George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Today's RBCT prices now available, up another 3+% and stays over $250 to at least December 2027.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVU22/futures-prices
UK gas up another 10+% today to insane levels. Just keep an eye on your energy bills, as you are going to need the massive profits to pay them this winter and beyond. A lot of people are going to suffer this winter onwards, unless a magic solution arises. I can hopefully use some of this good luck to pay it forward. The UK generates more electric from gas than anything else and the price is staying high for years on the futures markets. A sensible level is 50p/therm and it's at 144p/therm on the futures market to beyond March 2029!
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NFV22/futures-prices
On the downside for TGA holders, my tonnage figures from RBCT departures haven't shown much in the way of improvement since the July Transnet maintenance shutdown, hope it improves soon.
GLALTH
Richt9999 and crawshaw, thank you for the information.
If you don't mind me asking, what are the costs involved? As when I have found a broker who will allow shares in own name, it has been via a CREST personal membership and an expensive process. Also, is my assumption that they can not be held inside an ISA or SIPP correct? thereby loosing the valuable protection from UK taxes?
Without my ISA wrapper my tax liability on TGA would be horrendous :-)
Presuming you aren't a company owning more than 10% of TGA, you may be able to reduce the rate to 10% if you hold the shares in your own name (rare) not in a nominee account (common). AFAIK, no one has managed to get their broker to allow them to claim the tax back for them, if someone has please can they share the details with the board.
It may be possible to use a spread bet long to avoid all withholding tax, but I can't be certain it would work and it could be very risky.
From the Divi declaration:
Non-South African tax resident shareholders will be paid the dividend subject to 20%
withholding tax for shareholders. Certain non-South African tax resident shareholders
may however be entitled to a reduced rate of dividends tax due to the provisions of an
applicable tax treaty. In the case of UK-resident shareholders, for example, the DTA
allows for
(i) a reduced rate of 5% if the shareholder is a company that holds at least
10% of the capital of Thungela, and
(ii) .a reduced rate of 10% in all other cases
More good Transnet news?
In addition to this morning's RNS, hopefully this court action will go our way and help improve loco availability:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-seeks-court-order-compelling-crrc-to-release-spares-for-120-idle-locomotives-2022-08-17
Some basic quick estimates from yesterday's figures, ignoring many other variables, other than derivates and coal price. Please feel free to correct or provide your own interpretations, as I have only done these quickly and not double checked the maths:
1st Half 2022 reported:
R9.6B profit
£3.00 divi
Realised price $240/t (Market $276 -13%)
-R3.5B in derivative losses.
2022 H2 forecast?
Coal futures H2 2022 approx. $318 +15% to H1
only 510kt of derivates at $198/t in H2 2022 (current loss R0.69B?) -80% to H1
Profit R15B?
Divi £4.60?
2023 H1 forecast?
Coal futures H1 2023 approx. $280 +1.5% to H1 2022
only 105kt of derivates at $211/t in H1 2023 (current loss R0.12B?) -97% to H1 2022
Profit R13.2B?
Divi £4.00?
2023 H2
Coal futures $246
2024 H1
Coal futures $231
etc
etc
$£$£$
Every little helps I guess:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/transnet-security-guards-to-be-made-peace-officers-2022-08-16
Newcastle up nicely today (with RBCT to follow?), hopefully it'll prevent the usual fall back from this morning's rise
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQU22/overview
Link to ftv DT article mentioned by Daverec:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/coal-miner-dubbed-worthless-in-net-zero-world-reports-3-000pc-increase-in-profits/ar-AA10Gcfs?ocid=spartanntp&cvid=ef97521867594c43ae10a8c64eb71ca7
Unfortunately, due today's poor standards of journalism, whoever wrote this doesn't have a clue, stating "Thungela Resources, which mines coal for power stations in South Africa, posted profits of 9.6bn ZAR" completely missing the point that almost all that profit is generating by the export sales through RBCT. It may still send a few newbies this way, just hope they don't clog up the board with the same rubbish that appears after previous releases of good news.
Presentation slides available already.
https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/thungela_files/thungela220815.pdf
Webcast starts in 4 minutes:
https://themediaframe.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=OAqZ7UKQ
Prices up nicely today, possibly helped by today's inflation figures in USA.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUX22/overview
Medium/longer term prices, which I think are key to value here are also predicted to stay higher for longer:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/coals-skyrocketing-prices-could-last-years-on-russia-disruption-2022-08-10
Sadly though movements at RBCT have been a bit slow this week, I hope they can get Transnet sorted soon.
While waiting for the price to hopefully start its next "up" on the sawtooth, here is an interesting presentation on RBCT:
https://rbct.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-Presentation-Final-Media-Brief-2.pdf
Tweet :
https://twitter.com/ContangoPlc/status/1552652637509627906?s=20&t=GlvhhGY1p1NsHr9v4BFWhw
Eco fanatics would rather continue bashing Drax and the UK, which has made some of the biggest changes in reducing emissions, while impoverishing large swaths of this country's population in the process, than take action against the real elephant in the room; that China burns more than half of all the coal consumed in the world and that is constantly increasing, now over 12 million tons a day, and we then buy their cheap product made with cheap dirty energy!! Makes you think where a lot of these groups get their money from and what the real objective of their paymasters is??