Member Info for RBMInvest

Hi Wilson
Yep, aware and agree with that. All I’m saying is that all I’m interested now is post Covid, including all existing products that will aid that. Covid testing news will only result in short term SP movement now. Serious growth in SP will only come from the markets either understanding our post Covid strategy or, more likely IMO, through some big M&A or JV news. I’m hoping the latter, it would be quicker and cleaner.
Think we should also all ban the phrase ‘it’s priced in’.....it just hasn’t been proven over the past 6 months.

SPQ, I agree with the long term opportunity, but not on sentiment. How many times has it been stated previously that x, y or z has been priced in, only to get a knock when we get an announcement? If there is negative testing news on Monday, then we’ll come under pressure, I can’t see how that can be argued against. The opportunity I’m seeing now is the post Covid one, hence I’m very interested in seeing developments from a TR1 perspective. That’s the BIG potential upside IMO, not how many Covid tests we sell this year. Short term SP action will come through testing news, long term gains will come from post Covid.

The bigger issue on the immediate horizon is how sentiment may be affected if BoJo stands up on Monday and says central PCR testing is to be wound down. This would be a massive mistake IMO, but there are plenty voices on new channels wanting to see both that and isolation continued. Would be good to see some TR1 news on Monday to counter that.

DRB, I wasn’t specifically referring to your post, nor trying to defend PI100 in particular. I was just highlighting that there’s a Merry band of posters on this bb that continually shout down any realistic, open minded comment. Some of these people appear to have spent every waking hour on this board for the past two years, have discarded any remotely negative rhetoric, are probably fathoms deep underwater, yet still seek to control the ‘mood’ with demands for ‘positivity’. The obvious rampers and derampers are easy to spot and should be ignored. However, all serious investors would surely welcome open, honest middle ground debate, whether from an optimistic or sceptical viewpoint in order to come to their own conclusions. Today’s SP action is a clear case in point, it was always going to be a day for cautious optimism, not for ‘we’ll be millionaires by Christmas, Rodney’.
It’s a point of view that will be lost on a vocal minority, but perhaps not the less vocal shareholders who fear ridicule if they put their heads above the parapet to voice what could be a valuable opinion.
Anyway, enough cr*p from me for one day, a glass of wine and some pork chops are calling me from my non-share investing life.
Have a great evening....

Wilson, I’m not holding him up as a great predictor, only referenced his comments this morning. As far as I can see, the vast, vast majority of us on here (myself included) have been absolutely and consistently cr*p at calling Novacyt SP movements correctly over the past year. But some still happy to belittle those with a slightly different viewpoint. Have a word with yourselves. It’s just an investment, nothing more.

Maybe that’s just how he looks at things, we’re all different. By the same token, I feel some on here could see a picture of DA boarding up their offices with a for sale sign out front and scream ‘buy, we must be moving to bigger premises!!!!’

His first note of caution was at 7.13 this morning, on this thread. Not going into searching out specific quotes, but he’s correct to be cautious on this one. Put simply, I’m not aware of anyone, and I do mean anyone, on this board having even remotely predicted SP actions consistently, so why the tunnel vision? Tunnel vision costs money, simple as that - but too many on here are unwilling to look in the mirror and admit that.

Nothing negative in being realistic, he was correct as proven by that dip into the 190s! It’ll rise again, no doubt, but why belittle someone for calling it correctly? This is a chat forum, not a Novacyt fan club. It’s an investment. You mean nothing to it, it should mean nothing to you other than a means to an end. All views should be respected, not just positive ones. Surely, surely enough people on here are far enough underwater to understand that? Quite incredible attitude from some, really is.....

Good luck Thanglan, sure there’s many of us in the same boat. Surely we’re due some luck.....

HarCris & B2, agree with points made. Only caveat is that I’ve learned not to make any assumptions with NCYT, that includes any assumption that a dispute resolution will be a positive one. That said, I retain a fair amount of ‘skin in the game’, but with a healthier open mind to moves either way. I really do want to see this back where it should be, but it’s been a bruising encounter so far.
That said, no-one pressed the buttons for me. All my doing.

DRB, strategy is still in place and is now my ongoing strategy. Yes, I was lucky enough to sell some on the way down, but I was too slow to react and never again will I allow myself to be suckered in to ploughing too much into one volatile stock. I was, as I’m sure many of us were if we’re being honest, simply dream chasing and greedy. So, time to revert to my old maxim and constantly monitor the whole market for opportunities and constantly weigh them against what I’m holding. I spent FAR too much time concentrating on one stock, something I’m sure many on here have been guilty of (but few will admit to!).
Strategy is now very much ongoing, if I see a potential weakness, I’m reducing quickly, if I see an opportunity (after research) I’m moving in quickly. NCYT is looking to be as low as it’s likely to go, but not out of the woods yet, so my new strategy rules still apply- if NCYT should show signs of further weakness then I’ll be decisive. The discussion on here has swung a bit to ‘what’s the bottom’, when it should always be ‘what can this, or other shares achieve’.....short/medium/long and what is the likelihood of achieving that.
It was painful looking at what I’d done and saying ‘I didn’t get that right’, but it’ll pay dividends (apologies for pun!) moving forward. I already feel more in control again and it’s starting to pay off.
However, each to their own. The big difference between investing and gambling is investing offers you options.

DBR, I’m not arguing against any of what your saying, hence why I remain invested. When it all happens and the market wakes up to it, I’ll be back in big time. However, until that time, I’ve diversified rather than watch my money dwindle through a daily grind down. Unless there’s strong evidence to suggest an upward trend happening quickly, that simply makes investment sense. If it turns quickly, I’ll act quickly and (hopefully) have more money to invest, simple as that. Being underwater and holding, no matter what, doesn’t make your desire to see NCYT rerate any greater than mine. It could mean you make more than I do, it could mean I make more - that’s why we’re all investing, no? I’m not here to defend NCYT, neither am I here to berate the company. It’s a stock, simply a vehicle to make you and I money. It’s not achieving that at present, but may do so in the future.
I know the fundamentals and the potential, but there’s no indication why they’ll be recognised any time soon. So, in the meantime, isn’t it logical to place some of my money that’s left in shares that do show signs of immediate grown? Please don’t list the potentials, give me indicators to suggest a meaningful bounce is imminent. You can obviously see it, I can’t, hence I’m simply trying to make my money work for me rather than see it stagnate at best. Simples.

Absolutely no ‘mission’, hate rampers and derampers with similar passion. Debate is actually healthy and if a post stimulates a debate, as opposed to the usual tribal defenders and attack we see on here all the time, then happy with that.
I’m not in any way pushing fellow investors one way or the other, simply suggesting that keeping your options open and diversifying makes investing sense. As I’ve learned to my cost, having blind faith and hoping is rarely a good choice. Some will see it as too late and a long hold is the only way out of a big loss, I respect their choice. Simply pointing out there are always options.

ValJu, I did sell of the majority of my holding whilst saying nothing. I’m now seeing many people in a similar position to my recent NCYT one and have tried to start a debate in order to at least get those under water to at least look at options objectively, simple as that. The emotive response from some would suggest that they’re not looking at this objectively.
Pebble, I know the feeling, but there seems little evidence at this moment in time to suggest that the NCYT SP is going to rocket. Logic would simply suggest that alternatives should be looked at short term. As I say, I remain a LTHer, but happy that I now have a recovery plan in place that doesn’t have all it’s eggs in the NCYT basket. When I see a plan in place to take us back to where we could (and should be), I’ll simply buy back in - and, if quick enough, at a price point lower than I sold at. Some make it sound like that in some way disloyal to NCYT. What rubbish. It’s simply recognising that it’s an investment that (hopefully temporarily) has gone sour. I believe it’ll come good, but I’ve simply diversified until it does.

I respect your choice, obviously.
I don’t get the hold on if you can afford to’ argument though. Your investment value is what it is. Unless you genuinely believe that there is going to be a truly massive swing in NCYT’s fortunes very soon, then why discount alternatives in the meantime? Selling one share doesn’t bar you from re-entry once you know their future plans. Until that time, if you genuinely believe that NCYT is the best short term home for your £XXX investment, then you’re obviously quite right to leave it there. However, surely it’s just good investment practice to continually look at other short term options, no? Or have we sworn some sort of allegiance to NCYT - after all, they’ve been so good to us of late and we’re still in the dark. I’m not proposing anything to anyone, just suggesting that some might want to stop obsessing on one stock and at least look over the fence now and then. I remain a LTH, albeit at a lower level, but I don’t see NCYT alone as being my road to recovery. If you do, then I respect your decision.

Thanks Davand, a mature and intelligent contribution. Please bin me and just read what you want to hear.

DBR - ‘but logic and huge loses kept us in’ - I agree with the emotion of fear when crystallising loses, but logic?
Hindsight is a great thing, but it shows quite clearly that many LTHs were running on emotion, not logic, myself included.
Yet another lesson learnt. A hard one.

This has proven to be a hugely disappointing journey. However, I urge people to be pragmatic about this and do what is best for your own portfolio.
I have been a holder for two years and could have been a wealthy man if I’d sold out at near £12. I was greedy, totally my fault. Thankfully, I sold of 50% on the long slide down at ever decreasing profit. The other 50% I held on to, foolishly, like it was some badge of honour to be a suffering LTHer.
Three weeks ago, I looked at what was left of that 50% and asked myself some very straightforward questions.
Was NCYT likely to turn itself around short term and recoup my substantial loses? No.
Was NCYT likely to drop further, given forecast diminishing Covid revenues, lack of communication and severe negative sentiment? Yes.
Were there other recovery stocks out there that were likely to give me a better short/medium term return than NCYT? Yes.
Simple decision was to reduce my remaining 50% by 80% and reinvest. I’ve left some in NCYT and plan to return once I see their post Covid plan, but I’m glad I snapped myself out of the blind faith and support of a share that was haemorrhaging me money. I owed NCYT nothing, at the end of the day it’s just a stock.
The result thus far is that I’ve already increased my reinvested funds by 25%, whilst NCYT has continued to dive. If NCYT’s situation changed overnight, I could easily return and ride a rise, but in the meantime it simply doesn’t look likely.
I know some will write off my comments as deramping, but it simply isn’t intended that way. All I’m highlighting is that all investments should be looked at objectively, not in any other way. Being the most stoic, honourable, loyal LTDi will simply reduce your capital. At the very least, continually ask yourself hard questions and make hard decisions to protect your money.
Genuine good luck to all holders.

Loving the way this is looking.
A nice steady rise on strong volume is what I’m hoping for. Let’s hope we avoid peaks and troughs and keep the 10% chasers at bay.
A long play for me, and a very positive one too.
GLA

This is a very simple one, surely?
Just buy/hold and wait.....