RE: Valuation change20 Jul 2019 12:53
S2020
I'd agree and for later, which we already might have an indicator whether it's software or chip, the F in FCA and Ford Europe, if it has any new models from May 2022 must have the chip in mind, not surprising as the C in FCA opted for the chip as did Ford USA.
There's evidence of what's going to happen by looking at what's already happened.
The last contract in Europe was SEYEs two model contract extension with BMW for two models in 2019 & 2021.
SEE has taken over from SEYE at BMW, beat them to Mercedes and appears to be displacing SEYE at Audi /VW. SEE also looks like it will win Volvo.
SmartEye won JLR early on, these are early (convenience) models and Tata (owners of JLR) appears to be working with Visteon whose offering looks like SEE tech.
That leaves, amongst the big boys Renault (Europe), Peugeot and xxx???? in Europe which considering the clock keeps ticking and the associated time scales points to the chip being the choice of solution.
So, come 2022, it looks like Europe is sewn up.
Then to Japan. There's talk of Jungo and I think Eyesight (and others) having won in Japan as well as SEYE winning Mitsubishi but these either appear for elsewhere other than Japan or early convenience DMS.
As the Big 3 sell globally they will want a solution that meets legislation globally and locally. There is a caveat to this - where it also sells into a mass market with less stringent legislation, has a production facility in the legislation lite area and makes economic sense.
Other than that, it will have no option to go for the safety solution which is available on a chip, which from decision time to on market time is roughly half that of the software only route. So, it looks like where safety is included, Japan will go for SEE tech. This includes Nissan whose Pro Pilot 2.0 may be adequate pre 05/22 but is not up to scratch after that date.
The USA has been all SEE, mainly chip, and appears to be sewn up.
Then there is China. There have been a number of contract wins announced in the last year which give a strong indicator it's convenience and had been planned for some time prior to the announcements, all bar Byton that is who have global markets in mind from day 1.
Geely sells virtually all its products in China, Hyundai 14 models are also destined for China as are the the two Renault /Mitsubishi models. It appears SEYE saw this coming some time ago as, other than JLR which may also follow, it recognised it would not be able to bridge the gap from convenience to safety prior to when the decisions were to be made.
Globally, it looks like KK could be right, there will be at least four providers of 'DMS' from which OEM's can choose. The only problem is there is at present only one safety DMS provider but 3+ convenience DMS to choose from and I suppose it's possible Renault, for example, will have both SEE and SEYE tech in cars for models produced post May 2022. As for the percentages, that's another question!