Member Info for Reckoner

The BB is made up of many individuals with different views.
My own understanding is:
1) LFT - Waiting for tech transfer to BBI to complete and start production of first pilot batch for clinical validation under CONDOR. The TT RNS could be anytime. Transfer to other manufacturers such as Abingdon should happen once first TT complete.
2) BAMS - Clinical validation underway, again under CONDOR.
There are other smaller pieces on the Covid front, such as Affimer licenses for ELISA and DeepVerge.
RNSs associated with LFT and BAMS should pop up over coming weeks.
I understand the frustration people feel, but all need to see the bigger picture here and what is at stake. No corners cut or rushing simply to please PIs. The world is clearly waiting for an LFT which can be rolled out for home testing and analysis, i.e. a saliva LFT, to enable full mass testing.
Behind all this is a strategy for making Avacta a big player in therapeutics. If you believe in this company then sit tight and relax.

Every interview he does he fails to see the wider context. Why stopgap tests are needed pending the real deal tests. Why mass testing now, with all its problems, can start to free us from the threat of national lockdowns. He's either a perfectionist, or he has a particular axe to grind. Perhaps he wants a higher profile job (Testing Tsar?) and is going to be a pain until he gets it.
Meanwhile the anti-brexit brigade who can't forgive Boris and pals (Guardian, Newsnight, Good Law Project) and the Daily Mail who are always on some mission to outrage us all, find Deeks useful and wheel him out anytime there's a chance they can sow doubt in our minds about Moonshot.

henk, on volatile stocks like this a large holder can cause strong downward pressure as they sell off. We now know he has no more to sell. As for why he sold when he did, he is a wealthy experienced investor who will work to a particular plan. Sticking to the plan is more important for overall gains across a portfolio than changing according to current news or sentiment.

No Mik, it's down 50%. As TW says, it's 100% to get back up to that level. Very simple maths.

Sym, when you say we are down almost 100% you mean almost 50%.
If it were almost 100% it would be close to zero.

This is a drug development company. Not a quick investment unless you know how to trade. It has long timelines on getting products trialled and out to market. 4D is doing what it can but it is vulnerable to all the weaknesses associated with being listed on AIM. Please do some research on the nature of Life Sciences companies and on the nature of AIM.

Thanks trendz. Much more helpful than that deramper who keeps popping up.

I think the main reasons for this week's downward pressure have been the vaccine announcement on Monday which led to investors transferring out of riskier stocks and back into travel, leisure, banks etc., plus short-term investors taking their profits from the recent merger-related rise.
The vaccine effect is wearing off now as the reality of coming months sinks in.
And Liroy is spot on in saying there's a constant volatility here which is exploited, long and short, by traders, including the quants. So each time there's a decent rise you have to expect a bit of a drop afterwards. I hope the NASDAQ listing helps to stabilise things more.
Long-term, this looks to me to be superb.

Good to see. Although Synairgen might be surprised to be described as a testing company.

Sorry, my reference to naked shorting is thinking of the US. But the rest of my comment still applies.

Russky, your linked article is not what is going on here and could give some people the wrong idea that 4d is under attack.
Only one fund has a declared short position above 0.5% at the moment and that is a quant which is based on algorithms. Naked shorting, which involves selling shares that don’t exist, is banned. And many countries impose restrictions on shorting during difficult times. Otherwise, this is a legitimate practice with arguments in favour and against it.

How does a quant increasing its short position by 0.11% (c.145k shares) on Tuesday explain a 10% drop today? There were over 6m shares traded today, many times that number the fund would've sold. Genuine question, because there are various stock answers on LSE, one of them being about shorters. But surely shorters are betting on a pattern of behaviour with a stock. And that pattern comes from the habits of short-term investors, particular with relatively high-profile AIM stocks like 4D where these investors appear and then vanish just as quickly.

Probably traders and impatient people who bought in following the NASDAQ news and who are now selling as there is no simple piece of shareprice-busting news for them from SITC. I topped up this afternoon to reduce my average.

For me, ODX is very well placed to take advantage of the current shift to rapid testing, both antigen and antibody, both POC and home-based.
If anything, the breakthrough on a C19 vaccine means that Ab testing will be even more in demand.
ODX doesn't develop tests, and therefore doesn't need to tie itself to any particular test or company. All it needs to do is manufacture other companies' tests.
It doesn't need to be UK-only either. There is a great opportunity here for ODX to export worldwide and to manufacture tests from other countries.

“On the antibody tests alone, can it justify its current MC? That's now the big question here”

No it can’t. It should be much higher by my calculations.

If it dropped 100% it would be worth nothing.

The Innova test is rapid - 20 to 30 mins.
However, I suspect this tender is to widen the field for other suppliers to try.

Thank you Regulator. That's pretty crucial info as some will assume from the tender wording that it's associated with self-analysis.

“These will primarily be antigen tests - not antibody test (that's why they have to be collected)”

Regulator, where in this tender does it say or imply collection from the home?
It’s all about receipt and handling of stock, delivery and handling queries.

They have both been active on twitter this week concerning avacta.