Member Info for RedbullRJ

A real shame the buyback resolution wasn't voted through, at the current share price the cash could be put to good use and avoid the withholding tax on the divis.

Newboots, hope you got a good price on the top up, recovering nicely now.

Newboots, I agree with your calculations and similar to my Thursday figures. Hopefully there will be some positive explanation of the discrepancy in the investor call shortly.

"a net cash position of approximately R15.3 billion" Figure will include the R6B "liquidity buffer" built up in 2021.

http://newsfile.refinitiv.com/getnewsfile/v1/story?guid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20220613:nRSM5424Oa&default-theme=true

With the pre close statement due on Monday, I thought I would share my rough estimates of possible 2022 dividends/excess cash before the update, though the released information may only include basic figures with full divi details coming when full results published.

2021 accounts: Coal price realised 12 months $104/t at discount of 16% giving av RBCT price of $119.5, export equity sales 13.9Mt.

1st 6 months 2022 RBCT av approx $260t, TGA discount ?
2nd 6 months 2022 RBCT av approx $267 " "
Est tonnage railed 1st 6 months 2022 7mt?
2021 R6B held back as liquidity buffer, no need to hold back more? (= to approx £2.30/share)
2021 Divi paid 91.5p pre withholding tax.

With the option of buying back shares unfortunately voted down at the AGM, my estimate is in the £5 - 6 pretax range for excess cash/interim divi for H1, followed by the same again for H2/full year, barring exceptional items/changes in coal price/ railings issues/ acquisitions?/ diversification? etc.

Anyone else have any estimates, corrections or ideas of what they may decide to do with the excess cash?

Link to sign in or listen to AGM as a guest:
https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/Attendee?Code=MVH664F&Invitation=&Locale=en

I suspect it's the rail strike threat, though I'm surprised that the drop is all this morning if that is the case, as it's been a possibility for a while.

Tweet:
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1528728427347558400?s=20&t=pFlmGxYWrHORKzCWpuLP5g

I have been monitoring some of the bulks leaving the RBCT coal dock recently and some are making the long trip round the Cape to Europe.

Xiao May, left RBCT on 16th March, arrived off CIVITAVECCHIA in Italy yesterday
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:6536274/mmsi:636019499/imo:9891878/vessel:XIAO_MAY

Rainbow N, left RBCT on 21st March, en route to PLOCE in Croatia
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:716136/mmsi:538006420/imo:9488803/vessel:RAINBOW_N

Bahri Grain, left RBCT on 5th May, currently en route to Italy
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:475394/mmsi:403517000/imo:9660528/vessel:BAHRI_GRAIN

There may be many more, as I only see a few of the departures.
Gone very quite on here re Withholding tax, any successes?

Coal back to April highs in Rotterdam and Newcastle today and 2, 3, 4 year + prices considerably higher than then.
Share price is still lower than then, even accounting for the ex-dividend and 3+ more weeks of high profit sales in the bank @ current profit £40+ M/week, 29p+/share/week?

Anyone have any success with the withholding tax reclaim?

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUK22/overview

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQM22/overview

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVM22/futures-prices

Drop is because it's ex-dividend today on LSE, its up on JSE.

If it can get into the mid 40's, it will be back in the FTSE250 and will fly.

Some miners are now using trucks!:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/south-african-coal-miners-turn-to-trucks-as-rail-service-deteriorates-2022-05-03

No, not yet and dates are different in UK and SA.
From TGA RNS:

The salient dates pertaining to the cash dividend are as follows:
JSE
LSE

Last day for trading to qualify and participate in the
dividend
Tuesday, 3 May 2022
Wednesday, 4 May 2022

Trading ex-dividend commences
Wednesday 4 May 2022
Thursday, 5 May 2022

Record date
Friday, 6 May 2022
Friday, 6 May 2022

Payment date to shareholders
Monday, 9 May 2022
Monday, 23 May 2022

and also FYI:
No transfers of shareholdings to and from South Africa or the United Kingdom will be permitted
between Tuesday, 3 May 2022 and Friday, 6 May 2022 (both dates inclusive). Share certificates
may not be dematerialised or rematerialised between Wednesday, 4 May 2022 and Friday, 6
May 2022, both dates inclusive.

Mining Weekly article:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/esg-minded-investors-pile-into-coal-stock-sparking-1-000-rally-2022-04-26

Also RBCT has had 4 ships at the loading quay all the time recently, as soon as one leaves another is along side within a few hours, so the coal going on to them must be getting through on the railway.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.051/centery:-28.812/zoom:15

And coal is going back up again today:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUK22/overview

Possible cause for the drop today:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-confirms-it-will-build-extra-coal-mine-capacity-this-year-2022-04-21

I've always believed that the high coal prices are unsustainable ((if they were we would be at £40+), the sad situation in Ukraine has helped raise them back to levels I didn't think were possible a couple of months ago, however if China does mange to raise its production, it will take time and they currently still have an expanding demand. So with the current sky high prices, c.£200m profit a month and new demand from those boycotting Russia, I am still a confident holder and await an even bigger dividend/buyback? later this year.

Biggest ship I can remember docking at RBCT today, 203200 DWT and good to see the port busy over the last few days after the rains:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:754000/mmsi:636013318/imo:9336957/vessel:OCEAN_PROMETHEUS

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.051/centery:-28.816/zoom:15

That's great news and very helpful info Tiger. By coincidence I secure messaged HL earlier today to ask them to claim back the 10%, and hopefully with your trail blazing, they should sort it with out being difficult :-)

Another "interesting" trade:
19-Apr-22 09:39:36 1,327.00 1,764,803 Unknown* 1,287.00 1,290.00 23m O

With the coal price where it is, the Rotterdam Coal price up again this morning, and the situation with Russia unlikely to return to normal anytime soon, I'm still holding tenaciously, despite all these swings in the share price.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUK22/overview

RBCT had been a bit quiet over the last couple of days, presumably due to the weather, all seems ok now as currently 4 bulks on the loading quay:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.044/centery:-28.818/zoom:15

Rotterdam and Newcastle now both back over $300 and looks like RBCT will be showing the same later (if it increases by a similar % when today's price is available):

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUJ22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQJ22/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVJ22/overview

and no sign of the pressures that are keeping prices high waning atm:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/european-coal-reaches-one-month-high-as-russia-supply-curbs-bite-2022-04-12

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/india-to-face-more-power-cuts-due-to-coal-shortage-soaring-demand-2022-04-12