Member Info for raxfactor

Hi Contango,
You are having a laugh with your comments right?
Below is a summary of the mineral sands market and you are singing the praise of our management?

Mineral Sands Pricing

Mineral sands prices have remained buoyant as a result of both supply and demand issues.

Supply has been significantly impacted by closures to Rio Tinto's Richards Bay mine, which accounts for around 17 per cent of the world's titanium feedstocks and 13 per cent of zircon.

Market prices for ilmenite and rutile have been rising steadily and recently reached seven-year highs in response to real demand for final products from the significant economic growth globally following the COVID-19 economic contractions and extra demand for high-grade feedstock amid constrained supply in China and Africa. Zircon prices were at three-year highs which was as a result of improved ceramics production in Asia and Europe. The benchmark Zircon price effective 1 July 2021 was $US1,630 per tonne, the highest price recorded since 2014.

Facts are facts our management are **** poor.

Another solid update from PTAL demonstrating again that they deliver on what they say they will, including to keep production going when they have restricted control over how to get their oil to market very impressive.
If I include how they go about assisting to help solve the issues they have no control over a very pro active management team, well done guys in keeping the forward momentum going, it would of been very easy to do nothing and let things stall.

Hi oken,
So have I got this right they reduced the mcap by $80m with tender offer by cancellation of the shares, only the share price didn't respond by increasing by the appropriate amount to balance this action.
Hence with this misplaced folly overall the sp gained 10% in a buoyant market.
Money thrown away, eps will look great who could benefit from that?

Hi chique,
This price rise has almost stopped you in your tracks, although if some of those options find there way into the market you will probably have some joy.
IMO THX is only just becoming known about, as more investors do their research I am sure more gold buffs will join for the ride.
Segun does come across well in the interviews I have seen on YouTube, the company presentation is a must read for any other prospective investors.
Thanks to ISA-investor as well for informative posts.

Very apt that this video on PGMs history and outlook 2022/23 and beyond to be aired today, you can also register for a live event hosted by the interviewee on Jan 25th. if that takes your fancy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-JGJK4y7j3M

Took a small position here recently after the recent RNS outlining production is up and running, compelling AISC if it can be maintained around that level.
Good to see some market response today after nothing on the day of the RNS which I thought was odd.

The guidance for next year is more or less the same as the year just gone with slight differences here and there, the ELIX project has cropped up just at the right time as electricity prices are spiking all across Europe hopefully this will have a positive impact on production if we are producing copper onsite rather than shipping concentrate.
Plenty of expansion possibilities are being advanced, which will eventually get passed after we have convinced the green lobby we won't wreck the countryside and its good for the community jobs wise, however these things take time.
Steady as she goes.

The numbers are what was expected, not sure the share buy back was the best use of of over $80m we could of been debt free, still it is what it is.
The company is well placed with demand for its products in the future, although they are currently having issues with increased slimes levels and covid both which hopefully will be overcome, interestingly shipments will be lower than production due the dry docking of the transshipment vessel reducing shipping capacity.
Good to see the RUPS/MSP project up for commissioning in Q1.
All in all we seem to be set up for a very productive year, with increases in costs hopefully outweighed by increased prices.

Great update from THS today, nicely summed up by Visitor and thanks to Tharisa for their reply.
What more can a company do? with a market response of indifference to expansion plans completed partly commissioned, and on track with further growth in the pipe line which the CEO says is a world class asset.

Excellent news the building of this new plant to extract further value from ore, and although this seems to be a new process its looks as though ATYM have been involved as an interested party for some time.
If it turns out to be as successful as anticipated then further extensions can be added in parallel.

Alberto Lavandeira, CEO commented

"The E-LIX System offers Atalaya a unique opportunity to unlock significant value from its portfolio of deposits that contain complex polymetallic mineralisation. Atalaya has worked together with Lain Technologies for many years in order to test, refine and demonstrate the E-LIX process, providing the Company with confidence in its potential. In addition to enhancing recoveries, E-LIX will eliminate penalties associated with deleterious elements and reduce the costs of transportation and energy, thereby improving the Company's carbon footprint."

I am sure many will have noticed Rh price waking from its slumber now at $14800 jmat its highest since the price slump in mid September last year, this rise would coincide with a couple of reports suggesting the chip shortage although not over is easing.
Hopefully the trend will continue with the other PGMs gaining some momentum as well, time will tell if this move is sustainable or not.

Excellent summary MT much appreciated.

Manolo Zuniga, CEO: “We’re very pleased at the progress made at Pump Station 5 & the demonstration of trust and goodwill shown by the communities. I thank our team for their dedication and perseverance over the past 4 years enabling PTAL to achieve our original 20k bopd goal.”

Excellent update operationally on the the money past the 20k bpd as they stated in guidance, so delivering on that front.
Brazil export route looks to be the route of choice for now, decreasing risk, which given our history is logical.
The pressure is now on the government to make good on their promises, the refinery needs Ptals oil and its not much good to them if its going to Brazil.

Hi sag,
A compete waste of £61.8m if any fund or investor wanted out we have a stock exchange set up for that purpose buying and selling of shares.
All this action does is what? I can't see any benefit so EPS will rise what good is that to me, personally i feel this is another example of bod doing what they want just because they can.
Rich,
Can't agree with your statement, if a company is profitable and is seen to be a cash machine investors will follow regardless of where it is located, oil companies in Iraq and gold miners in Zimbabwe have loyal followers who made more than a Bob or two.
KMR seem to set themselves in a favourable position, the hard part, everything lined up for explosive growth then something happens, either promising cash flow will generate enough for all capex no loans required, then backtrack, generate the cash then this debacle.

Hi Mike below is how I arrived at 28/29 eps
First off I ref p22 from the last results to calc AISCs and what discount THS pay to the quoted basket price, for both PGMs & Chrome.
PGM cost of sales $205m
PGM production 157.8k oz, 205÷157.8 = $1299 (AISC)
Discount to basket price THS state $3074 basket price
PGM revenue $353.4m, PGM production 157.8k oz. 353.4 ÷ 157.8 = $2239
2239 ÷ 3073 = 0.728 of basket price THS achieve.
To calc outcomes from basket $2400, 165k oz production.
2400 × 0.728 = 1747.2 - 1298 = 448.3 × 165k = $73.9m
Chrome
Chrome cost of sales $147.1m
Chrome production 1506kt, 147.1 ÷ 1506 = $97.67 (AISC)
Discount to chrome price, THS state $154/t chrome price
Chrome revenue $203.8m, chrome prod. 1506kt, 203.8 ÷ 1506 = $135.3/t price achieved.
135.3 - 97.67 = $37.63/t
To calc outcomes for 1750kt
1.75m x 37.63 = $65.85m
Total ebitda 73.9 + 65.85 = $139.54m x 0.75(tax) × 0.74(BEE) = $77.56m ÷ 271m shares
28.6cents eps

The upcoming talks between the indigenous protesters and government is massif for all concerned, the government with their investment in the oil refinery due to complete in April 2022 from memory, which would be worthless without oil and needless to say damaging for Peru, and the protesters who I would of thought want a resolution rather than a continuation of the current situation.
Then we have PTAL wedged between the two, who it must be said have played a blinder both operationally and diplomacy wise during the unrest, the Brazil export route working two ways, mitigating production losses, but also giving the Peruvian government a headache as they are no longer the only recipient in town.
Intriguing times, if the talks are successful PTAL sp will rocket if not consolidation at a lower price as production is restricted probable.
So its a bit of a gamble at present the company being very successful with everything they touch of late, and the talks, hopefully the government have a good persuasive negotiator to offer a deal that can't be refused.

Hi guys,
Based on the assumptions I have run my calcs and come up with PAT $76m with eps of 28 cents so I think that makes me closer to feynzz than Mike.
By the way I no Einstein, so like you I would be interested in other opinions.
Hopefully as we move into next year the chip shortage will ease, so demand increases for PGMs to push prices higher, more bulk carriers make their way into shipping to stabilise those rates for buyers and generally demand turn out better than it is right now.
Even though, with these assumed figures compared to FY 2020 we are doing much better, its very hard to compare future expectations with the year now closing which was incredible.
THS is not standing still and through increased output is managing to offset lower prices, with Zimbabwe waiting in the wings.

Decent update generally all is going to plan, we know about the restricted production and mid January is not far away to gain full flow.
No mention of the oncoming windfall in January, it will interesting when they do RNS it and those who don't know about will be thinking were did that come from.
It seems no matter what the bod do they can't please all the sh all the time even with a doubling of the sp and potentially more to come.
My only concern is the ageing infrastructure which hopefully will stay intact allowing production to continue at full flow, unforeseen maintenance is the last thing we need to raise its head and throttle back supply when demand is at a high.

With coal prices as high as they are I am amazed they are still profitable, in my view excellent results under the circumstances with net debt reduced again, the profit warning should not be a surprise.
One to watch and pile in if coal prices come back down to more reasonable levels over the next six months or so.