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Happy days, UK NG futures back above £6 for Jan and Feb
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices
Flow figure for yesterday:
20/09/2022 01:00:00 20/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2100 21/09/2022 12:01:00 L
20/09/2022 01:00:00 20/09/2022 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1722222.0000 21/09/2022 12:01:00 L
20/09/2022 01:00:00 20/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1507 21/09/2022 12:01:00 L
RBCT busy again after two quiet weeks from my observations.
Double the tonnage has berthed at the coal quay since Monday this week compared to last and still a day to go.
Currently 5 x big 110k+ DWT bulks docked atm.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.051/centery:-28.818/zoom:15
Short dated futures prices down, longer dated holding up better, so figures earlier in this thread should still be in the ball park collectively, so I'm happy to keep holding for the big divis. On hols atm so, not updating them for now.
Next week could get interesting though, with a shortened LSE trading week and the share going ex-divi on consecutive days on SA and LSE, could be some big swings.
GLALTH
Short term coal futures seem to be off the recent spectacular highs, but more important for me is that the futures curve is flatter and doesn't drop off as sharply as is did. e.g. a month ago futures for 2025/27/27 were just above $200, now all holding in $250 - $300 zone ($270 ish as of yesterday). To me that should help support the share price, as the market thinks the coal price isn't going to drop substantially anytime soon and should support good divi pay outs for the foreseeable future:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVV22/futures-prices
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVF27/overview
Monday's figure released at same time?, back to a better level then. Would be nice to see a step up, rather than down, still early days though and UK gas prices heading back up since yesterday
12/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0964 14/09/2022 08:30:00 L
13/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0886 14/09/2022 12:01:00
Updated @12/09/2022 12:01:01
11/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0537 12/09/2022 12:01:01 L
and previous update for those that missed it:
10/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby , D+2 0.1229 12/09/2022 10:00:00
The site is confusing and I think that is the flow for the 8th, which was released on the 10th.
I think this is the slightly higher flow for the 9th, also released on the 10th:
09/09/2022 01:00:00 09/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0994 10/09/2022 15:01:01 L
I use the header on the 2nd column "Applicable for" to sort them in what i think is the correct order, as some day's figures seem to get repeated for reasons unknown to me.
If anyone thinks otherwise please correct me.
If you want to ty an unhedged strategy, look at the share charts the last time the we went ex-divi. It did not react predictably and only dropped back to the "correct level" the next day, after a morning drop, rise back and drop late afternoon on the day. Anyone trying this would have made or lost just on the luck of timing
Also, for a reason unknown to me, SA ex-divi dates are different to LSE and may have caused confusion among those not closely flowing both prices and ex-divi dates.
IMO, in the UK we need a fairer system where shares can be held in own name easily and efficiently, to allow us to simply reclaim 10% of the withholding tax and be contactable by companies and easily participate in voting, rights issues etc. Sharesoc have covered this issue in the past.
Not quite a new high looks like an intraday spike on 07/03/2022 was slightly higher :-0
Still very happy with m TGA holding, less so with my predicted energy bill on the Octopus Crystal ball mode balance forecast, fortunately one more than covers the other.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQJ22/interactive-chart
Newcastle up 5% this morning to what I think may be a new high, suspect RBC and Rotterdam will follow when prices available
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQV22/overview
Tedmak, figures based on extrapolation from Q1 2022 figures and adjusted for reduced losses on smaller derivative positions and increased forward curve on coal futures. Slightly more detail of my earlier figures in the original 16th August post on this thread. With so many variables, these are only educated guestimates. If you look at Q2 2021 results and see how much money was made then with lower coal prices and bearing in mind the first divi wasn't huge because R6B was kept back as a cushion, ducks to appear to line up, happy to get any feedback or see others estimates :-)
Further to my previous post in this thread, I have current estimated RBCT futures prices (01/09/22) and fag packet gross divi calcs (allows for some improvement with railings and no derivate losses) as:
2022 H2 $341 £5.00
2023 H1 $303 £4.70
2023 H2 $286 £4.70
2024 FY $274 £8.80
2025 FY $264 £8.40
2026 FY $263 £8.30
2027 FY $264 £8.40
Barring a substantial drop in coal futures, I'm still holding, despite TGA now being an oversized proportion of my portfolio. I just wish they could get the buyback voted through, to avoid the risks and complexity of reducing the 20% withholding tax.
Also happily holding atm. RBCT futures prices up today: near term close to recent highs, long term at new highs and a strong dollar means even more £s for those $s
Port has been a bit slow early this week though, especially compared to the stamped last week. Hoping the China spares deal will help provide a more reliable service some time soon.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVU26/overview
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVU22/futures-prices
At least 30 days until they strike, so hopefully will all be sorted before it creates a problem:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-and-unions-declare-wage-deadlock-strike-looms-2022-08-26
RBCT still really busy, again hoping it's not just because of the NE region maintenance shutdown creating extra loco availability over the last 10 days and that the increase in throughput will continue in the following weeks.
Oooh, what a big one:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:4108385/mmsi:538006760/imo:9757589/vessel:SOLAR_LEGEND
One in one out at RBCT today, with 4 new arrivals. Busiest week for a while and still 3 days to go! Let's hope it's not a blip and TFR are improving.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.046/centery:-28.816/zoom:15
It's a shame the share price is down today atm, hopefully tick back up later.
UK and European gas futures both up sharply again.
Coal prices seem to be holding, )hopefully they'll be up when more data available?)
Traffic at RBCT finally seems to be picking up, with more tonnage mooring at the coal quay in the 4 days since Monday, than in the preceding 7 day period, or almost in any other week since the TFR July maintenance shutdown.
I hope it does make the FTSE100 as that would put the share price around 800p and be a wonderful return.
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php