Member Info for revolutionary

The board put out an rns over a year ago saying they were going into a development phase and warning on profits. That development phase appears to be ending with notices of re-stocking and compatibility with amazon and... (apple whispered as not yet explicit). Amazon more relevant right now as they are heavily advertising their speaker control and when early adopters seek out extra devices to link up they should find the lightwaverf devices newly restocked. When apple come through with their headphones and also start putting out glossy ads, voice control of the home should kick off. Don't hold your breath as this has been decades coming - who remembers Frank Spencer from the seventies having fun with an automated home? Lightwave have uk electrical focussed products so should be protected somewhat from the inevitable surge of cheap Chinese if this takes off.

My thinking is that the 'poor dears' at the institutions have to follow some valuation rules rather than go on a wing and a prayer like us pi's. Sensible dividend strategy articulated with the growth story if maintained for a few years would allow an institution to put a calculated value to Zam. At the moment they would have to do a little research which is not worth it for this type of small co

Dividend return would be a huge boost with f/y. That should be on the cards again with debt significantly reduced. Penny per share would be possible but suspect directors may delay another year to give themselves more options on how to achieve the growth necessary for their options to become valuable.

Before CDC came in, everything seemed to be conspiring to drive the sp into bargain basement territory for Rainbow to pick up an excessive portion of this company for a steal. Not good for other shareholders but very good expansion opportunity for Rainbow. Anyone looking at Zambian politics may also have been really nervous. No profits for last few years deters those who like solid figures. We have been told there will be materially better results this time. Only excuse I am expecting this time is the downturn in Ghana and Nigeria due to oil. Banning of trucks on roads at night is a future challenge. Otherwise just lots of crops growing, cows fattening, chickens breeding and retail expanding.

Was debating with myself over when would be right to rebalance away from Zam to more interesting prospects but Zam still won out on growth/risk Expect sp will triple in short order so even those others I expect to easily double in next year don't entice as much as they also have a heavy risk. Our spherical bog doesn't come close to these good 'uns!!

I don't have a figure but the formula below represents my feeling Pre contaminated political hoohah sales + retail growth + chicklets + little bit of palm oil - zamanita sales (who needs that when you have hectares of palm oil?) - exchange losses Next year, Zamanita should be long gone, booming palms and chickens, Nigeria and ghana coming good as oil money returns to those countries. Plenty of risks but better range of prospects and ridiculously low valuation with that lack of debt Within 5 years I see big investments into a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

JL - are you forgetting that the director's said that revenues were 'materially' better than the market is forecasting...... Roll on 25th Nov for 'loadsa money'

JL - I am using the share options granted to the directors as my guide as to where this will be in a few years. Using any other valuation method makes the sp look ridiculously low for a growing company. Some risks yes but lots of palms, crops, chicken pigs and cows growing with the retail expansion.

In response to JLs Buffett analysis, I would add that farming was always one of his favourites. Now off the cuff as I am on holiday here is a simple bit of analysis:- Strengths - vertically integrated control from land to retail - involved community - straightforward management - backed by uk government through cdc Weaknesses - Zambian/African politics - reliance on Shoprite link Opportunities - eu development billions to make migration less attractive - Post-Mugabe Zimbabwe Threats - global agricultural giants muscling in - disease drought war famine - Zambian politics Zambian politics gets a double whammy as currently in turmoil, Zambeef previously attacked through formaldehyde misinformation and tax, President controlled by Mugabe who hates white farmers, current opposition a main ranching rival I believe a German Agri giant is setting up shop in the same space. Could be a sign that there is plenty of growth available Two reasons I originally invested were - all the directors buying in strongly - cash in over the tills each month could have bought the company at its lowest sp I now see the additional benefit of the potential growth, the directors strongly incentivised to significantly improve so to at least 40+ and having given up salary for those options 60p in 3 years feels conservative within 3 years provided Zambian politics don't get in way Dyor and you also may also be pleasantly surprised!

"materially higher than current market expectations" roll on 60p within 3 years

Lungu who 'won' the election is mates with Mugabe. Other one who is disputing election result, HH, is a rival cattle rancher. Take your choice! Election outcome now depends on a few people in the constitutional court. Apparently large cheques have already been written in favour of the judges!

Don't think I'm sticking it out too far. Was a similar valuation a few years ago on anticipation of growth. Now they have actually grown and started harvesting cash from palms and chicks. Rainbow was a real worry - pooff gone Overwhelming debt - pooff gone Elections - .......

Don't usually stick my neck out but but this has been my core share for a long time and heavily biassed in my portfolio. As the saying goes 'bet the house on it'.

The directors took a pay cut some time ago and took share options in return......have a look at the prices that those options and you will get an idea of where this share is headed.....order of magnitude different.....this has been ridiculously low sp for a long time with the monthly cash from the tills being almost enough to buy all shares. Glad that Rainbow are out now - we could easily have been gobbled up if the directors had got into bed with them. I lived near Rainbow's huge farms near Durban 30 years ago that relied on the port to ship their chickens around the world. Zambezi can do the same for the lesser accessible parts of Africa with their supply chains. Excellent set of Directors creating wealth for a continent.

The obvious big ticket expansion is Zimbabwe and this will now put Zambeef in position to snap up excellent farms at bargain prices when Mugabe goes. Feed a starving nation at huge profit and win hearts and minds. Probably jumping ahead too far as usual but elimination of debt should allow this great company to expand at the speed that their crops/cows/chickens grow

If pound drops 10% then this should go up 10% or is that too naive?

I think this share is definitely suffering from the election - not Brexit rather the Zambian Presidential election. Looks like some very dubious activities going on, but they seem so openly brazen that they may be backfiring. Hoping for a peaceful outcome. Without these Zam elections, this should have been a winner during Brexit nervousness.

I guess this depends on the share price at the end of September. If we take the current price, then you would have to add approx 50% extra shares to the total issued to acquire the other half of zamchick&zamhatch. That values those two subsidiaries (half owned at present) as the same as the entire company. It would be a steal by Rainbow to be put in the position of just needing to spend a few million to acquire enough additional shares to complete a takeover of the entire Zambeef. However cash alternate puts back the debt shedding activity enormously. Think about it and we are already at the whim of the directors and ex-directory who could join forces and sell us out to Rainbow right now. Hopefully they need to consult shareholders before they make such a decision

That makes the current market valuation look ridiculously low. They are effectively buying half of a small section of the entire Zambeef business that on its own is valued close to the current Zambeef market valuation. My sums point to a value for Zambeef as a summation of its parts as in excess of 30p per share currently. No wonder the retiring director bought in heavily....

That surge was on tiny volumes - market makers playing games....