The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
This is as close as I can find to any useful info on railings. Anyone got anything better? Higher coal prices are great but we need to get lots of product to RBCT
https://www.transnet.net/Media/Pages/Cable-Theft-Stats.aspx
Coal supply to remain tight?:
https://twitter.com/PlattsCoal/status/1482925222286475264?s=20
https://twitter.com/PlattsOil/status/1482924712795725830?s=20
I already asked Ryan at IR, as there was a couple of days with no ships showing as docked at RBCT. I got a very nice reply when he returned from the Christmas/NY break, but understandably no price sensitive information either way.
Hi CAlderson1, welcome to the conversation. I think (and hope) your figures are closer to the mark. With the R5-6B buffer being more than reached already, that would allow 100% of future post tax profits to be distributed (or used for acquisitions/expansion etc??) I agree with your calcs (GBP/ZAR 21 and 1.36m shares) each R1B post tax profits = approx. £47.5m/ £0.35 divi. With the CT tax payments, my understanding is they would build the buffer after paying the tax, unless they have some clever schemes to defer it. Happy to be corrected if someone has a better understanding.
With that in mind and Coal futures currently remaining well above long term trends, will they err on the lower side of the R5-6B buffer for FY 2021 and they can then increase it, to the maximum, with the ongoing cash generation of the H1 2022 and use some of the FY 2021 profit to buy back under priced shares/ pay out a more consistent divi?
I think the biggest issue atm is the Transnet railings, high coal prices and the new beneficiation plant won't help, unless we can get the product to RBCT. Hopefully the railings issue isn't the reason the share price is falling, while coal is still rising, as has been mention again today. I can't find out if railings are better or worse atm, through local press etc. and RBCT ship movements, on Marine Traffic, seem to be steady rather than spectacular.
Any SA train spotters out there in KwaZulu-Natal?? :)
Coal price rising, share price dropping?
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVG22/interactive-chart
and Indonesia ban not yet lifted:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/indonesia-says-coal-ban-remains-even-as-dozens-of-ships-depart
Anyone have any news on Transnet's performance on getting more of the coal to RBCT?
Articles below are good news but only a tiny percentage of what is going missing. It's not exactly rocket science for the scrap yards to work out where the rails have come from, so about time they went after them too?
https://www.news24.com/witness/news/kzn/seven-arrested-for-stealing-transnet-railway-tracks-in-kzn-20220112
https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/industrial/r1-million-in-stolen-transnet-railway-tracks-recovered-seven-arrested-20220112
With links separated :)
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Indonesia-relaxes-export-ban-to-allow-37-coal-vessels-to-depart
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/indonesia-relaxes-export-ban-to-allow-37-coal-vessels-to-depart.html
Ban still in place with apparently no new ships being loaded yet? :
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Indonesia-relaxes-export-ban-to-allow-37-coal-vessels-to-departhttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/indonesia-relaxes-export-ban-to-allow-37-coal-vessels-to-depart.html
Indonesian coal still not moving?
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/coal-vessels-await-clearance-to-leave-as-indonesia-mulls-ease-of-export-ban-2022-01-12
Ban loosening:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-hopes-decide-coal-export-resumption-coming-days-minister-2022-01-10/
More piling:
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1480497144595288067?s=20
Looking busier now at the RBCT, 2 more bulks arrived this morning for a total of 4 loading and coal price up nicely. Results day can't come soon enough :-)
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.039/centery:-28.816/zoom:15
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVG22/overview
Good news for TGA, looks like the export ban is till in place which should hold coal prices up atm:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-holds-talks-with-industry-coal-distribution-problems-export-ban-2022-01-09/
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/1/10/philippines-urges-indonesia-to-lift-coal-export-ban
Just wish RBCT was a bit busier to take maximum advantage of it:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.045/centery:-28.820/zoom:14
FYI Tjay, your link gives the price for Newcastle (Australian) coal, TGA's exports go out of RBCT, whose price is also going back up nicely atm:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVF22/overview
Hopefully SA may take some action on these recommendation, but TIA:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/minerals-council-backs-state-capture-commissions-recommendations-2022-01-06
Good to see the share price following the coal price up and the longer Indonesia maintains the ban, the higher they will go:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-coal-miners-seek-exemptions-export-ban-costs-grow-2022-01-06/
France burning more coal:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/energy-starved-france-mulls-burning-more-coal-to-keep-lights-on-2022-01-05
Metal theft or similar vandalism is never justified. The cost for a skilled workforce to replace the damaged infrastructure is astronomical in relation to the money obtained by selling the scrap. I have had to personally deal with the consequences of this as a victim, tax payer and repairer of said damage. Just last week someone has done £1k+ of damage to a friends car to steal £20 of petrol.
This huge loss of productivity could instead be benefiting society by producing something new (like a school or hospital). If you genuinely believe the party being damaged can easily afford it or similar justification (say Transnet in SA or the CofE in UK, with lead church roofing theft etc etc) then a fair and democratic means of redistribution/extracting money should be sought, that does not result in unnecessary destruction of value, that could otherwise be put to good use.
Goldstinger, if you use Marine traffic and switch to satellite view, the coal terminal on the South side of the port is obvious. The bit on the corner at the end is for tankers loading from the tank terminal. You can zoom in and see good details, including the conveyors and loaders.
You can also get basic info of dimensions, DWT, vessel type, previous port etc. from the free version of Marine Traffic. No TGA coal is loaded on the North side of the port afaik (The North side is where the conveyor fires were earlier in the year, that some tried to insinuate where an issue, despite being miles from the coal terminal). The south side coal terminal is also used by other miners, so not all coal from there is TGA.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.049/centery:-28.808/zoom:14
More info and pics of RBCT here:
https://rbct.co.za/
Good point re tax.
I'll recalculate when they when they publish the full year's. Should be able to get a better picture of the tax take with the figures from a fully profitable year. Also can then add in any money generated by the domestic sales and hopefully that may balance out.