The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
JPMorgan cuts ITV price target to 170 (192) pence - 'overweight'
https://www.ii.co.uk/news/london-broker-ratings-hsbc-takes-positive-stance-on-blue-chip-miners-al1647596227710939400
.....
24 invasion of Ukraine.
Australian thermal coal at Newcastle port was assessed by globalCOAL at $336.71 a tonne on Wednesday, and while this is down from recent highs above $400, it's still well above the $226.39 for the week prior to the Russian attack.
Even if prices for Australian and South African coal were to return to levels prior to the invasion of Ukraine, they are still too high for many utilities in India, which would be selling electricity at a loss.
This makes discounted Russian coal all the more attractive to India, but the problem is the logistics of actually paying for and transporting cargoes.
While Russia's energy exports aren't under Western sanctions, banks, insurers and shipping companies have been pulling back from dealing with Russia amid fears of reputational risk as well as the challenges of arranging payments.
India may struggle to secure as much Russian coal as it would want, while at the same time buyers in Europe will be trying to secure more cargoes from South Africa, while some Asian importers, such as Japan and South Korea, may be forced to buy more from Australia to replace Russian supplies.
This risks leaving India in a worse position of being unable to secure all the Russian coal it wants, and at the same time seeing competition increase for cargoes from some of its more usual suppliers.
Know who your friends are? How many millions in aid does the UK send India?
COLUMN – India looks to Russia to solve the energy crisis Moscow created: Russell
05:46
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 17 (Reuters) – Can Russia rescue India from the high energy prices caused by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine?
It may seem a bizarre twist of logic, but India appears to be aiming to ramp up imports of Russian crude oil and coal in a bid to lower the impact of sky-rocketing prices, largely caused by Russia's military action in the first place.
Russian energy exporters are offering cargoes at steep discounts, as traditional buyers in Europe and Asia shun Russian commodities in the wake of the Feb. 24 attack on Ukraine.
But India has so far stuck by its longstanding ally, refusing to condemn the invasion, and now New Delhi is looking to lower its crippling import bills by turning to Russian crude and coal.
Coal offers the best immediate substitute for India, given that Russian grades of thermal coal are similar to what India already imports from Australia and South Africa.
There is also an established trade in the polluting fuel, meaning Indian buyers already have relationships with Russian exporters.
But Russia's share of India's coal imports is relatively small, accounting for just 3.4% in 2021, with 5.54 million tonnes out of total imports of 164.8 million, according to data compiled by Refinitiv.
Australia, which ships both thermal and coking coal to India, was India's biggest supplier, with 64.91 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia with 47.42 million and South Africa with 23.01 million.
India would be seeking to replace Australian and South African cargoes with supplies from Russia, given the massive price surge in benchmark prices for these grades since the Feb......
Continued....
Weekly energy report:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/weekly-commodities-market-wrap-2022-03-14
Newcastle and Rotterdam holding around $350 at start today. Richards Bay TBC.
3 bulks on quay atm, possibly another docking soon.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.037/centery:-28.806/zoom:14
Last week cable theft stats:
https://www.transnet.net/Media/vCable%20Theft%20Stats/Weekly%20Cable%20Theft%20Stats%20-%2007%20March%20-%2013%20March%202022.pdf
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.037/centery:-28.806/zoom:14
Results soon and TGA printing $$$ at these prices.
Richard's Bay coal prices out early again today. Holding at around the $400 level atm, despite fall backs in NG and Oil from beginning of weeks highs Supporting the share price nicely till we wait for results, which I hope will have an update of H1 progress with railings and prices achieved.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVJ22/overview
I assume it's being held down by the uncertainty of the capital raise, associated with the purchase of William Hill. From today's results and investor presentation, it appears they can't (or don't want to) discuss details, as it's an ongoing negotiation. It was scheduled to conclude in Q2, so possibly another 3 months+ until concluded.
Broker ratings are a positive though, with good figures reiterated today.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/888/acquisition-of-william-hill-international-kylk5s5f9b050u9.html
2nd Batch of tanks delivered in early March as I suspected.
With the constant battles on here, to add something useful, has anyone run the figures for revenue with the current gas prices pre-hedge cutting in and prepared to share?
I find it tricky to correlate all the different units (days/months/therms/cf/cm etc) across with a high degree of certainty (so I have used published figures to transpose a answer) but sticking my neck out, does this look right?;
Using figures from page 49 of the 26 October 2021 "Angus Energy – Saltfleetby Reserves Valuation Report"
The first line, Jul 22, shows a volume of 3.34MMscf/d and a p/T of 41.4p has a value of £0.45m a month.
Current price for Q2 gas is 10 times this, so now £4.5m a month.
Hedged volume (used in above calc) is only 3.34 and gas flow predictions up to 10MMscf/d (with sidetrack?) would give £13.5m a month (50% attributable to ANGS).
I know this company is now a binary bet on whether enough gas flows before the hedge kicks in, but would anyone like to comment with their own figures?
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
I believe the share price drop today is because it has risen strongly over the last month in unison with the huge rise in coal prices and it appears coal prices (Newcastle showing as down and Natural gas as well) are softening today, with a strong backwardation curve in futures prices. It looks similar to the high in October and subsequent fall back. Hopefully when the results come out soon, it will confirm the profitability profile of this company and cause a re-rate. I don't believe the $400+ coal is sustainable, but in my estimates, TGA would still make huge profits in the $150 range if we keep getting plenty of coal to RBCT.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQJ22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH22/futures-prices
Not unexpected theft figures below, due to the regular Transnet updates on cable theft, but worrying that the thieves in this article took the risk to offer a bribe and presumably must have suspected that there was a reasonable chance it would be accepted.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-records-highest-ever-theft-of-copper-cable-jmpd-arrests-two-suspects-2022-03-08
Richards Bay coal up 10% today to $460. Crazy times.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH22/overview
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:6286528/zoom:10
I noticed late last week on Marine Traffic that SOA was showing departed PT HOR AND heading to PT HOR and thought that it must be a mistake, as I only get the free version of MT and it doesn't update the route when ships are out of range of AIS land stations.
Unfortunately looking on there now, SOA has just pasted the Azores and is heading to Southampton. Wish I had realised this before my Friday top up at 230 :-(
Newcastle April coal up sharply again this morning. 487.50 +80.45 (+19.76%) 02:31 CT
I expect RB And Rotterdam will follow the trend when prices are out later:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQJ22/overview
UK April gas prices also up 60% today, at time of writing, to unprecedented levels:
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253318&span=3
Today's RBCT April price now updated, back up 21% to $400:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVJ22/overview
Jczert,
FWIW I believe this could go 50% higher, (with a good future dividend/buybacks), IF the results later this month are favourable, the coal price holds up around $150 long term and railings to the port are sorted. A down turn in any of these will affect this proportionally. The current price rise has been fuelled by the unprecedented coal price rise due to the Ukraine situation.
Just factor in the share price was half the current level as recently as January and 18 months ago coal was $55 a ton and at that level, with coal being out of favour with the green brigade, the company would arguable have very little value. I don't see this happening in the current global climate, but each of us need to place our chips accordingly.
Best of luck and don't trust any posts on a board including mine :-)
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVQ20/overview
Two articles I found interesting:
2nd part of this article the most relevant part to TGA and future coal prices:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/qrc-urges-new-acland-approval-as-coal-prices-soar-2022-03-03
Australia helping out:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/australia-aids-allies-seeking-to-replace-russian-coal-2022-03-03
If this boycott of Russian coal lasts, it's going to support the coal price for some time, as no one is going to be able to suddenly open new mines. Hopefully the SA government and Transnet can be encouraged and incentivised to sort out the railings issues, as this is more than just about money now, with the energy security of European nations key in bring even more pressure onto the Russian regime.
Looks like these should be onsite early March.
With gas price crazy high, they need to get the gas out asap. Maybe they could give the contractors a few shares to help things along?
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1499350559106736132?s=20&t=Q2Ma9Bv-deIm7gertA4_XA
RBCT coal price available nice and early today, it's dropped slightly but still at a crazy high $400 atm. Prices of Newcastle, Rotterdam and Natural gas all dropped off of earlier highs, along with TGA share price.
With coal still extremely high, the drop from the opening rise, looks looks oversold to me and hoping for a recovery into the afternoon.
Does anyone know a way to short the coal price, to use as a hedge against the TGA share price? Plenty of options for oil or gas but I'm unaware of anything for coal through the accounts I use.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVJ22/overview
Today's currently available prices for Newcastle and Rotterdam both up a bit atm. UK gas up, Brent up to the highest level in years, looks like RBCT price will hold close to, or increase slightly on yesterday's massive rise.
I still don't think these sky high coal prices are sustainable in the long term though, but it's doing wonders for the share price until the 1st set of full year results confirm what a money making machine this is. At $90 it was making good money and if the coal price could stabilise in the mid $100s, this could produce great returns for a good few years.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQK22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUJ22/overview
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253318&span=1
gubby, don't make this personal, if you are not interested in my posts or find the information I provide boring, please filter me.
I have not accused you of making a mistake, quiet the opposite, it appears you skimmed over my Tuesday 22:42 post and jumped to a conclusion, when I was not replying to you and had not even read your previous post, as I was replying on a different thread with the same title. (Click on the reply button on the post and you will see the thread below the reply box, showing all previous posts)
There are many sources on information out there, which are often conflicting and on a board like this, we can help one another with the sources we find. I have no interest in points scoring, only gaining the best information, unfortunately many of the other boards here are filled with trolls, who will try and mislead, or people who post information that is out of date either through ignorance or misunderstanding, this is why I usually provide links to verify any information I post and will happily accept constructive criticism. A good example, is when last year there was a panic about the fire at RIchards Bay bulk terminal, on the opposite side of the harbour and there were claims this was the coal terminal, I corrected this by providing links to maps, pictures and news articles, showing where the fire really was and the coal terminal was unaffected.
As another poster has already pointed out, the marine traffic information is one of the limited sources of information to indicate how much coal is getting through on Transnet. This information and the cable theft information was bought to the board by me, I expect nothing in return, other than to not receive personal attacks. Thungela can only make money if its coal can get onto ships and be sold, this point was made clear in the last update when we were affected by railing constraints as the coal price spiked in October.
As to personas and Brad? I have one profile, no agenda and I'm not here to make friends, just money.
ATB, I will not be engaging with you further.