Member Info for Reckoner

I can’t find any mention on the Thriva website of a lateral flow antibody test which would compete with Abingdon’s. This does appear to be home-based sampling for lab-based analysis and therefore something that takes several days to complete. Abingdon don’t provide a lab-based testing service as far as I know. They manufacture lateral flow tests for rapid testing requirements.
Different types of testing for different reasons.

Please ask him how on earth we protect the vulnerable without a highly accurate and repeatable test?
Patients in hospitals, the elderly in care homes, people with chronic conditions - all need shielding. So those responsible for their care must have highly sensitive tests and not the current "NHS" tests which have been rejected by the FDA.

Still lower than my average JSP, by 3p.

I've doubled my holding here to reduce my average.
Would be rude not to at these prices.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/lateral-flow-validation-prioritisation-criteria-for-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens

In February DHSC changed their priorities for sample collection method:

1) Anterior nares swab - outer nose
2) Mid-turbinate swab - little bit more uncomfortable
3) Saliva - possibly because it can be difficult to get sufficient saliva.

Note the following:
'A lateral flow device will only be considered for validation when all lateral flow devices with a higher priority specimen collection method have been considered for validation.'

While a saliva-only test is valid and will be considered, it won't be validated before the higher priority tests have completed their validations.

In their recent interim results Abingdon highlighted the various studies underway to gather data proving the usefulness of the ABC-19 test in a range of scenarios. One of these use cases is for an immunity passport which has become a hot topic of late. They also announced promising data from a study on measuring immune response to the first Pfizer jab which will certainly be covered at this webinar (actually on Thursday, not Tuesday).
I get the sense that strong momentum is building for putting the ABC-19 tests to good use in various countries.

Interesting that the Project Manager will be implementing a workforce management system. This is a sure sign of a planned significant ramp-up in headcount.

It’s just a report by Deeks. Best ignored.

Clearly there are all kinds of milestones which need to declared in an RNS for their non-Covid business but I think any of the below would have a significant impact on SP.

Avacta news: Achieving Clinical Validation and announcement of contracts with DHSC and/or other customers should cause a rerate here. If this is going to happen these pieces of news (along with Avacta obtaining CE) should land in quick succession.

Other two Abingdon antigen tests: Confirmed orders for either or both (awaiting completion of Tech Transfer for one of them).

ABC-19: Contracts and orders with overseas partners, including governments.

There is also the possibility of a surprise announcement, given the hush-hush way the Government and UK diagnostics companies are behaving, which could put Abingdon’s capacity to work.

91.4%

https://www.vatic.health/knownow-accuracy

By now Avacta and BBI must have nailed down the 'developer-to-manufacturer' TT, so I would think BBI should be doing the 'manufacturer-to-manufacturer' TTs required with GAD and ODX. Otherwise it would take too long to redo it from Avacta. It makes sense to me that a large award to Avacta will cover them for their own supplier arrangements with BBI and Abingdon for the government tests.

Andy, the only ones I know of are Seres Therapeutics (MCRB) plus a company called Finch Therapeutics (FNCH) which is listing today. Might be others. There are also private companies in the same space (microbiome therapeutics).

I don’t think MHRA were keen on approving any finger pick tests for home use. They were happy with blood samples taken by professionals, but not by people at home. I should think it’s only a matter of time before this changes so that finger prick samples like ABC-19’s are allowed.

You confused me by mentioning an antigen test in the same post, as it’s got no bearing on the approval for ABC-19 due to very different sampling methods and objectives.

Which test are you referring to?
The ABC-19 antibody test is the one Abingdon have mentioned with regard to MHRA approval for home use and this hasn't been granted yet.
The Innova antigen test you refer to is a different test altogether, for current infection rather than past infection or immunity.
Abingdon are at various stages with three customers for antigen tests, awaiting official approval or contracts or completion of tech transfer.

They are just quant funds trading automatically based on patterns they're programmed to recognise. Probably means nothing more than that.

GAD is Global Access Diagnostics, a social enterprise set up by Mologic to provide affordable diagnostics to low income countries.

I still think it might be twelvty

My reasons for buying into this company, in no particular order:

1) A major shift towards mass rapid testing, the catalyst being Covid-19 of course. This will put in place the infrastructure required for testing a whole range of other conditions and for future epidemics. Not just UK, but globally.

2) ABDX is already a significant lateral flow diagnostics player and has the stated goal of becoming the largest automated LFD manufacturer in the world. Aiming for 150m tests per annum by end of this year.

3) Manufacturing contract with Avacta who look increasingly likely to be one of the antigen LFT winners in UK and abroad, means potential for very substantial revenues and an ongoing partnership as Avacta develop further diagnostic solutions.

4) Current government has stated it intends to invest and develop enterprises in the North. Might not mean much in the end but at the moment there is a sense that some government decisions are made with the regions in mind, more so than in the past.

5) Non-Covid revenues more than doubled in H1.

6) At least 3 customers with Antigen LFTs at different stages of tech transfer.

7) Some momentum now towards a worldwide market for the RTC ABC-19 antibody test with significant orders expected by June from companies in 7 countries and more to follow.

8) Collaboration with Abcam should secure supplies of reagents for ABDX, these being a bottleneck at present for the diagnostics industry. Will also potentially provide access to further customers.

9) Growing US revenues and a focus on building business there. Note the committed spend on testing in the recent Biden bill.

The current SP and mcap are very low IF the stated goal is achievable. Point 3 concerning Avacta would be enough to set things rising suddenly. The other points are simply good reasons for me to stay invested with ABDX and should mean more steady SP growth.

Still 3 MMs I think. But trading volume is highest for over 2 weeks.
A bit of good news on ABC-19 and growing belief in upcoming antigen test news.

The Public Accounts Committee is repeating what the National Audit Office has already said: Can do better; Must do better. Some media commentators will misinterpret this but it doesn’t undermine the rapid testing strategy. These people want to see this work more efficiently, so it’s a good thing.
Tracing has failed but it was worth trying. Rapid mass testing is essential. Stop paying stupid money to consultants and be open about who is being awarded what.