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Thoroughly expect to be diluted heavily and so have already diluted heavily in the market at these low prices. My take is that Woodford probably knew all the way that this was going to run out of money from experience. He got a dominant position and has effectively pushed out the other ii's allowing this to go private. Whizzbang new dynamic company, backed by Silicon Valley with product on market. Hanging on by coat-tails here hoping W has some decency!
Is there any real protection for small shareholders in a private company with a dominant shareholder? Do we trust that the benefits will eventually be shared equitably between all shareholders or will the PIs just be forced out at a pittance when it suits? To trust or not to trust.....that is the question...
My guess is they liquidate and Woodford and friends buy the assets for less than they are putting up here for taking it private. That would save on redundancy costs.....
Zambeef retains a positive outlook towards the regions in which it operates and has set its sights on continuing to grow #ProudlyZambian Positive twitter message just out from company
Looking at that photo, it is what I don't see that is more informative. If it was taken in the last few days, the steel for the piles has disappeared along with the piling rig. It may be workkng further into the site, but certainly the area is a lot clearer than a month ago. Could piling have been completed and they are readying for excavation?
My analysis of this one is as follows:- Treading water until political situation in Zambia stabilises one way or the other. If it heads strongly towards dictatorship there will be no future here but looks more likely that the current incumbent is being given enough rope to sort things out and Zambia will be looked back on as a model for how to take on wannabe dictators in Africa. I sense management continuity planning with alternate management options becoming available. The share option scheme seems to support a situation where the founders leave in a few years with a nice tidy profit but they have to get the share price back to where it was historically. I don't see any real reason why they cannot do this other than politics. The legacy price was based on expansion through africa and they seem to have been continuing that route and now have an investor on board strongly backing that with pots of cash. If I am right, the share price will be back up at 60p or so within a couple of years based on strong revenues from traditional verticals and new businesses of chicken and palm oil. And I keep saying there is Zimbabwe post Mugabe on the doorstep - rush to sell from the guys who were 'gifted' farms by Mugabe and new regime desperate to get the country going. Development fund would be right there with any necessary cash when needed. Africa risky - yes! Excellent management, excellent business model, agricultural risk spread over many lines, retail risk (losing Shoprite franchise) being mitigated by developing own chains. Vertical integration largely deals with typical Africa issues giving them in-house control of converting sun&water to value added consumer retail products. DYOR and this will look even better than the numbers suggest.
Very good point about them switching to/from the development model. I had not heard officially that they were going back to the development model, but it makes sense if finance is this tight. What that does say to me is that the Thales manufacturing is probably delayed/mothballed for the time being for money saving. It probably means then that the regulatory approval will be done by demonstrating the development machine, and that the documentation of the build of the development machine has been assessed as adequate by the new regulatory guy brought on board a few months back. Clearly someone has finally realised they can't spend freely on everything and jeopardise getting at least one working machine in commercial use for generating revenue.
...and then the fun can really start:- Fully tested and stable machine will leave the rocket scientists twiddling their thumbs. With a good load of extra cash from a funding round, those guys can look at firing the heavier nuclei through the machine to demonstrate the additional advantages of a linear machine. If you have a choice between a new-gem cyclotron that can do just protons or a linear machine that can do both protons and weird stuff, what do you think the big teaching hospitals with research profs keen on making their name will be pushing? The protons will be the bread and butter that satisfies the money men.
My overnight thoughts on yesterday are that we have enough dosh to get us to the end of the year. Not long but what will this look like then? Harley Street space created and into normal fit-out stage - de-risked Patient Chair fully developed - de-risked All modules tested and beam fired through at full speed - de-risked Missing for me at the moment is the Thales manufacturing progress? Will the first production machine for Harley St be being built by then? With a tested system to show and a real documented planning/construction process in difficult city centre to compare, then we should also have a few sales orders in place from those keen to get going. Regulatory is essential although likely straightforward if they have achieved control of the beam and are being professional about software design/test and manufacturing procedures. I believe the aim of going for skin only treatment first will get them to approval much quicker as one criteria needing to be met before some installation stage at Harley St. So by year end, we should have a largely de-risked leading edge technology, de-risked & de-scaled civil process (big advantage over older tech) for city-centre sites of major hospitals, some initial orders that could be beginning to provide alternate security for finance. With the above in place, an sp of 120p (say) giving a healthy 1 year profit on those that invested, they can go for another offer. Having shown a safety net, the high wire act can excite rather than scare!
The clear signal here is that the key investors will do whatever is necessary to make sure this is a success. Directors buying big chunks of shares had limited effect. Not quite achieved speed of light yet but maybe they need to add some SCDTLs to the share price trajectory.....
All I guess depends on what the contract states. If Bracknor can't make money following their current tactic of trashing the sp and they have no let out clause, then maybe they ought to try a different strategy and hold the shares and watch them grow.....or maybe do swaps for a proton beam machine order for Dubai....or..... loads of options. I think these financiers are nowhere in the league of the nuclear physicists/engineers who are getting this thing going.
... and another thing for anyone who thinks asking for £100m £200m is excessive, that hole in the ground will have easily cost that much and just for a bloomin' hole with nothing in it. Pour taxpayers money in a hole or build a world changing industry? Your choice....
Thanks for that video link - that provides the easiest comparison for anyone non-technical to understand why they should be investing in AVO. They can literally walk a few blocks down the road from that huge construction site and then peep through the boards at the tiny AVO Harley St site. Chalk and cheese! My own view on the investment is to tell the so-called financial experts to go take a running jump. This technology and business can easily be massive with the right amount of cash injection right now. If only they were bold enough to say we need £100m £200m or whatever and put out an offer again at about £1 per share. Boom or bust - what is there to lose? They would probably need some proven technology advanced state to go for that but this tinkering about the edges seems pointless and self defeating. I was invested in one share that did go for the bold 'invest in shares at double current price because that is what is needed' approach and the share soared. AVO would break the speed of light if the right bold deal was put on the table!
Finally have a foolproof strategy for this share:- When you can buy - don't When you can't buy - do! It seems every time I have been able to get a quote from my broker, the price has tanked thereafter. If however I find that the broker is only offering best price, and I'm lucky if they even bother trading all day, even for a small amount, then that is the time to buy!
I've noticed some big sells going through without any sign they affect the sp. Must be someone on the buy side but no rns as yet? Volumes look wrong. Agree it should be a bargain at these prices but who is buying?
Just been to the site today and all looks well organised. Surrounding buildings well shored up. Piles on site and I saw one actually being placed. Looks like a service pipe being installed from the main road through the mews, although not sure if it is for our site as not yet reached. No doubt in my mind that the site will be ready to receive at an appropriate time. The big question is will the machine be ready? Reading around the physics of accelerators, it does appear that the bit they have already done is the novel bit and the rest is pretty standard stuff. Plenty to go wrong in integrating these complex systems, but they appear to have the practical guys on board now.
...but John! When have you ever been able to predict the direction this stock will go? Not a good rns so maybe we will soar today.....
... or was that originally just a cover for anticipation of poor initial sales?
Deerhunter. That was it ! Couldn't be sure of the name of the film....
Deerhunter. That was it ! Couldn't be sure of the name of the film....