Member Info for Redheadedrager

@Illbetabuck

Where are you? I’ve cleared my 100% gain so now out (well I’ve left a few 10s of ‘000s of shares - not pounds worth - behind just to see how they ride over the next couple of weeks).

Personally see TCG as still woefully undervalued. Even with the debt (go on remind us again of the fantasy figures set by the low life BOD as funding requirement for winter . . . Bwahaha).

Funny how the BOD are still silent. Still $h!tting themselves that their goose is cooked, their goose has been gandered and they’ve been caught with with no clothes on in some weird parody of the Emperors New Clothes by NK calling out ‘But actually it’s a bloody good firm’).

Hey ho, no doubt you’ll stay quiet until there’s a short attack when you’ll be back trotting out the same bonkers concepts of how TCG is totally kaput, it’s inevitable that the city suits are going to carve if up like fillet mignon and there’s nothing IIs or other interested parties can do about it. Hocum.

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

Yes, have a lie down in a darkened room with a cold, wet flannel on your forehead. Take some pain relief too.

It does provide you with a headache if NK has been buying the debt too doesn’t it?

Tomorrow morning will be extremely interesting.

- formal offer from NK?
- TCG board advising against discussion with NK?
- Fosun reconsidering it’s position?

Who knows?

As the Chinese saying goes “May you live in exciting times.” - and that’s not actually a blessing.

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

The pint that you’re patiently ignoring is that if the banks and the bond holders can get their coupon and capital paid in an ongoing basis they’d infinitely prefer that to owning a travel company.

They don’t want to own a travel company. If they did, they’d have bought one . . .

Any alternative solution to the D4E which gives a reasonable assurance over the Bonds and Loans being repaid (majority of Bonds don’t mature until 2022 earliest) would be preferable.

Also the IIs are still out there and unlikely to vote for the D4E if a better, non-dilutive offer is on the table.

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

You’re wrong. Overall short position is closing from peak.

Will drop considerably early next week.

That’s a fact.

As much as your fact is a fact.

Have a lovely weekend.

Until Monday

Cheers

Red

Yep. That was declared on 31 July. Same day NK declared his positions. Will be interesting to see what happens to short positions early next week. . .

Red

No really I am.

;-)

Red

@Ambly

Erm, so NK will acquire and carve out / sell off the airline then?

Wow, this is hard going. . .

There are a lot of people who really don’t want TCG to survive.

You can almost feel them willing it to fold, for the hedges to take the money both ways shorting the stock and owning the debt, for IIs who basically invest in TCG your and my pensions on our behalves to take a bath as well as any PIs.

It turns my stomach to see management boards drive companies into the ground through poor decision making over leveraging and poor cost management, and then vulture funds swoop in and tear the carcasses to shreds.

Anyone who shorts and bets on failure is of questionable moral fibre in my view.

But what the hey I suppose in some way it does make for a more efficient distribution of capital - a bit Darwinian and all but it’s always the hedgies that prosper . . .

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

Yes ‘tis true. But what would the IIs vote to be wiped out?

Invesco AM 15%
SL investments 6.15%
Marathon 5.03%
Orbis 4.99%
Capital Guardian 4.97%
BlackRock 3.87%
Jupiter 3.51%
Morgen Bank 2.46%
L&G 2.06%

Plus NK 8.7%

Gives over 55% - enough to block a poor deal for the IIs (wipe out of the shareholder value)

Cheers

Red

Fosun would have the same issue.

@YinYang

Read NKs biog. Not his style. End of.

Cheers

Red

Hmmm - yes because it’s totally possible to go and buy 25% of a company off the shelf . . . Because there’s 25% of the shares not sat on long term IIs books.

What % of TCG shares are actually available in free float?

It’s called stakebuilding and it takes time . . .

Cheers

Red

YinYang

You have read the Bloomberg article haven’t you?

“We believe Thomas Cook has more value and potential than what is being discussed recently, particularly with the skillset and complementary capabilities Anex Tour shall put forward,” Kockar said in an emailed statement on Friday, referring to his own travel company.”

That is shorthand for ‘we will acquire and integrate into the group’.

Cheers

Red

Dreaming would be saying he’d pay off the debt pile.

Using group assets to de-Risk a financial restructure in part is normal business.

NK is not a short term, company wrecking, hedgy.

He is an extremely successful, long term, profitable business building entrepreneur. Read his biog.

You think he’s doing this and putting his name all over it to make a quick buck?

Really.

You need you head checking my friend.

Cheers

Red

NK has stepped out to the market and said - I want to acquire TCG in just about as bold plain English as he can without making a formal offer.

Blimey it’s hard work here isn’t it?

Because - and wait for it, it’s a killer.

He will renegotiate the terms of the debt based upon his group underwriting the debt.

£700m due Q3 evaporates like that - ‘pfft’ restructured.

That is more realistic than your hypothesis, Father Christmas, the Tooth Fairy and your alter ego Captain Hook - tock tock!

Cheers

Red

Simple fact is this. TCG is run very poorly.

Poor cost management

Poor financial structuring

Poor relationships with debt holders

NK will change that. He has a highly effective business model.

He’ll sling BOD out in their ear.

He’ll renegotiate the debt with the FI debt holders leveraging his existent relationships.

You’ll be surprised how quickly they can change their tune when assured of the repayment profile.

Banks don’t want to own companies - they want their coupon paid and the capital returned. They don’t want ownership of a Chinese owned sub-optimally managed cash bleeding travel firm.

They want their coupon and capital from a well managed cash generating safe bet, which is what TCG will be once NK takes control and throws the current bunch of muppets on the BOD out on their ear.

Of course the board are fighting it. They’re in with Fosun, onto a safe bet if they steer TVG into the rocks.

They’ll oppose NK with all their might.

But NK can buy out TCG (gain control) with a pen stroke if he wishes and get the debt holders on side smartish.

My money is on an offer mid-next week. All cash and a side deal with the debt holders to restructure with no D4E swap. BOD gone in days post agreement.

IIs will vote for it, Fosun against, BOD against (for self preservation reasons). By that point NK and IIs will have >60% votes so ‘hostile bid’ will go through at about 15p.

It’s BOD who decide if bid is hostile - guess which way they will turn.

Of course they’re quiet at the moment. They’re bricking it. They don’t have a relationship with NK. Bet there’s going to be some stressful conversations by the BOD to people who know someone who knows NK this weekend . . .ROFL

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

When NK writes “. . . Thomas Cook has more value and potential than what is being discussed recently, particularly with the skillset and complementary capabilities Anex Tour shall put forward. . .” Athat says one thing to me.

“I’m taking control of TCG and I’ll deal with the debt too.”

You don’t go to the market with a statement like that and then not back it up with an offer to take control, debt and all.

Anything else means destroying TCG.

Watching a fine, established brand fail with subsequent impact upon thousands of people’s livelihoods may well be what you want to witness to get your 30 pieces of silver, Illbetabuck, but the market seems to be saying “not on our watch” today.

Strongly advise that you close your short and cut your losses fella

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

Buy another 16% for what, £25m get minority’s shareholder. Get the other IIs on board (Fosun only hold 15% of the stock).

Block the refinance. Find the debt financing gap in the short term. Keep the IIs on board - they don’t lose their shirts.

Implement a cost restructuring programme. JV with Anex and subsequent cost reductions to address the debt pile.

Easy as. No need to burn the investment . . . Better for everyone.

Cheers

Red

@Illbetabuck

I read this as a takeover. As before why buy the stock for control rather than the debt unless you want full control as going down the financial restructuring route means that the stock is worthless.

It’s equivalent to burning money, is illogical and therefore your argument is flawed.

End of.

Red

@YinYang

Yada . . . Yada . . .

Debt of £1.2bn in relation to a £9bn revenue business being run **** poorly by management. . .

A decent cost saving exercise will see that gone in 2 years.

And I’m not talking jobs here - I’m taking synergies when negotiating with hotels when sort of a larger group and increased sales too through new distribution networks . . .

NK is fixed on buying TCG at a knock down bargain price.

You’ve seen the press.

If you’re palms are sweaty YinYang, do the sensible thing and close your short while you can before your
Margin call causes you to raid your piggy bank or go to your mom for an advance in your pocket money. . .

Cheers

Red