This Time Next year3 Jul 2025 20:47
Whilst it is quiet, I decided to ponder potential market share. In the annual report presentation, the potential market value was stated to be $10bn. Rather than focus on a value, I looked at the number of potential “Major Surgeries”; there does not seem to be a definition of this term and each country will view it differently. Using ChatGPT, I came up with the following numbers:
USA: 15-20m
EU: 15-20m
UK: 3m
Being conservative, the potential market could be 30m treatments per year. Predicting the rate at which Steriwave will be used is a matter of opinion at this stage, taking account of entrenched views on treatments and competition.
The cost of the treatment on 10/06/24 was stated to be CA$71 and on 15/05/25, the gross margin was stated to be 64%.
Since Mölnlycke are supporting the marketing /sales of Steriwave, their costs need to be considered.
If When the FDA phase 3 trial is successful, this could be a very profitable share.
I will leave it to you to do your own calculation, but I know what my valuation is and it is higher than the RBC price target of 55p.