Member Info for Retireby40

Is very doubtful before the panel discussion. Yes ideally Cytiva and AVCT would want a prototype completed in order to be able to fully take part in the discussion as the fact one isn’t ready implies they’re still overcoming issues or likely merely tweaking. They could publish a 5pm or 7am RNS but the timing would be too suspect and convenient. As if we’ve been complicit in withholding material news.

The prototype news could drop any day but don’t expect one by 7am tomorrow, my bet is one will come soon after and as suggested before July. The CEO reiterated his confidence and he’s clearly having regular updates (hence by end of June) so no need to panic if we don’t get a LFT RNS this week.

Maybe we’ll get news on BAMS and then LFT soon after. Looking good either way.

Sorry, 1 in 8 so 12.5% and only part of measures.

There is an effective inexpensive drug that can help 1/3rd of those on ventilators so great news and 20% of those really struggling with their breathing. They emphasised they hope to improve these figures using other drugs in conjunction and given ours isn’t used when patients are on ventilators it will hopefully compliment it and improve the survival rates. Not long to find out but given the current price it’s priced to fail so any further fall and I’ll be grabbing more.

Results good, no need for any rights issue due to loan available if needed. Ahead of income expected and looking good. Could test that 2.5p Resistance this week.

This has been another transformational year for Integumen. Building on an already successful business model, better than expected sales growth from higher revenues per client, lower management overhead from disposal of non-performing assets, and expansion into new areas requiring an increase of both employees and capacity, have set the business on a strong footing for 2020

-- May: RAWTest AI real-time alert system to be retrofitted in new Modern Water's Microtox units;

-- June: Labskin partners with University of Aberdeen to test COVID19 anti-viral skin and dental products.

Literally is a word miss-used so often it’s stupid (tautological) so I use it seldom.

I think there is literally no way Conifer have taken part in putting £10m in this placing to forward sell or short to make a fast buck as their modus operandi is the opposite. They met Alastair and many months ago and have subsequently carried out due diligence and finally invested at a massive premium to when they initially had AVCT on its radar.

The fact they’ve invested in a minnow and listed on the AIM not a MAIN market listing speaks volumes.

Are good for liquidity but can make BBs a little feisty. All good. If you’re invested ignore the BS.

Ultimately Conifer engaged AVCT for nearly a year have invested at 120p and if their due diligence wasn’t so robust (even more so for a minnow and AIM listed) they could’ve invested at 15p when courting started. They’ve invested knowing 2/3rds of the total money raised is going to Therapeutics and of the money going to diagnostics only a portion For Covid-19.

Look at their record and the fact they’ve even considered AVCT is a plus let alone investing at nearly 10 fold what they could have done. They know more then all of us.

#Integumen and @Labskin are now in Containment Level 3 labs in Aberdeen University working with SARS-CoV-2 and will integrate into wastewater and dental labs for real-time alert system with #MWG. Milestone news over next weeks/months watch this space

https://twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1271863027537711104?s=21

Again, valid points. FYI I’m not selling any shares for a good while yet, given the circa £60m war chest I’m staying for many months if not years given we’re able to accelerate programs. Exciting times short term with Covid but even more so after which is why Conifer invested as they’ll look at the big picture and their track record speaks for itself.

Good point. Cytiva would ideally love to have a prototype by the date and I’m sure will be busting a gut to but given they didn’t select the date it’s far from certain.

Avacta's Commercial Director @DSWilsonDx will be speaking on the @LabRoots webinar 'Critical design considerations for COVID-19 rapid POC diagnostic test development'.

https://www.labroots.com/webinar/panel-discussion-critical-design-considerations-covid-19-rapid-poc-diagnostic-test-development

I imagine they’re really keen to get the specificity and sensitivity really high as they could no doubt launch sooner and be good enough to get validated but they wanna be head and shoulders. I still maybe naively expect some kind of RNS re Cytiva by Wednesday ahead of the panel discussion as why have our commercial director talking about overcoming issues developing LFTs if we haven’t got one in prototype. It’d be odd to say we’ve overcome some issues but are still working on others. I hope I’m right but if not it can’t be far behind!

I assume they’ll have recurring revenues with the reagents and AI and that’s where the easy money is. A massive opportunity.

https://twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1271367805380767745?s=21

In Germany, where the testing capacity is highest in Europe at about 100,000 clinical assays per day (NYT, 2020), almost 3 months of non-stop testing would be required to assess the infection status of the entire 83 million population just once

Comprehensive screening of a nation's population using individual test kits is not only expensive (c$1.25 billion for Germany for assay reagents only) but also impractically slow (3 months, during which major changes can occur in the prevalence of the virus in the community).

In contrast, all of Germany's 9636 wastewater treatment plants could easily be sampled and analysed within 24 to 48 hours, due to the country's favourable transportation and testing infrastructure, at a cost for reagents alone of only $145,000 USD for a single sample test

Alternatively, all of Germany's 9636 wastewater treatment plants could easily be monitored, without transportation and testing infrastructure, no reagents required for consumables of $145,000, but, in real-time 24 hours 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year #MWG #SKIN

70% of the US population could be screened once for SARS-CoV-2 community spread by analysing in 48 hours all 15,014 wastewater treatment plants at an estimated reagent cost of approximately $225,000. Or real-time 24/7/365 hotspot detection consumables per month with #SKIN #MWG

Clinical screening of all Americans leading to reagent costs alone amount to some $3.5 billion USD per sampling event. Compare that to real-time hotspot detection with #MWG #SKIN once it goes live.

Even if the cost of reagents for clinical screening could be reduced by 99%, the associated costs and logistical challenges still would render this approach questionable and unresponsive to the need of retesting a population to learn about new and repeated infections

Wastewater based epidemiology today could reach some 2.1 billion people around the world whose household is connected to one of the approximately 105,600 wastewater treatment plants operated globally

https://twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1271367805380767745?s=21

In Germany, where the testing capacity is highest in Europe at about 100,000 clinical assays per day (NYT, 2020), almost 3 months of non-stop testing would be required to assess the infection status of the entire 83 million population just once

Comprehensive screening of a nation's population using individual test kits is not only expensive (c$1.25 billion for Germany for assay reagents only) but also impractically slow (3 months, during which major changes can occur in the prevalence of the virus in the community).

In contrast, all of Germany's 9636 wastewater treatment plants could easily be sampled and analysed within 24 to 48 hours, due to the country's favourable transportation and testing infrastructure, at a cost for reagents alone of only $145,000 USD for a single sample test

Alternatively, all of Germany's 9636 wastewater treatment plants could easily be monitored, without transportation and testing infrastructure, no reagents required for consumables of $145,000, but, in real-time 24 hours 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year #MWG #SKIN

70% of the US population could be screened once for SARS-CoV-2 community spread by analysing in 48 hours all 15,014 wastewater treatment plants at an estimated reagent cost of approximately $225,000. Or real-time 24/7/365 hotspot detection consumables per month with #SKIN #MWG

Clinical screening of all Americans leading to reagent costs alone amount to some $3.5 billion USD per sampling event. Compare that to real-time hotspot detection with #MWG #SKIN once it goes live.

Even if the cost of reagents for clinical screening could be reduced by 99%, the associated costs and logistical challenges still would render this approach questionable and unresponsive to the need of retesting a population to learn about new and repeated infections

Wastewater based epidemiology today could reach some 2.1 billion people around the world whose household is connected to one of the approximately 105,600 wastewater treatment plants operated globally

The next phase will be more efficient testing with less hospital resources being employed or doing more.

Too much hospital resource is being diverted from its normal duties. Options that alleviate that or produce better results, will surely start to rise to the top.

So the whole idea that tests that have market share now will hold that, no matter what, is for me absurd.

Offer to take the majority of the work completely out of government hands and hand it to business/ the individual, as #AVCT is looking to achieve, and the whole game changes completely.

Any government shipping costs for furloughed employees, would surely bite that hand off.

https://twitter.com/bigbitenow/status/1270975389884653569?s=21

Countries recording highest number of new Covid cases to date (last 24 hours). Source Worldometer.

Pakistan (4.78)
Mexico (1.16)
S.Arabia (7.92)
India (13.99)
Bangladesh (4.87)
Argentina (5.57)
Brazil (NA)

Countries recording 2nd highest number of cases in last 24 hours :

Chile (3.97)
Bolivia (2.2)

The bracketed number is the number of tests performed per confirmed case, as recorded by 'Our World in Data'

To place the level of testing by these nations in context, the UK is recorded as having 46.92 tests per confirmed case, as of 8th June.

As a whole, yesterday the world recorded its highest number of daily Covid cases to date, at 134,705

Clearly the above nations aren't testing enough and if they did, then the true number of world cases would rise significantly.

India as an example, still only testing 100k per day but daily confirmed cases up to over 12,000

In the US a number of states have very recently seeing a surge in cases. One of them is Arizona, a county that has also experienced a heat wave, with temperatures over 90 degrees of late.

Same temperature issue can be said of India, Mexico, Bangledesh, S. Arabia

So where is the true rest bite from Covid cases when the sun starts to shine?

As posted yesterday, Covid is now expanding in countries that cannot drive measures as strongly as Europe could and so its effects are more startling, be it hidden right now.

Will these countries increase their testing regimes, if given the chance?

Well Mexico City has just announced a programme to increase testing, which goes against the Fed government's position of it being a waste of resources.

Will others follow? Who knows?

However, that's not the point. The point is how does the world rid itself of Covid quickly, when so many poorer countries have such a clear widespread problem with the virus and cannot control their outbreaks.

To date, heat is not doing the job.

So how long can places like Europe shut itself off from these parts of the world? How does Europe protect itself from further outbreaks, if Covid is so embedded in the world?

For me its testing and lots of it and for a sustained period.

I believe investors have got to get their head out of their European strongholds and think more globally.

The reason I like #GDR is because they are aiming at Covid markets that are likely going to create the greatest long term revenues.

Treatments and vaccines, however good they may eventually turn out to be, are not going to reach these markets in the sort of numbers needed, to control the virus.

I don't care what big pharma says, the harsh reality for me will be far less accommodating.

Other things that I believe is being missed here, are quality, ease of use and cost to implement. 1st phase testing was all about upping testing capacity.

The next phase will be more efficient testing with less hospital resources be

Ok. Please let me clarify. I apologise if this comes across as patronising to any reader, I would just like this to be clear to everyone.
- Geography: In the USA, for Tech investments, think West Coast (California) as VC territory, think East Coast (NYC) as Institutional Money and Equity Markets.
- Tech startups are predominantly funded out of the West Coast, with the ambition of being publicly listed on the East Coast.
- Sequoia Capital is a VC (Venture Capital) only fund legal structure. It cannot invest directly in publicly traded companies.
- A VC’s aim is to invest rounds of capital into a startup until it is mature enough to be IPO’d or Sold to a Corporate.
- Sequoia Fund is the other end of the spectrum. It is a long only, public equity fund. In this case, run by some of the most respected fund managers in the USA on the Berkshire Hathaway model (not surprising as Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Bill Ruane are old friends and co-investors. Greg Alexander has been mentored by these boys as the heir to the throne).
The two holding structures (each structure has multiple funds within, so it’s a bit misleading to say ‘this fund’ or ‘that fund’) have a long history in tech investment, with many of the startups identified and grown by Sequoia Capital, finding their way into Sequoia Fund, amongst others.
In the case of Avacta, investment can only be made via Sequoia Fund. However, the sources of capital that invest into both of these structure and the people who manage them are the same.
The US tech investment ecosystem is very incestious, especially at the top end of the market where the Whales live...and Sequoia Capital and Fund are two of the oldest, biggest and most respected.
If one chooses to believe these structures and managers do not collaborate, then one chooses not to recognise how the US tech investment community operates. This ‘old school network’ is how they rarely lose.
I see nothing but positives for Avacta. Good luck.

A simply pasted johnnyb1’s post as I have below -

Conifer is an investment vehicle of Sequoia. A fund typically creates a number of these LLC?s to which investors are Partners or LP?s. Conifer is one of these. Hope this is helpful.

You are entirely correct. ‘Strategic’ can take many forms. Here are my thoughts for what they are worth and why, for the long-term, this is probably the most important announcement yet, perhaps until exit;
1. Sequoia has the Finacial resources to have taken the entire placing of $48m and lost it in a balance sheet rounding error. ie, they must love this to have got involved at only £10m.
2. They are a VC (Venture Capital) fund. It is virtually unheard of (due to their model and mandates) to invest in a publicly traded company. So, they must REALY love this.
3. Sequoia have a massive following in the US. It’s investments are watched by the entire market. The average investor/fund in the USA only dreams of being able to get in at the ground floor of a Sequoia investment, which are almost all private. Now they can and word will get around.
4. Sequoia has a legendary analyst team/department that constantly scans the landscape, rigorously and forensically examining and sifting investment opportunities. That they have identified and selected Avacta against the competition is highly impressive.
5. This investor has the power and influence to do two very important things for the longevity of Avacta.
Firstly, it can play honest broker to any ‘Strategic partner’ with the ability to fund expansion without recourse to other funds ie, a very big friend with very big pockets at the end of the phone.
Secondly, it can fend any takeover bid. It has more immediately deployable capital and access to further capital than any Pharma.
All of these factors add up to, in my view, being the most important ‘Strategic’ development, this or any current AIM company will have experienced in years.
This is ‘Big Leagues’

Pretty much all PLCs have delayed publishing FY results due to the audits. They’ll generally have the auditor in for a couple of weeks to run through queries and given they can’t do that it takes longer. We should get them on or before June 30th.

This wants to move north. It’s NT to buy 10,000 shares but I can sell 75,000 for 16.25p. Looking strong again.