Member Info for redbluerhino

Seems like the SP is remaining at yesterday's levels irrespective of the WTI crash for May.

Bad luck for those waiting for £2.50, with the production cuts in May/ongoing organic cuts, this may be the peak of the oversupply.

You're right Gary thanks for the clarification.

April 30, 2020 Record date First quarter 2020 distribution
April 29, 2020 Ex-distribution date First quarter 2020 distribution
May 14, 2020 Payment date First quarter 2020 distribution
May 8, 2020 Results First quarter 2020 results

April 29th is the next ex dividend date.

Results seem to be due May 8th.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/bp-midstream-partners/investor-relations/financial-calendar.html

The oil price has remained stagnant, and i expect the share price of large oilers to react similarly. Nothing is about to 'fly' as the circus yesterday was implying but nothing is about to be hammered either.

Perhaps the reality is that a floor below the oil price has been established through these cuts but the very real demand/storage uncertainties have also been confirmed from these recent talks.

So based on current production levels OPEC+ and the G20 have seemingly agreed to cut approximately 19mb/d.

Any predictions for how the share price will react? I see an upside but in the vicinity of 10-20%.

OPEC+ deal plus numbers from G20 countries - Brent up to mid to late 30's.
OPEC+ deal and no numbers from G20 countries - Brent hovering around mid 30's.
No OPEC+ deal - Brent hovering around mid 20's.

Thefuturetruth, "what saudi wants it gets" doesn't seem to be the case at present, they have been trying to get Mexico on board for the best part of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

I'm a holder so my interests align with most of the posters here but there is no point being oblivious to the facts, there is no announcement because consultations are ongoing. Saudi Arabia want a mechanism to measure/guarantee that the US cuts on Mexico's behalf.

Dpullar, deal isn't done Mexico are yet to agree to the cuts and Saudia Arabia are insistent on all OPEC+ contributing the same 23%.

Seems like the hold up is for Saudi Arabia to understand exactly how the USA intend to cut on behalf of Mexico.

AKA,

Agree that the oversupply is a serious challenge. However, it is a challenge that in my opinion is already factored into the current share price. The OPEC+ deal and the "organic" reductions in production from the G20 provide a smoother transition into the 'taps off' phase when there will be a more significant contribution from the "organic" reductions. In that time frame (lets say for sake of argument 3 months) there is a real possibility that demand begins to pick up, if it doesn't there is potential for further organised cuts and further "organic" cuts. Either way the remaining 60-70% of global demand in combination with the organised/organic cuts should keep the oil price stable (all be it at a low level).

Purely from a share price perspective, not long ago we were looking at a lack of coordination between major producers (US, Russia, Saudi Arabia) and an all out price/production war, which was also incorporated into the share price. There is now global coordination and support for the market, which can only be a positive for the share price. I don't expect there to be any significant upside in the short term due to the uncertainty associated with storage and covid-19 but i also feel that these elements are already reflected in the current share price.

The OPEC+ deal, which remains conditional on Mexico joining the cuts, would see a cut of 10mb/d from October 2018 levels. Based on the April 2020 production levels that equates to 15mb/d being cut. The G20 is supportive of the stabilisation of energy markets, with the US supporting the surplus of oil with their strategic reserves as well as organic cuts expected to be in the region of 5mb/d.

Presuming the deal goes ahead, with or without Mexico, the oil market is seemingly in a far stabler position than it was a few days ago. In the short term challenges remain with regards to storage, which is why there is a hold point in June to reassess, as well as a proposed mechanism to measure cuts in production.

If there isn't an official deal the share price will react negatively, but i expect a slight retrace towards the £3 mark at most. If there is an official deal then i don't expect that we will be seeing sub £3 again, especially considering the coordination now in play between all major producers.

AKA on what basis do you see BP falling to around mid 2's?

Does/Will the G20 statement include the figure of 23% reduction or the likes?

https://www.ft.com/content/16ac91d8-42bf-4190-88de-f3d89b2b36f4?shareType=nongift

G20 behind OPEC+ deal.

Brent fell yesterday because Mexico did not commit to the OPEC+ deal so there was uncertainty attached to it.

Agreed psmorgan, the cut from OPEC+ stands at 10m, if the G20 countries cut by the same amount the most you would get is 5-6m, it's not going anywhere near 20m.