Member Info for redbluerhino

It's not going to be a 22/23m cut, at most it will be around 15m.

Where are people getting this 15mb/d cut from? The OPEC+ agreement, including Russia surmounts to 10mb/d.

If all of the G20 countries not part of OPEC++ cut by a similar magnitude (circa 20%) they would reach around 5mb/d i believe.

Have a feeling it will be a deal in principle subject to x, y, z being agreed to by other countries.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html

Apparently main obstacles to deal sorted between Russia and Saudi Arabia and outline of a deal agreed. DYOR.

Personally don't expect more than a 10-15% impact even if the production cuts are confirmed. There's still huge unknowns with the virus timescales and the impact on the aviation industry which will be factored into the share price.

Personally a holder here so more than happy for the share price to rocket significantly but i just don't see it happening just yet.

Personally expect the SP to hover around 340 (+/-10%) until there is official news/development with either production cuts or covid-19. Suggesting a return to sub 250 is as ludicrous as expecting the SP to go anywhere near 390.

AKA, in the short term an increase in production was expected by both Saudi Arabia and Russia, yes there were always prospects of production cuts but we are now in a position where countries such as Norway, Canada, and potentially US oil producers may join the efforts to reduce production, and that was not previously on the radar. Agreed that until something concrete comes out of it it's only speculation, but it is undoubtedly a positive development.

The Covid-19 uncertainty is priced in and the point of my last post was to dispute a return to sub 250. There has been no development to suggest a return to those prices.

It reached sub 250 when there were no prospects of production cuts and the impact of covid-19 was a huge unknown. Over the course of the last week it has materialised that there are efforts to reach a production cut and the worst hit countries in Europe appear to be showing a downward trend (Italy/Spain), although covid-19 does continue to be a huge unknown. Based on the aforementioned i highly doubt that we'll be seeing such a significant drop.

Nhawan, that is one perspective, (and i don't dispute that it's possible), but another logical explanation could simply be that more time is needed for negotiations with major oil players (as Trump intended to do over the weekend), which is also mentioned in the bloomberg piece.

The oil price is a positive for the share price but the stagnation of talks is most definitely a more influential negative, still don't see the share price going sub 300 unless the breakdown of talks is confirmed.

Meeting delayed till Thursday apparently.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/saudi-arabia-says-putin-s-comments-on-opec-deal-is-incorrect

The Saudi Arabian response is geared towards distancing themselves from an attack on american shale producers (as the Russian's claimed it was a Saudi motive). I don't think the response in any way has a bearing on the a deal being reached. Ultimately you're right to say that no deal is a possibility but the contents of that article don't make that any more or less likely.

That's an interesting story thanks for the entertainment Tacet.

"The Russian president instructed his energy minister to co-ordinate with Opec and allied producer nations at an extraordinary, virtual meeting to be held on Monday focused on alleviating the supply glut and a response to the coronavirus outbreak."

https://www.ft.com/content/beb5e187-35e7-457c-a99b-19afe1395040

Russia being on board is obviously a major plus, making Saudi Arabia play ball won't be that difficult when push comes to shove because of the US's political influence over the country. The challenge remains bringing the US companies on board, which is a critical element for Russia, if that goes well it will be a massive plus. The share price should see some upside on Monday but i don't expect anything significant until a formal announcement of an agreement, after all there still remains the risk of no deal being agreed, which would obviously have a detrimental impact on the share price.

That's feasible Asper's but my underlying point was that you were posting something that had since been superseded.

Aspers you're a few days behind, since then Saudi Arabia have called an emergency oil meeting.

Saudi Arabia have called for an emergency oil meeting so Trump's tweets may not be entirely unsubstantiated.

In my opinion a production cap is mostly priced into the current SP, there will be a slight upside upon official confirmation but in all likelihood we won't see anything significantly above 400+ until there is a better understanding of Covid-19 timescales. Similarly i don't expect to see sub 300 again either.

Don't expect to see either £2.60 or £3.60 tomorrow.. will most like hover around £3 unless there is major news/developments.