What lies ahead?2 Mar 2021 07:31
Lot’s of talk last night about the possibility of a TO and some articles that may suggest this. My thoughts, for what they’re worth...
NCYT will have been on the big boys’ M&A radars for months now, there is no doubt about that. Whether we’d be a fit for any of these guys, well that’s a tricky one to predict. The articles are correct - as we stand right now we do look like a business about to be swallowed whole. The company’s communication has been somewhat erratic and the market’s reaction to the business even more so. Pretty textbook symptoms.
So why am I calm about it? Because I can’t really lose. If we are bought out, we should see a sale SP of above ATHs and a quick, easy exit with reasonable profit.
If the signals are false and we are not a TO target, then I revert to fundamentals and research - this company has huge potential as an independent. The profit potential is far higher, but it could come at the cost of losing what little hair I have left - it will not be a smooth journey.
For what it’s worth, I think the odds are now slightly in favour of a TO, but I’m relatively comfortable either way. There are definitely big games being played at present, that’s plainly obvious to anyone who’s not led too sheltered a life....
Ideal scenario would be a quick restate after a new contract landing, then negotiations on TO based on an uplift based on that higher figure, but you rarely get exactly what you want in this game....
Have FUN!