Coal prices were $120 now $13118 Nov 2021 10:11
In the interests of keeping some constructive discussion going on here, now all the pointless rampers/derampers fairy stories have quietened down, what are any holders estimates of profits?
I have:
For coal exports:
(I can't find separate detailed figures in the reports to calculate domestic sales from, as I think they are keeping the contacted prices confidential?)
- During first 6 months of 2021 R990m ($65m) profit was RNS'ed, with an average spot price of approx. $90. Published Average Export Sales Price (R/t) of R1105 after TGA discount to RBCT price)
- By my conservative calculations, for the 2nd half (7m tons only in case railings are even worse than expected) using transposition of figures from first half, with an average coal price in the current period of $140, based on past prices and current futures prices and allowing for 20% discount to RBCT spot, gives approx. $345m profit in 6 months.
- With same formula,1st 6 months of 2022, average future coal prices over that time currently $114, gives $200m profit.
So that's $610m (£452m) profit in 18 months, using conservative published figures, with a current MCap of only £404m.
Comparisons:
The capital markets day presentation shows the company was making lots of money in 2018 when Coal averaged approx. $95 (Published Average Export Sales Price (R/t) of R1060 after TGA discount to RBCT price) and long term coal price futures are now above this for at least the next 5 years and rising.
Finding a exact match company is difficult, but comparing companies that major in coal, like New Hope, Whitehaven and Exxaro our MCap ratios currently seem extremely low in comparison.
Therefore if the figures above are representative of the detailed 12 months accounts when published, there is plenty of scope for a big rerate.
Please DYOR, don't rely on my figures and let's see some others on here.
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