Member Info for RealityChap

To the best of our knowledge they haven't filled ANY of that order book, or whatever it was! We don't have definitive information that a single generator is operating via Speedy.

Except it clearly isn't , it it? As far as I'm concerned an order is a contractual position that says I want X number of generators delivered by Y date and I'll pay you Z. I don't for a second think we have £27m (and it really should be significantly more than that by now if all was going to plan) worth of those.

Would be interesting to know what an order book is! Does anyone really know?

We'll see. I'm not saying it will happen but if it does then it's PE funded and they don't tend to overpay. I think there will be plenty of shareholders just grateful to see their losses reduced - those outlandish dreams of multiple £s per share are dust.

I've absolutely no idea why these sort of trades might indicate potential takeover activity, none at all. But I do think the firm being taken private is a real possibility and have said as much long before they recruited a new CEO who has said he prefers operating off the public markets. It's hard to see what it is gaining from being a listed company other than cost and admin requirements. As for a potential price that's anyone's guess - but I'm absolutely certain that the cracker won't attract the sort of value being bandied about until it is proven commercially and I can't see any indication at all that we are close to that being the case, even disregarding AFC's longstanding inability to commercialise anything. Anyone buying it now will want to reap the vast bulk of whatever rewards there may be down the line for themselves, not hand it to shareholders now.

I think we can safely say, RedKnight, that very few people have massive CGT related ears over AFC

Thank you for that incisive piece of analysis.

Just another spectacularly pointless post. Only one exclamation mark, though, which I think is a tacit acknowledgement of that

I think you are having difficulty in distinguishing facts from things that were said might happen/were planned to happen/ were hoped might happen. If units are regularly going out of the door to Tier 1 construction companies and being used on site I find it inconceivable that we wouldn't know that, as an actual fact.

CN, you state so many things as facts but the fact is that we don't know any facts. Everything else is just specualtion.

'Units are going out the door to Speedy Tier 1 customers' - are they? No evidence of it

'Nifty Lift contract is going to be huge for Afc' - might be, certainly hope it is but definitely isn't a given

'Acciona should be ordering more units soon' - might do, certainly hope so but taking one unit on a short term lease after two or more years of re-development certainly wasn't a ringing endorsement.

'ABB unit nearly through CE marking'. Maybe, but no indication of orders to follow unless the ten announced years ago is still valid, but we don't know that

'Ammonia Cracker news should not be far away either'. Maybe but we were told that there was no chance of revenue this year and on past performance nobody can have any well based confidence that it will generate market orders soon.

It's just guesswork - the only fact we have is the share price

And I'm hoping that I'll bump into Jennifer Lawrence at the pub tonight... :) Really mystifies me in the circumstances why anyone who isn't ultra-bullish is dismissed as having some sort of negative agenda.

It clearly isn't possible to have a sensible discussion with you so I shall stop attempting to do so.

I'm afraid I don't agree at all. The budget may have some developments of interest but none that could have a bearing on why it appears (we simply don't know but he share price is probably telling us) that nothing bar the Acciona trial unit has gone out of the door. it just can't be the case that things have happened but they're not announcing them until a budget has been announced; why would the NOMAD do that?

Https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news/removing-iht-tax-break-on-aim-stocks-might-make-it-unfit-for-purpose/?eea=*EEA*&eea=eGNHWjdSUXk0d2VybGE1d3o1MnkyQXJKa1lwUDArUTlWd21hY01oZlZzST0%3D&utm_source=acs&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INDIGO_MM_EDI_ALL_MORNING_141024&deliveryName=DM278668

Who is it that pays de-rampers and how can I get in touch with them? It's an absolutely bonkers theory; just a short step away from tinfoil hat territory. if you really think that's what I'm doing, jgbb, please point to such a post.

You are clutching at very thin straws with this budget obsession. Presumably you are thinking there may be material subsidies for products such as ours? Any basis for that or just wishful thinking? It seems much more likely to me that there will be moves made re infrastructure and there's a very real possibility that such developments may actually damage our business, as our model owes something to the deficiencies in the grid that make mobile hydrogen generated power attractive.

Try having a debate rather than just being paranoid about every point of view that doesn't agree with yours.

I do find it remarkable that anyone can deride people asking extremely reasonable questions as a 'negative clown' when the share price has collapsed and continues to do so. Anyone who retains unbridled optimism in the long-term absence of any meaningful news is clearly on some very good stuff.

If we had sold just one unit to Tamgo then that would surely be deemed to be price sensitive - so it can only be concluded that we haven't. Bu the real mystery is that if things are going as badly as the share price suggests then there must be a massive miss (even bigger than the one that was snuck out in the Investor Meets Call) to forecast revenues and how on earth could the NOMAD deem that to be non price sensitive and therefore not worthy of announcement?

It's impossible to prove a negative! You have no, repeat no, evidence that what you say in any of your guises is true - and in the meantime it plummets yet again, very much against my interests

And, predictably, no answer. buy I'm sure we can look forward to lots of posts with some vague (at best) connection and lots of exclamation marks.

This 'market wide re-rating' has been coming for quite a few years now and there's absolutely no reason to think it's any more imminent now than it has been through that period. Of course fund managers want to talk it up, they have funds to sell. And two clear points even if there is a re-rating. Firstly, that doesn't mean everything goes up. It could mean that UK stocks go down less than other major markets. And secondly, market wide never means every stock in the market. mature stocks are valued by metrics that just don't apply to businesses at the stage where AFC are. We are years away, from a price/earnings rating or a yield based valuation and the initiator of this post has often posted about the broker targets being based on discounted cash flow to which the primary question must be - what cash flow?

All of that could be blown out of the water anyway by geo-political events but let's assume, anyway, that there is a re-rating that applies to every listed stock. It's just not going to affect AFC in any material way unless they can actually start to sell product because rating hope and broken 'promises' is hardly an exact or rewarding science