Suppose low oil prices and covid-19 are already factored into the share price and investors are potentially anticipating a cut in production through an agreement between Saudi Arabia/Russia/USA.
If a deal is done the share price will only go up, if there are negotiations and it is confirmed that no agreement has been reached then i agree the share price is likely to go down. Far from a lose lose situations.
Considering the oil price the share price is holding up around the 300 mark rather strongly. Can't see it falling below the lows we've already seen earlier this month, would be surprised to see it sub 250.
Seems clear that the Russian's seek an OPEC+ deal that includes the USA. Not sure how likely that is to materialise but the fact that there is a desire to come to a deal in the first place is progress in itself.