. Once the market sees proof that this is a low cost, high profits, investment grade offshore play the SP will move accordingly - so boring is good.

If the new Harbour web site is anything to go by the Falklands is a pretty low priority, given how little info there is on it, in fact Mexico seems to get a better page. That said operational data on the new site is pretty limited generally with no production data, and v little on plans. I feel these guys will play cards very close to their chest. From memory the FI break even PMO had reached was $40 per barrel. Harbour has a break even of $30-35 so you would expect FI would only happen if they can get to a lower break even which probably means a renegotiation with contractors, FI and UK gov.

Bladesman, You might be best to buy more than one as tomorrow could be the last chance to buy at this kind of level. The retrace from 33p to 23.8p doesn't make a lot of sense on fundamentals. All the producing oil co's have retraced but few as far as PMO in the last 3 weeks.
The big question for me is whether Harbour can maintain production at or above 200k and convince the market that they have a strategy to do this - they have no shortage of North Sea options to replace the ageing stuff but they will be running hard into a decommissioning headwind and falling North Sea production - thank goodness for the PMO tax losses, and Tolmount coming on stream.
My feel is that they will progress Zama until they see what else there is in PMO's Mexico stable, and will either take a much bigger position in the Far East or really go for the Falklands but probably not both.

the biggest share price rises seem to be going to those with production and big debt eg ENQ, TLW but anyone with production seems to be rising so its strange this has remained pegged back - it suggests something is going on that the professional people know about or that the output for year was poorly received by investors, which is strange given the excellent H2 exit production numbers. Best to sit tight.

RNS Translator your post sums it up perfectly. Also the the rather stroppy poorly written RNS was written thus because the new management are irritated that they are not allowed to do anything or at least they are trying to communicate that they are doing their best. Reality is their hands are tied until the bondholders are confident they are getting their money back.

The HUR Board needed to tell people in the RNS that the sidetrack isn't going to happen this year. Thats the message really - no more, and that underlying it the bondholders are not supportive at the moment - oil price rise is still too recent for them to be supportive, so BOD can do no more than sit and wait, and work out if complexity from the side track can be removed or more options become available if the POO is sustained. They are correct to say that things are outside their control, POO, water cut, bondholders etc but right now the higher POO is giving them some confidence to sit it out. Keep watching the POO and offloads.

No great surprise there, and you can't buy PMO1 anymore so its the shares only from here on, which will I'm guessing inch up a little from here, though largely following POO until the real action begins at the end of March, and we really get to know what the market thinks HE is worth.

Terrific investment opportunity this one for medium term growth in profits, revenue and share price. The re-organisation of the entity should give much more visibility to UK and European investors and will also drive share price as institutional backers increase. Class act.

This is a buy to average down on weakness for those who have been in longer or hold for those who entered lower. No point in selling unless you are trading oil and political sentiment. This is being held in a narrow zone now until the risk around completion goes and there is greater clarity on captain cooks's plans. Those who believe it will move towards 30p are probably right and thus it should outperform most oil stocks over the period to April.

I found the RNS only mildly encouraging. Production is falling and there is nothing coming on stream to replace it. It must be a nice life sat watching PMO and Enq produce oil for you and the lawyers chase money off the Indian government. But right now there are distressed oil co's with too much debt to maximise the assets they have and this must be an opportunity for Cairn to make some acquisitions with strong IRR's. At least the RNS does mention they might consider emerging from their hibernation to do this, let's hope they haven't missed the boat.

Agree with Pokerchips that this is in the hands of the shorters whilst everyone is running scared. You only have to say SFO and down goes any company's share price but really its yesterdays news, and even though Petrofac has had an awful 2020, and will produce poor 21 numbers, the point is it has capacity to deliver projects that can't be simply rustled up, and the SP will return to being a reflection of the longer term soon. Note DNO/ Genel announcement on 8 new wells at Tawke - as the oil price recovers companies will dust off the delayed and deferred projects that just keep them where they are production wise let alone grow. The Petrofac SP recovery which had begun has simply been put off for a little while. Those who don't mind holding for a few months will look back and see. slow as the most sensational buying opportunity.

Cash and equity. ENQ valued at £250m - could be bought with cash, see Sussex engineer comment, and Tullow valued at £460m a bit more sizeable but with Cairn Market cap at £1.2bn it could be paid with cash and equity, combined with debt refinancing, remember Cairn has no debt and the prospect of a large cash payout further down the line

The market was applying some value in the claim before the award announcement and some more after the announcement hence the SP rise. The risk element is still there as to whether India pays up or not. I would guess that about one third the value of the award is in the share price as people are still sceptical as to whether they pay so there is still some upside here. I'd prefer to see cairn management being a bit more active, make a bid for Enquest or Tullow, where a combined business would have sound finances, a bit more production and the firepower to develop the opportunities that aren't being acted on at ENQ or TLW due to balance sheet constraints

PMO is gradually heading towards a duller Aker BP life as Harbour Energy (just check how it tracks the oil price), so soon the bumpy PMO ride will be over but not quite yet. From its 18-22p recent trading range its likely to bump up after the vote, my guess is 21-26p trading range and then if the road shows go well prior to relisting as Harbour then dependent on oil price probably 25-32p, after that there will still be a little fun left as it becomes clear what the forward strategy is and whether Harbour buy up more of those 'rusty assets' or whether they grow the PMO international assets. So maybe 40p possible this year or early next with a fair wind but after that if you want fun and tears buy some different shares. UJO, ECO, ENQ

I think the purpose of the special dividend with share consolidation is to make Cairn a better long term proposition to hold by increasing Cairn's EPS. In theory the share price should stay neutral when the shares consolidate, but in time may benefit disproportionately from the EPS boost. There may also be tax advantages for Cairn this way but would need a tax expert to explain these and if they exist. For shareholders there will be a tax liability but I wonder if the share consolidation makes the special dividend effectively a return of capital and thus covered in smaller shareholders CGT allowance rather than income. If you have a lot of shares then its probably worth getting advice on this given the low threshold in UK for tax on dividend income, especially for higher earners.