Member Info for revolutionary

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow!

Harry sure knows how to keep us thinking we would be stupid to leave with what may come next without anything really happening.

No regular half year update as yet.

Was beginning to wonder what would happen if we had a few sales here as there doesn’t appear to be any appetite.

Last time I sold a few to fund a uk house purchase, the share tanked which tanked the Zambian stock market. If I sold a few this July would that again tank the sp, tank the ZSE , and tank the government? It really surprised me last time how little could influence a small market.

So the business is now React & Maintain? Diluted focus but clear cross selling opportunities.

Also is this an indication of future trajectory and building the business into the traditional 4 main types of maintenance:-
REACT = Corrective Maintenance also traditionally/abusively called REACTive maintenance
FIDELIS = Preventive Maintenance also traditionally the basis for Reliability programs (Reliable translates into Latin as FIDELIS)
????? = Risk Based Maintenance - perfect use for AI to hunt through piles of data to spot opportunities for risk reduction
????? = Condition Based Maintenance - monitor for early indications of future failure and then REACT

The last two are the sexy technology ones that could shift the business into tech share price territory. AI would be great for spotting risks, and IOT for condition based sensing. Two very nice buzz acronyms!

This share annoys me most! Would love to run a mile from all the folks trying to talk it up/talk it down. Makes me very cautious in how to handle it. Have not been impressed by the occasional 'family' snap on location. Would definitely be more comfortable if I could actually see someone building a mine with serious money. I've been in way longer than the 5 year plus normal investment horizon and have been through many of the false dawns & rinse repeats. Only made some cash when I backed my hunch that the last 'finance approved' was another false dawn, sold and bought back in lower. Will definitely be looking carefully through how the words are crafted this time to see if another opportunity arises. However the reason I bought in originally is still there - Harry has significant skin in this game and he pulled off (sort of) the regen of the Rio Tinto mine.

No trades following g a 10% dip. Quiet back waters again.

Expect this will liven up towards the end off March as we might expect a trading update. Not aware of any new downsides other than Covid although not sure that would have been as significant in Zambia. Dollar debt should have improved through farm sale. Hoping for solid results across the board.

After that, batten down the hatches as all the fun of the elections are coming next!

I've occasionally seen Harry criticised on here for his role in the rejuvenation of the Rio Tinto mine. Thought I would finally check the details for myself. It seems Harry did all the hard slog there and handed over to others to take it into operations where it seems to be doing OK. That was also when Harry started to focus on the opportunity for Kefi. He has been pushing this for many years so definitely not a fly-by-night. I would expect Harry to do a similar handover act as soon as we have the finance and contractors to start to build Tulu Kapi. He can then focus on any shenanigans with the Saudis and get that going. Definitely more stamina than myself!

Stated as 5th June 2021. My speculation is that the current government will want to have the Kefi project under way as an example of development before the electioneering starts.

So if finance has not happened by mid-April (say) then I think we are again chasing our tails. Saudi results may save our bacon before then. If nothing happens on either front then the sp is likely to plummet.

There is much to suggest this is significantly undervalued.

I haven’t checked recently but I bought in when I realised the company could buy itself with just the amount of cash coining in over the tills each month

A sale of one of the farms could buy the company....

Lack of profits but no major losses with growth suggests careful management developing the company

Plenty of potential disasters eg foot/mouth weather locusts load-shedding but diversified so good areas make up for bad ones

The skeleton I missed was the chicken farm terms that were highlighted when it looked like we would be gobbled up by South Africa but CDC came in saving the bacon ( and beef and chicken) but then the preference shares came in

A few mins extra thought and am doubling down on my theory of ex-director putting shares in UK pension. Looks about right for current year plus 3 year carry-forward. So help drift the sp down over a few months with gentle selling, then buy/sell them into uk pension pot set up when planning retirement a few years ago.

Now let the shares roar upwards protected from the taxman.

Ever hopeful!

Big transactions for Zam.

Not indicated as buy/sell so let’s speculate!

Option:-
1. Someone looked at the business and saw potential and just bought on open market. I think the market makers don’t carry that much stock in this backwater with even a few grand worth forcing the sp out of its band.
2. Seller that has been keeping this low, offloads last chunk to a newbie. Could that be one of the recently retired directors.....properly retiring? No RNS as yet would suggest it’s not one of the bigger institutions
3. Less than 1% so could be one or more institutions kicking this about in their band to get this share livened up - livening up should help reset this higher?
4. Retired director putting a maxed out chunk into pension - that’s my best guess as looks like a controlled buy/sell

There is definitely more wealth to the south (Botswana, Namibia, RSA) but also more competition. More dangerous to the North? Hadn't thought about further East and Mozambique....Useful to get ideas chipped in as we are probably all biassed towards our own experience.

For myself, a generation ago it was 'don't go to RSA' it's all 'riot and revolution' but reality was a great first world country that was dumping apartheid.
In RSA I was told 'don't go to Zimbabwe' it's all 'riot and revolution' but reality was a first world country with first signs of confetti money on horizon
They'll shoot you in Zambia! Missed out
Mazambecans were happy to run through the Kruger park dodging lions rather than stay - again I missed out!

Much easier to look like you are building a billion+ dollar plant if you have all the drawings for one recycled from the one already built in Korea

The validation is said to be happening at Daresbury. However I doubt whether that has all the approvals as a clinical site. What happens if a significant blood vessel gets ruptured (or other serious complication) when treating that first patient. There would need to be some sort of plan in place that doesn't just involve sticking the patient in a taxi and sending to Warrington General.

Could it be Pebble Mill, as they say it will be supported by Birmingham NHS Trust? But that would require installation of the machine and we haven't heard any chat about building works etc

Harley Street perhaps as they at least have a building that has been purpose built to take the machine. But there is no chat about delivery of equipment there, let alone commissioning. I doubt that can happen in next 6 months.

Back to Daresbury then and excess clinical staff on site with possibly an ambulance all fired up with police escort arranged to head south to Birmingham if the worst happens. Or maybe they just take out a small mole on the skin on an extremity....Nothing too adventurous to get over the finish line. All adjusted for a COVID clinical world that we are still likely to be in.

With the retirement of Grogan and Irwin, we have definitely moved on from the sentimental family business. My re-analysis of company

Strengths:-
We have a strong brand closely linked to national pride (football, Zam* branding)
We are vertically integrated but happy to take product at any stage from others at commodity prices (e.g. Rabb and Grogan supplying cows) and sell through others (1 day chicks, feed, Shoprite). But always with the option for in-house to ensure security of supply and sales.

Looks like an excellent strategy that should be printing money so why no proper profits?

Weaknesses:-
Still mainly tied to the success of a poorly performing nation.
National branding not helpful developing business elsewhere in West Africa

Opportunities:-
Building the same African style supply chain elsewhere e.g. Nigeria
Zimbabwe on the doorstep that could do with regenerating its historically successful 'bread basket of Africa' status
Sale of farms and other non-essential assets for model
Huge farms for Palm Oil quietly maturing

Threats:-
Political Instability
Global push to reject beef consumption (but Zambeef covering off other animal meats)
CDC having agenda beyond that of ordinary shareholders

So the window for completion has been tightened from 12 months from Dec 20, to 6 months in Jan 21. Although first half of 21 was way too much to be hoped, its good to have a clearer anticipated target with a fully operational machine, clinically approved to full speed.

Without schedule slippage, and no further dilution, this should see a significant sp increase this year. Will we see a sudden multibag increase or a gradual rise. Initial sales will probably be treated with caution based on historical 'sales' announcements. What indicators will there be for the clinical approval? Will we start to see activities around the location for the first patient? Where exactly is that first location? Daresbury/Pebble Mill/Harley St?

Anyone care to guess at the s.p. with a fully clinically operational machine assuming the new guidance is accurate? A filled out order book, actual machine deliveries, patients being treated, income from the aftermarket are all yet to come, but what value do we put on this first key stage of moving from prototype to first model?

I'm assuming (probably stupidly!) that they will put some test patients through the system at Daresbury. Birmingham seemed to have set aside a building at the old pebble mill site where they could install a system but I think the first fully functioning will still be in Harley Street. There are several aspects of this and they seem to have kept focus on delivery of the supply chain rather than rushing into just a one-off first machine. Having a supply chain that can deliver 4 or more machines a year would allow sales to be firmed.

Smart drugs look like the biggest threat, but cancer seems to have outwitted most other cure-alls. A combination of single visit flash combined with smart drugs may lead to cancer becoming a minor annoyance rather than a multi-year life stopper for the patient and their nearest.

Just read the phrase about full financing Q1 again carefully. It could be read that the planning would be completed for full financing in Q1, not the actual financing.

This is like chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow - agree it has been next week/month/quarter/rainy season for too many years now.

Best thing I ever did with this share was to sell out when last ‘big’ rns proclaiming financing was not actually over the line. As expected it dropped back significantly and I was able to buy back in at a far lower price.

Would have been quids in had I started doing that the earlier. My view is that a real ‘big’ rns would see this dramatically re-rate and not just rise 10/20%.

Many will have made good money on the seesaw here but not yet the long termers.

Just seen another gene therapy treatment (for LHON) also reporting significant improvement in the untreated eye. That looked like a rogue result from our data but there may be some unexpected benefits here.

Nothing new that I could see. On scanned review, noticed that the model referred to 2.5 treatment rooms per machine at one stage, changing to 3 rooms per machine later. Again they admit briefly that synchrotons exist then base all comparisons solely on cyclotrons. No real info on when they expect any milestone will be hit in 2021.

Chocolate Teapot of a report

Clearly they have the finalised results and will publish after the weekend so why make any statement? Looks like a pure technicality for Lusaka Stock Exchange.

Dollar revenue holding up. Need to get elections out of way, and Kwacha stabilised, before this can motor again. Company still looks solid.