Financing26 Apr 2017 23:10
I've just been analysing the financing for my own interest.
Rough reckoning suggests to me that with the Bracknor initial tranche of £1.3m and the other £3m more recently announced and the burn rate, the next 6 months is financed without a problem. Bracknor have converted £700,000 so far of the initial £1.3m but have they sold....?? We probably won't find that out until further tranches of £1.3m are taken by AVO and then Bracknor converts (or does not) to trigger (or not) a significant shareholding.
If the more recent funding option of taking an extra £2m is taken up then we are likely through the rest of this year without any further Bracknot dipping required. I would be surprised if we cannot get some significant technical advance in that period that will bring back credibility of delivery. Harley St should also be past any critical unforeseen stages. Further Bracknor tranches are therefore likely to be more favourable against a higher share price.
My take on this is that the taking of the Bracknor remaining tranches up to the minimum of £13m will likely be end-loaded when a much higher share price is relevant. I still suspect that Dubai based Bracknor may be actually holding onto their shares but no-one except an insider can know for sure as they are unlikely to trigger a significant holding rns especially if I am right about the end-loading.
So what is happening? Directors happily picking up cheap shares at scared market prices. Directors seem to have mopped up all the Bracknor shares that have converted, that's if they have been sold by Bracknor, or else from a spooked market. Directors should be aware that significant technical delivery will take place over next 9 months making the sp bargain basement.
Directors appear to have turned the delays to their advantage. The machine will get delivered, scaredy cats in the market have sold out at a loss, some directors have a bigger share of the pie, and Dubai Healthcare City is my best guess as an early commercial sale or two.
Someone tell me where my speculation is going wrong please!!
DYOR or speculate madly like myself!!