The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I think you'll find it's a slam dunk, it was at 405 on the list on the 25th and has dropped over 7% since:
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
As I highlighted on 21/2, CPI will be demoted from the FTSE250 when the review is released today, this has been almost certain for some time and when confirmed, the pressure from the trackers who have already had to sell over the last month should dry up. If this is going to recover approaching results, the next day or two could be very telling.
New pics:
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1498981442310844423?s=20&t=x7gj8fg-ItNxA1iFUtavyA
Great information 0777brad, I had overlooked Russian coal exports to China and had assumed China would be friendly to Russia. Looks like the sanctions and Swift restrictions are having an affect at the moment. I have posted another article below.
These prices are great for TGA, though I don't see them staying around these levels for months as I believe in the long term they are unsustainable for poorer countries to keep paying and the market will seek cheaper alternative sources of energy.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-shunning-russian-coal-with-banks-nervous-over-sanctions-2022-03-02
Oops , I posted the link for April Newcastle, not March:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQH22/overview
"Oops, sorry, it does say API4, but different from mine of 310.65"
Hi Gubby, no problem, no offence taken, it was a different thread and I wasn't commenting on AP14 or your post anyway.
I am genuinely interested in comparing your prices sources though, as the ones I use linked below, show Newcastle March @ $313 and RBCT March at $300.75 for 01/03/22.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQJ22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH22/overview
Today's (01/03/23) RBCT prices up steeply again with futures above $200 out to March 2023 and $140 out to 2025.
I've posted my detailed calculations on here several times before and H2/full year results later this month should add some meat to those assumptions, but until then;
Published H1 2021 results showed $65m profit at an average $90/ton with an FOB of $55. H2 is going to be good, as notified in the trading update, but H1 2022 is going to be a cash machine if prices stay anywhere near these levels. I just hope the railings are still improving and it would be nice if the AAL sales team could hedge part of the future production at these levels.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH22/futures-prices
RBCT coal up over 13% today, at a new high, after Friday's pull back. Explains the share price rise today :-)
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH22/overview
Coal ( and gas) prices are all down slightly today, from yesterday's highs, but at these levels, with prices over $110 out to 2027 and lasted reported FOB of R782, that's a lot of profit, even with reduced railings.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQH22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUH22/overview
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188707&span=1
UK gas for March now at 330p, that's 54% up on yesterday's already high prices. "Normal" longer term price is closer to 40-50p, and with LNG now a global commodity, there will be a lot of pressure to start burning more coal in place of gas.
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188707&span=3
New tweet:
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1496842526040416258?s=20&t=u0EuyExQ8y9hyjIQ-k3e4g
Be great if this is effectively implemented, though TIA:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/south-africa-targets-cable-thieves-holding-economy-to-ransom-2022-02-24
On further news, one bulk leaving RBCT and another passing it on the way in to immediately replace is on the loading quay. A reasonable amount must be getting through on the rail line atm to keep filling them up.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.060/centery:-28.816/zoom:14
pop31, I get nothing out of this, just trying to offer helpful advice and information. Your last two answers on coal pricing and posting history, prove my point for me. This is investing, do not take things personally and leave your emotions at home. I have no intention of getting into a tit for tat spat and clogging this board with further unnecessary exchanges, I wish you the best in your endeavours and will not directly engage with you further.
pop31, as expected you are looking at yesterday's price for February delivery (which expires tomorrow "Expiration Date02/25/22 (1 day)")
You need to look at prices (which show on the right hand side of the screen), that they have been updated today (i.e. a time, not yesterday's date)
i.e. Header from your link:
"ICE Richard Bay Coal Feb '22 (LVG22)
204.00s +4.60 (+2.31%) 02/23/22 [ICE/EU]
ICE RICHARD BAY COAL PRICES for Wed, Feb 23rd, 2022" ----------NOTE the date is 23rd not 24th.
As you get closer to the end of the month, the contract becomes less relevant, because you are either going to have to take physical delivery of the coal (do you have a bulk booked into RBC before Monday?) or close it, through the clearing house. Therefore I would suggest that the following month's price becomes the most immediately relevant to the price you will get when you try to sell your coal onto the market.
With the utmost respect and sincerity (I am not trying to be one of the point scoring trolls that lurk on many of the boards on LSE) but if you do not genuinely already know and understand the above, I would suggest, investing in individual shares, is not for you, and/or to get stuck into some serious researching.
ATB RB
BP is down due to it's Russian exposure, including a 20% stake in Rosneft.
Angs is exposed, as while we are waiting for gas to flow, we have an outstanding contract to deliver gas on the hedge when it kicks in. If we have lots of gas flowing, no problem, if not, then we will have to buy gas from the market at (now even higher) market rates to fulfil the contracted obligation.
If lots of gas flows before July we are quids in, if it doesn't we are done.
pop31, do you have a link to show that today's price has only risen 2.3%? I suspect you are looking at yesterday's prices or now virtually irrelevant February prices again.
Currently April RBCT futures are up 16.85%, and others will follow suit when publicly available.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVJ22/overview
Newcastle prices (which are more relevant than Rotterdam) also up strongly today
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQH22/overview
Tweet
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1496452538626981895?s=20&t=xNh-prB75ysMS_SbGCoHcA
RBCT now at over $200/ton for March and almost certainly the Feb figure will be too when the price becomes publicly available later.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVG22/overview