Member Info for RedbullRJ

Not quite a new high looks like an intraday spike on 07/03/2022 was slightly higher :-0
Still very happy with m TGA holding, less so with my predicted energy bill on the Octopus Crystal ball mode balance forecast, fortunately one more than covers the other.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQJ22/interactive-chart

Newcastle up 5% this morning to what I think may be a new high, suspect RBC and Rotterdam will follow when prices available

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQV22/overview

Tedmak, figures based on extrapolation from Q1 2022 figures and adjusted for reduced losses on smaller derivative positions and increased forward curve on coal futures. Slightly more detail of my earlier figures in the original 16th August post on this thread. With so many variables, these are only educated guestimates. If you look at Q2 2021 results and see how much money was made then with lower coal prices and bearing in mind the first divi wasn't huge because R6B was kept back as a cushion, ducks to appear to line up, happy to get any feedback or see others estimates :-)

Further to my previous post in this thread, I have current estimated RBCT futures prices (01/09/22) and fag packet gross divi calcs (allows for some improvement with railings and no derivate losses) as:

2022 H2 $341 £5.00
2023 H1 $303 £4.70
2023 H2 $286 £4.70
2024 FY $274 £8.80
2025 FY $264 £8.40
2026 FY $263 £8.30
2027 FY $264 £8.40

Barring a substantial drop in coal futures, I'm still holding, despite TGA now being an oversized proportion of my portfolio. I just wish they could get the buyback voted through, to avoid the risks and complexity of reducing the 20% withholding tax.

Also happily holding atm. RBCT futures prices up today: near term close to recent highs, long term at new highs and a strong dollar means even more £s for those $s
Port has been a bit slow early this week though, especially compared to the stamped last week. Hoping the China spares deal will help provide a more reliable service some time soon.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVU26/overview

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVU22/futures-prices

At least 30 days until they strike, so hopefully will all be sorted before it creates a problem:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-and-unions-declare-wage-deadlock-strike-looms-2022-08-26

RBCT still really busy, again hoping it's not just because of the NE region maintenance shutdown creating extra loco availability over the last 10 days and that the increase in throughput will continue in the following weeks.

Oooh, what a big one:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:4108385/mmsi:538006760/imo:9757589/vessel:SOLAR_LEGEND

One in one out at RBCT today, with 4 new arrivals. Busiest week for a while and still 3 days to go! Let's hope it's not a blip and TFR are improving.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.046/centery:-28.816/zoom:15

It's a shame the share price is down today atm, hopefully tick back up later.

UK and European gas futures both up sharply again.
Coal prices seem to be holding, )hopefully they'll be up when more data available?)
Traffic at RBCT finally seems to be picking up, with more tonnage mooring at the coal quay in the 4 days since Monday, than in the preceding 7 day period, or almost in any other week since the TFR July maintenance shutdown.

I hope it does make the FTSE100 as that would put the share price around 800p and be a wonderful return.

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Hi Brad

Are you counting the two "red ships" at the tank terminal, as I can only see 5 on the coal quay atm?

Today's RBCT prices now available, up another 3+% and stays over $250 to at least December 2027.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVU22/futures-prices

UK gas up another 10+% today to insane levels. Just keep an eye on your energy bills, as you are going to need the massive profits to pay them this winter and beyond. A lot of people are going to suffer this winter onwards, unless a magic solution arises. I can hopefully use some of this good luck to pay it forward. The UK generates more electric from gas than anything else and the price is staying high for years on the futures markets. A sensible level is 50p/therm and it's at 144p/therm on the futures market to beyond March 2029!
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NFV22/futures-prices

On the downside for TGA holders, my tonnage figures from RBCT departures haven't shown much in the way of improvement since the July Transnet maintenance shutdown, hope it improves soon.

GLALTH

Thanks both

Richt9999 and crawshaw, thank you for the information.

If you don't mind me asking, what are the costs involved? As when I have found a broker who will allow shares in own name, it has been via a CREST personal membership and an expensive process. Also, is my assumption that they can not be held inside an ISA or SIPP correct? thereby loosing the valuable protection from UK taxes?

Without my ISA wrapper my tax liability on TGA would be horrendous :-)

Presuming you aren't a company owning more than 10% of TGA, you may be able to reduce the rate to 10% if you hold the shares in your own name (rare) not in a nominee account (common). AFAIK, no one has managed to get their broker to allow them to claim the tax back for them, if someone has please can they share the details with the board.

It may be possible to use a spread bet long to avoid all withholding tax, but I can't be certain it would work and it could be very risky.

From the Divi declaration:
Non-South African tax resident shareholders will be paid the dividend subject to 20%
withholding tax for shareholders. Certain non-South African tax resident shareholders
may however be entitled to a reduced rate of dividends tax due to the provisions of an
applicable tax treaty. In the case of UK-resident shareholders, for example, the DTA
allows for

(i) a reduced rate of 5% if the shareholder is a company that holds at least
10% of the capital of Thungela, and

(ii) .a reduced rate of 10% in all other cases

More good Transnet news?

In addition to this morning's RNS, hopefully this court action will go our way and help improve loco availability:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-seeks-court-order-compelling-crrc-to-release-spares-for-120-idle-locomotives-2022-08-17

Needs to go to:

enquiries@beis.gov.uk

and

info@angusenergy.co.uk

Already sent mine

Figures also don't account for today's probable rise in RBC: +$5 -10/t ??

Some basic quick estimates from yesterday's figures, ignoring many other variables, other than derivates and coal price. Please feel free to correct or provide your own interpretations, as I have only done these quickly and not double checked the maths:

1st Half 2022 reported:
R9.6B profit
£3.00 divi
Realised price $240/t (Market $276 -13%)
-R3.5B in derivative losses.

2022 H2 forecast?
Coal futures H2 2022 approx. $318 +15% to H1
only 510kt of derivates at $198/t in H2 2022 (current loss R0.69B?) -80% to H1
Profit R15B?
Divi £4.60?

2023 H1 forecast?
Coal futures H1 2023 approx. $280 +1.5% to H1 2022
only 105kt of derivates at $211/t in H1 2023 (current loss R0.12B?) -97% to H1 2022
Profit R13.2B?
Divi £4.00?

2023 H2
Coal futures $246

2024 H1
Coal futures $231
etc
etc
$£$£$

Every little helps I guess:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-security-guards-to-be-made-peace-officers-2022-08-16

Newcastle up nicely today (with RBCT to follow?), hopefully it'll prevent the usual fall back from this morning's rise
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQU22/overview

Correct and I am well aware some is used in SA, but it makes insignificant profit, which is why I was very specific with my wording that "almost all that profit"