Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
On a slow day to promote some discussion:
TGA has said it is "appropriate to maintain a liquidity buffer of between R5bn and R6bn during and following
periods of stronger market conditions". There is a "cash position of approximately R8bn on 30 November 2021" which at current prices should be more than R9bn at year end.
By my estimates this leaves approx. R3.5bn for dividends/buybacks , equal to £1.20 per share, for the 6 month period till end Dec 2021 to be paid March/April 2022?
Then, by my estimates on current forward curve prices, at conservative 7mt export sales per 6 months:
Cash profits of $290m (Av RBCT price $130) for 1st half 2022.
As the R6bn buffer is already in place, what else can they do with this extra cash other than pay it out/buybacks??
So equal to £1.57 per share for the 6 month period till end June 2022 to be paid Sept/Oct 2022?
Cash profits of $195m (Av RBCT Price $113) for 2nd half 2022.
So equal to £1.08 per share for the 6 month period till end Dec 2022 to be paid March/April 2023?
Personally, I would like to see some buy backs, as well divis, to help strengthen the share price, but with £3.85 "returned" to share holders, R6bn still in the bank and a coal mining business attached, even allowing for a volatile commodity in an industry that will eventually shrink, why is the share price currently only worth the pay-outs earned to the end of next year? Especially as the last few days the sp has been dropping even as RBCT price is rising?
Anyone else care to share their own estimated figures or reasoning and/or correct mine?
Sadly RBCT is not exclusively used by TGA.
Much better when they have 4x 180,000+ DWT monsters in.
Lots of stock at the mines for when they do up the railings though, forward coal prices looking good out to 2026 and we made a load of cash in the 6 months to June 2021 at $90.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.047/centery:-28.816/zoom:15
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVF22/futures-prices
Statement Webcast now live:
https://services.themediaframe.com/links/thungela-10041288.html
Confirmed promotion back into the FSTE 250
https://www.ftserussell.com/press/ftse-uk-index-series-quarterly-review-december-2021
All this chatter and posts out numbering trades by more than 10:1 :-)
The information on the update is now also available on the drop down option "Investors Presentations" under "Investors" tab, though it wasn't there earlier, only on the slightly hidden Investors home page.
Gubby, thanks for the information confirming the update.
I too have contacted Ryan and can confirm he is very helpful.
However to me the website isn't vey logical atm, there is already information about the update on there, however from the home page, you need to click on the investors tab, not any of the drop down options under it. This takes you to the IR home page, which currently has details of the update and links to the conference call on it. Direct link to this page below.
https://www.thungela.com/investors
Much higher volume of posts than trades ;0
Friday's share price drop reversed already.
Rotterdam coal up $3 dollars so far today
Friday's coal price close is still higher than the price on Monday last week.
Weekly coal report:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/weekly-sa-coal-report-2021-11-29
I can't understand today's fall either?
Coal price is increasing again today and by the revised version of my conservative figures from 18 Nov 2021 10:11 now give:
(Based on only 7mt per 1/2 year and yesterday's prices)
Jan-June 2021 $65m reported
July-Dec 2021: $390m est.
Jan-Jun 2022: $334m est.
July-Dec 2022 $215m est.
and Mcap of only £461 ($616m)
Anyone want to post their own estimated figures? reasons for the disconnect with the share price? whether TGA should lock in a percentage of production on future prices? or have an EGM and vote to start buying back their own shares?
Big jump up on RBCT coal today, now @ $157, that's alot of extra profit each month, I'll have to rework my figures tomorrow.
Still busy as the quay too, with 4 massive bulks in atm.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVZ21/overview
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.049/centery:-28.814/zoom:14
5 Large bulks on the RBCT again. Seems to be always 4 to 5 on there taking up the whole quay recently, with good turnaround. It was usually 2 to 4 a short while ago. Hopefully this means the railings are improving, as there was a good stock at the mines waiting for transport, as reported in the RNS.
I may have to revisit my profit forecast post if railings are increasing and to also account for the rising coal price.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.052/centery:-28.817/zoom:15
In the interests of keeping some constructive discussion going on here, now all the pointless rampers/derampers fairy stories have quietened down, what are any holders estimates of profits?
I have:
For coal exports:
(I can't find separate detailed figures in the reports to calculate domestic sales from, as I think they are keeping the contacted prices confidential?)
- During first 6 months of 2021 R990m ($65m) profit was RNS'ed, with an average spot price of approx. $90. Published Average Export Sales Price (R/t) of R1105 after TGA discount to RBCT price)
- By my conservative calculations, for the 2nd half (7m tons only in case railings are even worse than expected) using transposition of figures from first half, with an average coal price in the current period of $140, based on past prices and current futures prices and allowing for 20% discount to RBCT spot, gives approx. $345m profit in 6 months.
- With same formula,1st 6 months of 2022, average future coal prices over that time currently $114, gives $200m profit.
So that's $610m (£452m) profit in 18 months, using conservative published figures, with a current MCap of only £404m.
Comparisons:
The capital markets day presentation shows the company was making lots of money in 2018 when Coal averaged approx. $95 (Published Average Export Sales Price (R/t) of R1060 after TGA discount to RBCT price) and long term coal price futures are now above this for at least the next 5 years and rising.
Finding a exact match company is difficult, but comparing companies that major in coal, like New Hope, Whitehaven and Exxaro our MCap ratios currently seem extremely low in comparison.
Therefore if the figures above are representative of the detailed 12 months accounts when published, there is plenty of scope for a big rerate.
Please DYOR, don't rely on my figures and let's see some others on here.
FTSE250 Ahoy?
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
Now back to 5 Bulk carriers at the RBCT. Average size 168000DWT. Looks like one about to leave, as pilot boat just gone alongside.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.052/centery:-28.817/zoom:15
When I had a glance last night, there were 5 bulk carriers at the coal terminal, which is the most I have seen. There are still 4 there this morning, 3 of which are the 180,000DWT giants. With that amount of coal going out of the port, the rail line must be supplying reasonable amounts atm.
Also, the first half 6 month report's average sale price of R1105 ($72) generating a tasty profit and current coals prices (which are rising this morning now the COP sham is over and China and India are still full steam ahead, while the west bankrupts itself) are still substantially higher, even accounting for our discount to market price, it's still looking good for the full year, with RNS guidance of 14.8Mt - 15.2Mt, an FOB of R830 and average market price of $140+ over the 2nd 6 months.
That'll do! (for me with many more years production ahead).
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVZ21/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUX21/overview
Got the June link wrong in the last post (this is the 2nd time I have posted this correction):
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVM21/overview.