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France looking relatively strong pre-open, but don’t be fooled. This has the potential to get very choppy this morning. Hope I’m wrong, but expecting an MM raid at some point before a mild bounce. Ten minutes to cancel those stop orders, don’t give them away too cheaply.....
DYOR. GLA.

....and before you set your strategy in stone, I’d suggest that you read this article, gives figures on a range of financial outcomes. Good luck.
https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/

Morning all.
I imagine a few are considering their next move, based upon your own circumstances. I remain positive re NCYT and will be holding long term. Yes, Friday’s news was bad, but it was way oversold imo. Whatever your strategy, good luck with it.
Could I make one suggestion though? Whatever your plans, please avoid setting stop loss orders just below current SP as a ‘safety net’ to any initial volatility (it will come). They will be quickly taken out by the MMs and algorithms, leaving you high and dry very quickly. Decide on your strategy now, without the confusion of the market moving in front of you, and then stick to it.
Tomorrow will be very interesting, possibly testing. Accept that and plan accordingly.
Personally, I see initial turbulence (partly fuelled by such stop orders), followed by a mild bounce as the market seeks further clarification from NCYT.
The company still makes great products, still has a great R&D pipeline and, most importantly, is still making huge profits.
DYOR. Good luck all.

Good post Kaeren.

Van
Growth plans need finance and so expected income has to be part of the plan. It’s not just one contract renewal we’ve lost, we’re taking legal advice re our biggest client! Big relationship breaker.
Our anticipated income has halved. Of course that affects future planning, at least the timing of said plan.

crl
Agreed, we definitely need GM’s head out of the sand next week. Time to lead.

Van
I’d agree with you, but for the fact that since then we appear to have lost our biggest client. With a drop of up to 50% in previously expected revenue, I’d suggest those plans may have to change somewhat.

Some clear thinking investors on here.
Good to hear your views.
Folks, don’t fall into the trap of only reading the posts that carry the message you want to hear....

I’d totally understand why many would currently welcome a quick TO approach, it would be the fastest and cleanest way to recoup losses that many have suffered. Such a move would not see NCYT in a strong position, currently. A buyer would know that many SHs would welcome it and go in very low. It’s not my preferred route out of this, but I currently see it as the most likely.
I’d just like to see the BoDshow some balls and come out fighting on Monday. I don’t think they will though. Such a good company, producing innovative products that should be in high demand. Get on your bloody soapbox BoD

Having had a chance to sleep on yesterday’s events, I can see this going one of just a few ways. NCYT cannot afford to be seen as an injured victim, nor will it’s bigger investors. Although we’ll be under initial attack on Monday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some big buys coming in. This could include NCYT itself, utilising some of it’s huge cash balance to take a chunk of shares into treasury in order to steady the boat. A far better use of cash than letting it languish on account.
In addition, the fundamentals are still strong at this SP value, so we could se the start of a TO becoming clear very quickly. This could prove the quickest route back to c.£10 SP levels, but a bargain if one of the big pharmas are on the look out for a proven testing innovator.
Worryingly, when a company goes public stating that it’s gone legal, it usually means that there has been a fundamental relationship breakdown. On that basis, any future additional HMG contracts have to now be viewed as a potential bonus. Losing this is massive, let’s not be delusional and pretend otherwise, but there are many more huge markets that we appear to already be making good progress with. These have to be targeted aggressively and I really thing GM needs to make effort to give the markets a far better understanding of the current sales breakdown by market and by product.
If they head down this route, we could see the SP consolidating and even a conservative rise. My only fear is that GM remains obstinate and believe that no action is required. Action is required and it revolves around, IMO, clear communication as to where we are now, where we want to get to and how we get there.
We have come up against an unexpected hurdle, but not an insurmountable one. GM needs to stand up and lead the business out of this. Be innovative, be proactive and lead.
I remain heavily invested and I remain positive, but we need to see some genuine leadership here. Otherwise, it will be a TO at the buyers terms....
DYOR and good luck to all, no matter your decision.

I’m also sitting on a very big loss, but I’m holding faith. It’s a sound company with ambition. That’s why I invested a year ago and nothing has changed that.
However, to just try and paper over today’s events is just wrong. It happened, it was big and it was damaging.
Can they recover? Yes. Will they be open to a TO? Just turned from possibility to probability today, IMO.
It’s going to get choppy next week, take your sea-sick pills.....

TB, also with respect, it’s very much game changing in that the market sentiment has taken a huge hit and our base point to climb from is c.40% down (from an already low base). If you don’t think that’s game changing, I really don’t know what is. As for ongoing negotiations, successful resolutions to such things rarely involve public announcements that legal advice has been sought.
As I say, I remain both positive and fully invested, but we’re in a totally different position to the one we saw ourselves in yesterday. To think otherwise is, frankly, delusional. It’ll come good, I believe, but not how we had previously hoped....

Well, many of us were expecting news any minute, but obviously the complete opposite of what we got.
No getting away from facts, this is a tumultuous blow and my pension has taken an almighty hit. I remain positive, given that the fundamentals remain strong (especially at this SP level!), but it’s going to take some clever positioning to turn around such negative sentiment. If you still have skin in the game, let’s not try and dress this up as anything other than game changing, to so is disingenuous.
However, the company remains cash rich, has great products, a superb R&D history and many international markets to aim for. The world has not ended and neither has NCYT’s future imploded!
I’ve been a believer that we’d be snapped up by a big fish for some time, I now think that this will happen now. Not at the £20+ per share we’d hoped for, but for somewhere around half that. Just my personal thought and I’ll stay with this until it happens.
NCYT is a good company making good profits, there will be plenty of interested parties, especially as it will now be viewed as wounded prey. The hunters will be closing in for the kill before it has time to recover fully.
If not, strong fundamentals will see a slow recovery.
I’m holding.

Thanks Johnny, you’ve given me a giggle this evening.

Johnny
Of course you have the right to your opinion. However, you never answered my question: why would I make such a non-event of a response up? What would motivate me to do that?
Always good to question things (especially on BBS), but cynicism ain’t so healthy....

Johnny19
That was most definitely a response from GM, made before he started diverting shareholder enquiries to an agency.
Why would I make up such a response, it’s not exactly earth shattering in content? However, GM replied to my e-mail quickly and on a Sunday morning and laid out his thoughts, which I appreciated.
They appear to be trying to improve their social media output, but that appears to be just a tweak to the look and feel. What needed to change was the message. I hate over-hyped investments, but NCYT have so many factual achievements to choose from that market sentiment should be sky high (a Sunday should the SP).
Anyway, it was a genuine response, I know that to be true. If you choose to believe otherwise, that’s fine. However, please don’t visit this BB and effectively call me a liar. If I were to lie on here, I’d make it a far more extravagant one than that....
Have FUN

Well, this must surely put any doubts to bed. We don’t know the detail yet, but NCYT have clearly won a major UKG contract, given the number (and seniority) of NHS related roles it’s recruiting for. How big? I’m guessing it’s going to be massive, beyond the original phase 2 expectations. Showing all the signs of a deeply embedded, trusted supplier that is going to play a big role both now and in the future. Take a breath folks, this is now purely a case of ‘when’ we receive confirmation. Not ‘if’....

Sorry to say it, but I think you’re spot on there. Long way to go yet before returning to a ‘new’ normal....

Nearly there. Patience will be rewarded.

Great way to look at it Trouble.
In which case, I’m doing all I can to beat the clock!!