Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I believe in 2021 they were extremely close to be able to confirm a discovery but the busted drill string and associated issues meant they couldn't get the kit down the holes to get a sample. So if you believe that is correct all they have to do is drill a hole in an area where there are known helium seeps and shows, put the testing kit and sampler down the hole and capture some helium. That would satisfy the discovery. We already know to confirm commerciality they will need to do a separate appraisal of the well which is likely the second stage. However going back to the the sample taken as part of this upcoming drill all we have to do is capture some helium (if not found immediately on the first go they can have as many goes at taking more samples down the hole as they like essentially with the necessary tools). The larger diameter hole and bigger kit reduces the drilling risk of not being able to achieve this from an operational perspective. Last time they had a tiny 3 inch hole diameter using the wrong rig, this time we have a massive O&G rig and a much bigger 8inch diameter hole . Therefore a discovery should be odds on simply because they had helium shows before but lacked the sample to confirm a discovery. This time they get a sample and bingo. That sample will also be graded by any lab analysis and we know that for it to be economical to sell to the market we need something like 0.1-0.2% helium. For me this is a pretty simple way of understanding what needs to be done to = Discovery.
Confirm a discovery the SP rockets and you raise a little then or don't and do a JV with a major who stumps up some cash. Management indicated in the recent shareholder discussions this was their preference and I hope they reiterate this on Weds as I believe this is holding the SP back now. Obviously there are risks but the upside vs down side here for me is very attractive as the areas isn't a completely unknown simply because they have been here before. Why come back here if last time was a complete failure? You wouldn't.
I do think they can drill a hole to 1200m as this time they have the right kit and I think they can get a sample as a result. I'm here for the discovery.
Next steps, Spud, declare a discovery which is a huge de-risking event then raise a couple of million to do appraisal and no one will care as everyone makes money. Funded for the drill, saved money by buying a rig and as per Cocobeans there isn't the headroom to issue shares without an EGM. Quite straight forward really.
Exactly WeareGroot the dates are smoke and mirrors not reality. HR Box ticking! For someone of that calibre they are unlikely to be sat on the sofa doing nothing and available at short notice. All we are seeing is the next piece of the puzzle slotting into place.
13.30 is the 200 EMA so any close above that and we are moving up. In sight now.
I suspect the application deadline and expected start date are deliberately close together. IF and it is an IF they already have someone for the role this 1 month gap could be the minimum time the role needs to be advertised from an HR requirements point of view. Notice periods for these roles are usually much longer so I suspect this is box ticking exercise. I also don't think you would just start looking now for such a senior role when they have known for months what they have. An interesting hire all the same
Icecool and this is one of the key outcomes of AVA6000 P1A to date. Originally it was expected to be 4 cohorts of 3 patients each and take about a year. The fact they will have dosed over 30 already and had data from each is massive. This gives them so many options about P1b design with the aim of expediting the timelines to FDA approval and sales. Obvious additional benefits, no MTD found yet, MOA of Precision confirmed in Jan, Second prodrug initiated a long time ago now, no disease progression confirmed for some patients prior to the AGM. What's next? PFS and Efficacy info hopefully.
I think it is worth highlighting that last night Skittish put up more excellent analysis of satellite pictures of the Tai sites. Look back to 6.30 pm and there are multiple posts with a huge amount of detail. No smoke without fire and if they are already preparing for bigger things that is very exciting. I recommend anyone looking at posts today to start right there. Thanks again Skittish for sharing much appreciated.
Good work skittish let's hope that is exactly what is going on. One factor to consider re the facility is that doing ground works before any wet season later in the year would be much easier and more efficient. If they are indeed doing this now it expedites timelines to production post the drilling if successful. When are you going to the airport to fly there and confirm all this? ;)
Things are just warming up here. Confidence returns as soon at that MDA lands which has been weighing down on the SP for too long. Beyond that Myles post just now highlighting the links to the US DoD and the Hypromag possibilities should not be underestimated. Big things await.
Also it is worth remembering patients in P1b can be dosed at the same time. Its obviously very unlikely all required patients for P1B are lined up and dosed on day one but the reality is with 20 sites open and the current restrictions of P1A of waiting until the first patient observation period is complete before dosing patient 2 removed they can make much faster progress. The time limiting factor is determined by the cycles needed for data collection. 18 is the current guide. However they will know after 3/4 cycles (confirmed by management at the AGM) if a patient gets benefit from AVA6000 or not. It is that element once a statistically relevant number of patients have been dosed that will allow them to communicate to the market during P1B any efficacy signals. Eliot said at the AGM C5 was showing early signs of toxicity so we can't be far from a MTD C6/7. There will inevitably be a trade off balancing a higher dose with more side effects vs Efficacy benefit against using a lower dose with little side effects and efficacy benefit for patients. Given more Dox is getting to the tumour I expect the latter will be the preferred option my that's just my opinion.
Correct dai2belts when I said saved its opportunity cost here isn't it. No large transit costs etc which means we didn't way away £1m we would have done for leasing a rig and its shipping costs. I think people ask about the cost of the rig to create doubt but it's a big win and I don't personally care about the cost as it means future drill holes will be much cheaper and expedite timelines to drill them.
Dai2belts - Meetings with management last week. We saved £1m in costs vs leasing and transporting etc and it will be the most economical way of drilling going forward and we are in control. Just like a baby we just have to feed it and wipe its ass. I can only assume the rig cost keep coming up for discussion as part of FUD.