Member Info for Retireby40

Someone is confident spending £480,000 on 3m shares.

The sells just before were at 4p it looks like a buy for sure.

https://twitter.com/bigbitenow/status/1270246255042736128?s=21

From today's RNS ;
"Highly specific prototype test detects the virus spike protein at clinically relevant concentrations"
So its confirmed that #AVCT have a working test, which means it is de-risked and now will be optimised and move to production.
"delighted that the Affimer reagents that we have developed to detect the SARS-COV-2 spike protein are working very well in the BAMS assay."
"This bodes well for all our COVID-19 antigen test development programmes."
Further de-risking confirmed.
"the same BAMS assay for the spike protein can also be used for drug development efforts to screen compounds that block interaction with host cells through the ACE2 receptor to prevent virus infection."
So a part to play in treatments.
"the BAMS assay platform will allow researchers to monitor molecular changes that may occur through natural evolution of the virus."
Both interesting further developments that weren't previously known about.
A solid and necessary market update.

Future work will include testing Affimer reagents to other SARS-COV-2 antigens, such as nucleocapsid protein. Diagnostic assays to nucleocapsid protein may enhance sensitivity for detection of COVID-19 infection, since this is a highly abundant viral protein.

Expanding detection to other SARS-COV-2 antigens will enable configuration of a multiplexed BAMS assay to simultaneously monitor multiple viral proteins for added specificity in the case of future pandemics. The precision and accuracy of mass spectrometry detection using the BAMS assay platform will allow researchers to monitor molecular changes that may occur through natural evolution of the virus. "

https://twitter.com/bigbitenow/status/1270023472991875078?s=21

June placing presentation from #AVCT

So much able to happen now.

avacta.com/wp-content/upl…

Eg.

"Proceeds of the placing will allow Avacta to also file an IND in 2020" for AVA6000.

IND filing is new and wasn't in 6th May presentation.

Adds a bit of extra spice to that US strategic partner.

Interesting that AVCT now prepared to put more financial meat on that particular bone too ;

"$1.5bn* pa with a 5-10% royalty to Avacta plus development milestones in near term"

So circa $150m pa in royalty payments

That's just 1 drug only.

AVCT also then state ;

"Pre-clinical development of AVA3996 pro-velcade will
be restarted using placing proceeds."

with ref. to sales of $1.2BN by Takeda Pharmaceuticals.

Massive potential being unleashed by the placing.

Finally.

"Potential near-term value inflection points arising from launch of COVID-19 antigen tests and phase I clinical trial of AVA6000 pro-doxorubicin," which again the placement is driving.

Those tests are very much on their way.

Part of proceeds to be used to develop a pipeline of
pre|CISION pro-drugs, some of which have already
been synthesized, with an addressable market of
many $billions pa."

First 2 alone have annual sales of over $4BN. #AVCT aiming for 5-10%.

I'm coming around to this placing.

Annual Report p. 22

"More than ten other pre|CISION chemotherapies have
been synthesised and tested to varying degrees. The
most advanced of these is a pre|CISION form of a
proteasome inhibitor closely related to Velcade.

"This pre|CISION drug, AVA3996, could be ready for IND
filing in approximately twelve months."

Placing monies expedite this process by c. 3-4 months.

$1.2BN pa and AVCT aiming for 5-10% royalty.

https://twitter.com/buy_buy_bye/status/1269188981910052864?s=21

AVCT Finncap research note released y/day.

Highlights for me...
- 3 non covid partnerships established est value $500m + royalties
- 45% Stem Cell JV - Could be worth $1bn+
- 4 non covid tests...
- C.30 evaluations of Affimer tech ongoing
- COVID 100's millions tests p.m
Other non-covid diagnostics in development...
- Sepsis = $1.1bn market (Now ready)
- Fertility Testing = $8-15bn market (Ready for evaluation)
- Thrombosis = $2bn market (In development)
- Vitamin B12 = $220m market (In development)
Current partnerships
Avacta currently has three partnerships with Moderna, LG Chem and ADC Therapeutics that together have a total deal value, EXCLUDING royalties, estimated to be around $500m. (Non-Covid partnerhsips)
JV est. Jan20 w/ Daewoong.
Will develop next gen of allogeneic cell and gene therapies.
All R&D funded by Daewoong, w/ commercial rights to the Affimers’ use outside cell and gene therapy retained by Avacta.
Similar companies in early stage valued at $1bn
#AVCT own 45%
COVID-19 Rapid test (TP note)
The most efficient and simplest to use, early to market solution supported by comprehensive international distribution will likely capture the greatest slice of the commercial opportunity. Avacta appears positioned to secure this crown
Quidel Rapid test:
-Requires Nasal Swab and lab equipment.
- Only 80% sensitivity and 100% specificity...
- Not suitable for Mass Screening
= Added $2bn to M/cap!
Hundreds of millions of rapid tests could be required per month. Airports / home/ office.
Avacta confirmed that it is in discussion with other commercial partners / distribution partners for the healthcare professional/work-force testing markets.
Also OEM partnerships to maximise the commercial opportunity for its Affimer reagents
Collab w/ Adeptrix for BAMS Covid test.
To be used on readily available hospital MS machines enable significant expansion of the available testing capacity.
BAMS to be as sensitive/specific as PCR & can give capacity of up to 1,000 samples per day on a single MS...

JP Morgan Asset Mgt reduced its short further by 0.06% on 4th June. Now stands at 0.59%.
I assume they’ll look to reduce further next week as I imagine this is the beginning of Azure contract RNSs dropping. Surely AWS et al will see this and want to offer the same. The easier it is to get large clients to migrate to your cloud the more you’re likely to win.

The shares aren’t even on the market yet, 10 June and any TR1s will follow in the following days.

Glebewhite, I couldn’t agree with you more.

Many CEOs don’t engage and many shareholders are left in the dark as sometimes RNSs need a little explanation and especially when there are many that are inter-linked.

Anyway, have a good weekend all.

Wow, future proofing or rather rapidly adapting processes to ensure growth can continue. One step ahead as per. No doubt the presentation will generate a lot of leads. Great we have access to a P3 lab, have started working with the virus and have experience with other pathogens.

JP Morgan Asset Mgt reduced its short by 0.15% on 2nd June. Now stands at 0.65%.

https://mcusercontent.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/98bcd87a-8c76-410b-a844-7b8c358b5cc3/AvactaGroupplc_5_6_20_FINAL_BGv3.pdf

Worth a watch and related -

https://youtu.be/jmH8vlikaOY

The MMs make a market and there are clearly some offloading in the background. If there were many large buyers it wouldn’t continue to drop.

It hasn’t penetrated the US which is massive and the U.K. isn’t testing enough people and has huge spare capacity and it’s NCYT’s biggest market. It’s done £40m in revenue and needs to fulfil existing orders to get the cash in. More rivals coming to market some of which if successful won’t need PCR machines or perhaps labs so they’ll be defunct. The market is realising this. Of the sales/revenue figure nearly half is from PHE and I doubt they’ll renew after 6 months end of the year. Sorry to say it’s bad its peak.

Fair enough and I’m sure it’ll come. I’d expect once things are weeks, not months away from completion they’ll ramp up. Once testing the prototype with the virus in labs starts it’ll really kick off then all being well they’ll sign an OEM deal as the demand will be massive. You’d think most of the existing 3,000 MWG boxes will be retrofitted and they’ll sell many more new ones (award winners!) with it as standard.

Anyway, I believe it’d be premature to be gojng for massive PR when a prototype/testing isn’t imminent.

Fair play MrTrotter

This happened before with SARS -

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3087526/coronavirus-new-cluster-infection-expands-elderly

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/modern-water-plc_supreme-court-expands-epa-power-to-regulate-activity-6674112440332038144--LSo

The Chairman has been in position for a few months FFS, what do you expect? What’s happened on the short space of time has been nothing but positive. If you expect miracles in no time and aren’t impressed With the progress to date more fool you.

I imagine once a prototype is near to completion the PR machine will go into overdrive but it’d be premature now and they’re working hard behind the scenes at SKIN and MWG to get the real-time water monitoring into its final stages. In the meantime they’re getting large sales in and recurring revenues with reagents.

They’ve my complete backing.