Member Info for redbluerhino

Gary, according to the FT article below BP was one of the sovereign wealth funds purchases.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cb71f75-cc6e-4ed5-9106-29bd33099fa3

The SP is down circa 2% not sure what the panic is about..

It is just the US market opening and being down..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/saudi-arabia-wealth-fund-buys-stakes-in-disney-facebook-citi

BP is indeed one of their investments but they are investing quite heavily/widely.

Yes Boris said that it would "soon be time" to impose quarantine on people coming into this country.

Agree that this is a major setback for airlines across the board - nobody is going to travel for leisure if they are required to remain indoors for 2 weeks. Question is how long these requirements remain in place, a July restart for IAG may still be within reach but this is certainly a setback.

How do we see the share price moving in the coming week(s)? The range over the last few weeks has generally been 290-330, so where we finished today isn't a surprise, although i have to say i was expecting closer to 300 due to it being the ex dividend date.

The price of oil is slowly recovering, demand is slowly picking up with the easing of lockdowns and anticipation of lockdowns being lifted (as well as organic cuts in north america and the OPEC+ countries reducing output). There are however murmurs of some states being unable to abide by the OPEC+ cuts as well as some shale producers looking to recommence/increase output once the price of WTI hits 30+. The demand for jet fuels is also likely to be very limited in the short-medium term.

Personally believe a major factor will be the willingness of the general populous across the world to return to pre-covid norms. Doesn't matter if the lockdowns are lifted if people are afraid to live their pre-covid lives. How long might this sort of sentiment linger? Will there be a second peak of the virus (at present there seems to only be quite localised re-occurrences)? How close might we be to a vaccine/more effective treatment which would undoubtedly boost all markets?

I expect more of the same range from the share price in the short term, with the upper bound only being broken significantly upon news of substantial increases in demand, cuts in production and near term prospects of effective treatment/vaccination for the virus.

TMT, i'm intrigued to understand why you think a play for airlines is similar to oil. As far as i am aware aviation accounts for only 8% of global oil consumption. Betting on the world moving again (on road) is probably a more near term bet than the world moving again in the air, which would in the simplest terms mean that oil recovers faster than airlines.

Am i missing something here?

Been mulling over Boeing shares for a while now. Haven't been through the balance sheet in a great deal of detail but i'm slightly concerned by the fact that they were already hampered by the 737 MAX (2.2 billion loss in in 2019?) and have growing debt (doubled in 2019).

Not an attempt to deramp, just my thoughts on what has kept me out to date - happy to listen to alternative viewpoints.

Robe, the record date is typically the day after the ex dividend date. In the UK Friday is a bank holiday hence the record date is the subsequent Monday.

My understanding of the relevant legislation is that there would have to be a major market event rendering the declared dividend unaffordable for the company for it to be withdrawn - happy to be corrected.

I suspect that the SP is where it is because the current market conditions (oversupply, storage, demand, etc) are governing as opposed to the confirmation of a dividend. The dividend being maintained is of course positive but considered in conjunction with the fact that there is likely long term damage to the demand of jet fuels, uncertainty in how enthusiastically the general populous will return to social 'norms' post lockdown, etc means that the SP isn't moving as you'd typically expect upon dividend declaration.

Arsenal, the comparison being made is between current BP dividend levels and current shell dividend levels (post-cut) as a ratio against the share price.

"Newcrest Mining shares have gone into a trading halt ahead of an announcement of a “material acquisition” and an equity raising."

I think by now those that follow this board are fully aware of the value Caitlin brings with his/her posts, which are typically geared around 'this will be sub £2' or 'wait till £2 to buy'. Happy to listen to varying opinions provided they are substantiated, which is usually where you can distinguish between the LTH's, day traders, and the useless.

I have a very small and recent holding (4p) here comparative to most posters. There is a lot of positivity and it's refreshing to see it accompanied by some seemingly knowledgeable contributors. Thank you to those individuals and all the best to everyone holding.

Maybe because the relationship between oil price and SP isn't as linear as you think it is.

Correction WTI almost up 30%.

WTI up almost 20% Brent up almost 10%.

Or it might just be to do with WTI actually being $13.8 and Brent $20.7, rises of 19% and 7% at present.

Personally expect the dividend to be cut rather than cancelled. Speculating that the dividend will be cancelled in it's entirety is just as speculative as those expecting a "bloodbath" of the share price, which we are obviously yet to see.