Member Info for RealityChap

There's a clear difference between saying there won't be any news until post budget/US election and claiming a short term, (very short term!) price bounce for the sector somehow vindicates your view that the budget was fundamental to why there has been absolutely no meaningful news for month while the share price has collapsed

Positive for hydrogen generally but to get this moving we need specific positives for AFC

Fair enough. That level of detail had escaped me but I'll believe it when I see it

Your post of 12.41.

We have zero KNOWLEDGE that things are moving out of the door.

We have NO REASON at all to be confident that revenue for the financial year will be £4m. Remember it was meant to be £6m previously.

And it's pretty much a GUESS as to what he £27m referred to, but we can be all but certain it is not contracted orders.

Apart form those entirely logical doubts you're bang on

The £4m is on top of the £27m? Really, how so?

136 units to Nifty? That's weirdly specific - where is that from?

I truly wish that I knew 'exactly what's going on here'. Sadly I haven't a clue and neither has anyone else.

About time he updated his LinkedIN status. How could this help AFC? If the Saudis are going to produce huge amounts of green hydrogen yare they really going to rely on a tiny company thousands of miles away to be an integral part of that process?

The theory was first mover advantage on both fuel cells and cracker. It's hard to believe we are in pole position on the former and the jury is out on the latter

Sorry Meggies, but I think that is nonsense. Markets may not be perfectly clean but I really don't think that negative rantings on a messageboard have any material effect on the price so why would anyone pay posters? It's pretty obvious now that the company has failed to deliver in the year of delivery and that is why we are where we are. That's not rocket science.

CN, you can't really think a hedge fund is paying people to post on here can you? That's tinfoil hat stuff

The premise is delusional really. There has been no news - that's beyond dispute! But conflating that dismal situation with anything to do with a budget or elections has no logic at all.

Well I hope you are right CN. But there is no evidence at all to support your hope of >£4m.

Sorry CN, you are missing the point. Revenue was forecast at £6m then, bizarrely, that was adjusted to £4m in a presentation. It is not phenomenal to miss the original target by a third, and, let's face it, that's the best we can possibly hope for. Revenue in the previous year was when the company wasn't commercial in any realistic sense but if you really do want too use that as a comparator then it's worth going back to the previous year - because that 227k figure was well under half what it was in the the year to 10/22.

Come on, you can't seriously think that percentages matter at this stage of the game. It's about delivering on expectations. A few months ago - £6m. A couple of months ago - £4m Now? Anyone's guess!. Revenue is a key element of how the market can value the company and that has to be forward looking. If forecasts are shown to be pie in the sky then that valuation is going to suffer - and it has. if in the year of delivery revenue was forecast to be £6m and it comes in at a third of that, that's nothing to be positive about - it just throws whatever numbers they come up with next time into doubt.

CN. It is a 'fact' that Speedy have signed that deal. It may or may not be a 'fact' that AFC's products are involved; we just don't know. There's no point setting up a new user name purporting to state the facts and then posting links which are speculative in the only context we are interested in.

It's more likely than the budget being a factor. Companies have to sort out their own micro issues before focusing on macro stuff that's out of their control. I still think it's absolutely bizarre that they haven't confirmed any Speedy deployments

Fair enough, we are all entitled to an opinion. Personally I see no relevance for either event in terms that it would make sense to preclude cracking on and selling product and developing the business

I'm genuinely intrigued by this. Just what is it that you think might be in the budget that could have a material impact on AFC?

As far as AIM goes there is a clear possibility (it's been flagged enough!) that tax breaks (CGT and IHT) may be withdrawn. There's certainly no possibility that they'll be enhanced. Now, how much of an incentive to invest in what are largely high risk/speculative issues I'm not really sure but their withdrawal wouldn't be positive.

So after that, presumably we're talking green initiatives/subsidies etc.? If that's the case they will have to be pretty dramatic to almost instantly turn the prospects around won't they? That doesn't sound like an entirely realistic prospect to me. There may be dramatic change over time but I find it hard to think that something will happen but I'm sure that would be phased rather than immediate. After all, we all know that the country needs infrastructure spending very badly and it would be madness to make that difficult in the short term. Political madness, of course, is never out of the question.

This is a crucial budget but its overall focus, as we all know, is going to be on raising taxes.

So what is everybody, in your opinion, missing? What is it that could be in the budget that will have such a big effect on AFC, specifically, that it has been worth going silent in anticipation of while the share price collapses to levels that none of us thought we'd see again?

And this absence of news isn't really something that can be stage managed for months. The NOMAD (laughable though the role is) can't really be sanctioning the suppression of price sensitive news if there is any.

If units are in use by Speedy (let's hope so!) then it's just bonkers that shareholders don't know that. I know that Bond said they wouldn't announce every single deployment, and fair enough, but the company has pretty much bet the shop on power supplies for construction so I think it would be perfectly reasonable to have had a heads up to say that at least the first one is up, running and generating income