Member Info for redwineday

61.6 as I write. On Friday the company was valued at 55p ps. So for an RNS announcing a fully carried deal with a super major, the market values that at 6p.

A 63m carry divided by the post JHI dilution share count = 11p per share but this morning Mr Market has decided that the value of the oil in the ground has decreased by 5p per share. Mathematically absurd! A neutral reaction should be 66p!

Excellent work Gil and all. Must be so satisfying seeing the work starting to pay off.

We should see raised broker targets later in the week. Guyana news can only be days away. Market will surely walk this up over the next days.

Gil is listed as a speaker and I would imagine Keith Hill will be attending too. Plenty of opportunities for potential handshakes.

Nige

If you take 15x as the mid point then even before any revenue or margin growth that takes you to 1.68 per share. At 120m which he could do on 20% margin, i.e. without any revenue growth (which seems to me to be unthinkable over the next couple of years ) you'd be at £2.60. IMO this is an 8 bagger from here before he sells.

Completely agree. S4 is his last swing of the bat. His ego won't let it go for less than 3-4 quid a share IMO. Might be a couple of years away but he'l get it there.

We are moving into the window one would expect news from the ministry regarding approve of the appraisal well. 60 days working days (the time allowed from a submission to response) is, assuming Jan 14 was the trigger date, by my calculation next Friday. Could be a bit earlier though as they may have submitted the documentation in advance of the RNS date. Exciting!!

It's ironic that that article is itself AI generated content. We are all about to get (more) overwhelmed with meaningless information.

Looking at the trades it could be. I'm actually surprised they haven't posted a reduction notification since the update. Longer they stay in the more expensive is going to be for them to get out in what looks like a liquidity vacuum.

On such thin volume the MMs can take the price down and test the stop loss limits as they go, it's easy pickings for them on thin volume days. If the Guyana MNR 60 working day rule holds (for an answer to the appraisal submission) then there is still up to three weeks to go before news drops. Assuming the news is positive it will price gap up sharply from wherever it has settled as clearly there are not that many sellers around.

He basically said, we have messed up the forecast before so we are being cautious

By my calculation based on yesterday's close EV/EBITDA is 2.7x. This is a nonsensical valuation for a company unless it's going bust. WPP with all its uncertainty is 5.5x.

Looks quite optimistic to me, at least by recent comparison, revenue forecast basically flat and margin forecast to increase. Mention of buybacks.

GSA will surely look to exit tout suite!

Big day for S4 -

Balance sheet will look strong but have they stopped the revenue rot and is the margin recovering. If the answer is even a mildly positive take, we'll be at 30p by the end of the week.

More interesting in the shorter term was the slide at 41 mins calling out Guyana and SA. Google translate tells me they talk about being in technical analysis. I don't think they would be calling either or both of them out if they weren't thinking of following through.

The HL situation is a farce. Final straw for me, I'll be upping sticks..

Wow! 1m shares changing hands. Eco has come a long way.

By my calculation 10% of the free float has changed hands in the past week or so coming from retail profit takers to institutional accumulation. Any institutional buying a this point is a strong sign of confidence, they weren't here at 7-27p but are happy building positions at 50p plus. Each to their own but for me patience is required and I believe by the end of this year we will be far north of here.

Great news harel. Any other Eco related snippets?

Been watching this closely in the past few days. You can see GSA spraying small trades to knock any rise back down towards the 20p level, they are most definitely in control here give such thin volume. Graveyard would be another way to put it.

I think next week will be the most important update for the rest of the year with the outcome binary for the SP. If he tells us the revenue forecast is flat or even a little bit ahead and margin improving it should move decisively and they will finally depart. OTH if we get another macro conditions speech I fear it will be stuck here for the foreseeable. The problem is with the president cheeto face making it up as he goes, along it's likely to be the latter and for once it won't be SMS BS'ing.

When I look at the AT buying, even above the current ask and with the amount of shares changing hands I see either one or more institutions loading up big time. They are not doing this for a 10% return. Whether there is news incoming or not we are guessing but these guys are buying big for a reason. Hold on to their coat tails!