Member Info for RegulatorUK

"Why fight it? It couldn’t be more obvious where this is going. All you have to do is wait and be rewarded, it’s that difficult."

He's clearly not invested... NoviceInvest is just an attention-seeking troll.

"Where did I ever say that it would be my last post... Learn to read bud."

I think you're the one lacking in reading comprehension. The meaning of kfordearp's post was perfectly clear to those with even basic literacy skills.

"Why are they all wearing ears of corn in their lapels? I thought it might be to do with harvest festival but looked it up and it’s not until October! Are they perhaps wishing the weeks away until there is a proliferation of LTFs available?"

Supposed to signify support for British farmers (before they are all decimated by Brexit)...

"I think that it's time that we take pity on ODX and allow them to make our tests."

Except we (I too have a holding in Avacta) don't actually have any tests to make yet...

"Because ODX is just a manufacturer who also has a few HIV tests. ODX is over valued at the moment in my eyes. Limited profit margin and limited manufacturing capacity, and NO orders. 300-400%???? You must be joking."

Trot on numpty troll... go play on the Avacta board.

...seem noticeable by their absence today. Long may it last!

I'd love it to get to the low 70s today...

"I mean the maximum capacity of all UK based diagnostics tests has to be a fraction of 462m tests a week!!! How do you manufacture and distribute? Think of thee waste in the plastic. The carbon footprint of the distribution?

Antibody tests could provide immunity certificates to make a certain percentage exempt, but it would still be upwards of 50m people. How do you prove an individual has taken a test before leaving the house?"

Oh I agree.

I think it could be feasible alongside antibody testing/antibody passports for targeted groups (e.g. key workers) during a wide lockdown scenario. I think Johnson was doing his usual idiotic and incompetent over-promising...

"If you have the antibodies and are classed as immune (until further studies show otherwise) why would you need to take a daily test?"

I think the reality is, we know that not everyone will produce long term antibodies (the problem is we're too early in the timeline to be able to say definitely) and we know people can be reinfected (we now have clinical evidence of that). Regular repeated antibody tests would be required. The question that needs to be answered is the frequency of that retesting.

"There is not a chance we could all take a test every morning. That's 24bn tests a year of 462m per week. Ludicrous."

It's feasible in the short term, whilst any potential vaccine is developed and tested. We have equivalents (e.g. T1 diabetes) but this are much smaller numbers admittedly. I think it could be done but the cost would be horrendous.

I think this just shows that the Bloviating Idiot in No 10 really has no grasp of the size of the problem and is making tabloid promises he (and certainly his Chancellor of the Exchequer) won't keep...

"Yeah it says that Morethanme. And Colin also said a key organising principle and advantage for ODX is the ability to refocus to meet demand. Why bother with the lab tests if no-one wants them? They're causing bottle-necks because they are so slow to process. If they can get instant results from home tests which can obviously be delivered in hospital settings too if they are gold standard then lab tests will soon be a bit redundant. We have already CE marked the antigen test. Way ahead of schedule. We must have moved that schedule forward."

We have not CE marked the antigen test (either ELISA or LFT).

"I didn’t realise the LFT antigen year had been CE marked, I thought that it was the antibody test that had been CE marked?

Any chance you could share where you’ve seen that?"

Neither of the antigen tests (ELISA or LFT) are currently CE marked.

I think people - particularly in the media and government - don't understand the limitations of PCR testing. It's not as accurate as some might think (the sensitivity rate can be as low as 71%, which would lead to very significant numbers of false negatives: https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1808.full.pdf) and its accuracy is also impacted by when within the infection cycle the sample is taken and what type of sample is taken.

"Airports are Hotspots for the spread of CV19. Testing should have been in place at our airports long ago. Boris and this govt are an absolute shambles. It's as if they want CV19 to run riot on our shores, USA is the same."

I don't believe that there is any evidence that airports per se are hotspots - although there is emerging evidence that aircraft are (recirculation of air in a confined space over long periods is never a good idea). That said, I agree that testing at airports needs to be a priority, as it will potentially pick up symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers.

I was almost yelling at the radio this morning when Mattie Hanc0ck was saying that there was no evidence that offices and schools were transmission hotspots.... that would be because they've been closed for the last 6 fecking months you cretinous pondscum! And the evidence since schools have reopened would very much suggest that they are transmission hotspots.

I notice that Hattie Manc0ck was also very careful to avoid mentioning pub and restaurants... where there is very clear - and growing - evidence that significant transmission is occurring. But then, he wouldn't want to upset his paymasters, would he..?

It's not that bad news. Trials are routinely suspended if an issue like this arises. Given the numbers of test subjects involved in the trial (my partner, a front line hospital consultant, is one of them) it is inevitable that someone will fall ill. This is actually the second time that the trial has been paused.

It's done to enable independent assessors to determine whether the illness the person is suffering from is any way related to the trial. There is no evidence so far (in the public domain) that the illness this time round is linked to the vaccine or the placebo, although what I've heard suggested is the issue might (and I must stress this conjecture at the moment) be linked to the placebo that was used.

I would expect the trial to resume within a week or so - these sorts of assessments are usually fairly quick. It won't really have any material impact on the testing requirements or those producing tests. The poor reporting by parts of the media is more likely to have an impact on public confidence in the vaccine - particularly if they're part of the anti-vax /anti-mask conspiracy theory brigade. I only hope the media will be more responsible going forward.

Interesting interview with Hattie Manc0ckk on the R4 Today programme this morning. He was pushed around the testing capacity (molecular, antigen and antibody). The interviewer picked up on the fact that the four pillars and three types of tests were conflated when the government talked about capacity, which Hanc0ck really didn't like having pointed out - and he got really snippy when he was reminded that PCR testing capacity wasn't meeting demand.

Hanc0ck tried to blame the public for asking for too many tests! He suggested that people should only ask for a test if:

(a) they're symptomatic; *and*
(b) they're told to get one by a healthcare professional or contact tracer.

The first is fair enough - but the latter has never been a requirement. In fact, only a few weeks ago Hattie Manc0ck and The Twat in No 10 were telling eveyone there was capacity for everyone to get a test if they needed one and all they had to do was go online and book/order it.

When challenged about the idea that it required advice from a healthcare professional, Manc0ck denied he'd said that - even though it was only seconds before - and then repeated it in his following sentence.

The man's an incompetent f*uckwit and - although the public are to blame for much of the spread - it's clear the government are going to use the public as an excuse to wash their hands of their criminally incompetent handling of the pandemic to date.

"Hypermarlin, I think you're right in the approach.
I don't know where AVCT are in the development/validation cycle though."

Way behind. The reality is that they're not even at validation stage, or near CE marking for professional use. I've got some AVCT shares but I don't think they'll boom as much as ODX. There seems to be a lot of hype around the AVCT test, in part based on its inclusion in the CONDOR process, but little real concrete milestones. They also don't have the range that ODX has.

One of the things I've liked about ODX from the beginning is the lack of hype from the management team. Instead we've had a realistic timetable - and, where they've been in control of that timetable, they've quietly and consistently delivered.

"What time is the news conference please?"

There seems to be some confusion as to whether this is a statement to Parliament or a press conference. If a statement to Parliament, then it would be after PMQs at around 12.30 pm.

"They can't process 10million more javelin up the nose tapping on your brain tests everyday.

Get our test rubberstamped ASAP"

If the swabs going up your nose it's being administered incorrectly. Swab is back of the throat but only just around the inside of the nostrils.

You have to bear in mind that when the government talk about testing and capacity, they're talking about all four testing pillars and all tests types - unless they specifically say otherwise. It allows them to inflate/conflate testing capacities.

I'd recommend listening to yesterday's Radio 4 PM programme (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mcz3), where a really good explanation of the testing capacity was provided.

The professional POC test is effectively 'signed off' when it is CE marked. MHRA approval will be needed for the self-use test. That will depend in part on how long the U of U takes to write the research report and get it through it's internal processes. I'd hope that would be streamlined and out the end of this week/beginning of next. I'd then expect MHRA approval within a week. So I'd say where looking at HMRA approval of the self-use test by the end of next week at the earliest.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the gov't place a substantial order before all the governance paperwork is signed off. They are desperate for a 'good news' dead cat story...