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Forrest there are exceptions and Keith is usually objective but you only have to look at the rubbish this am which is what I was essentially referencing. All you have to think about is if someone was a genuine holder, and given many are underwater at these levels why would you take to the keyboard to say negative things that are pure speculation and not based on fact that is likely to harm your investment? It is self harming sowing FUD because people can't be patient and wait for an RNS. It comes when it comes. I would rather they got to TD safely and then RNS'd. All for debate but I don't think it's a coincidence negative headers are deployed, regurgitated and the FUD starts from 'experts'.
I would seriously question any 'expert' comments on here that are overly negative and unsubstantiated as we approach TD and await an RNS. Ask your self this how would they know what is going on (regardless of prior experience elsewhere round the world) and what is their agenda? Are you honestly going to let a complete stranger influence your investment decisions! NO!
PL75 I'm aware of Q4 being the timeline that is why I said 'commit to a date'. The reason I said that is because when he does give us a date that becomes the focus and volumes should pick up in anticipation. What we don't want is a date mid Dec onwards when the City is quiet and people are away on holidays etc etc. End of Nov first week in Dec would be my preference especially as it isn't dependent on C7 completion which also means it can come sooner than that potentially. Maximum impact will be their plan.
RMFATGB / JT also worth remembering the IC50 numbers we saw presented at the AGM for the earlier cohorts. Some of these were way above the levels needed to kill cells across multiple indications. I wonder what these numbers looked like for C5, C6 and C7 at even higher doses. I guess we will soon see. Looking forward to AS committing to a date for the data readout.
A great updated presentation on first pass. Lots of detail.
MDA position 'Mine Development Agreement (MDA) currently being finalised' let's get that over the line asap. Lots of fingers in lots of pies so an exciting time ahead.
JT great posts as always. FYI the next Oncology conference is next week...ESMO in Madrid 20-24th Oct. Another opportunity perhaps. I agree the JPM one is huge. There is also the Jeffries Healthcare conference in London on the 14-16th Nov = Optionality.
Crucially Takeda have lost Velcade sales revenue each quarter since coming off patent last year and the impact of generic competition. A good time for Takeda to secure 3996 license you would think to offer subject to trials and approvals a patented version without the side effects! Revenue and patent problem solved.
CJ62 I agree I believe there is a restriction on forward selling for them however that doesn't mean they can't sell an equivalent amount of a long position they already have now does it. Nothing wrong with that. This HCI stuff is all smoke and mirrors though as no one knows the facts and we know this has been heavily traded likely leading to things being exaggerated. Hopefully that starts to change now C7 has been confirmed as the last cohort for P1a and we expect other news.
Noobinvestor I think it's important to break down your question into Pre/Cision and AVA6000.
Firstly we had confirmation Pre/Cision the delivery platform works in humans earlier in the year. That was reconfirmed in the last RNS with AS stating the following 'The pre|CISIONTM platform is doing exactly what it was designed to do - target the release of active chemotherapy to the tumour tissue, sparing healthy tissues and improving the safety and tolerability of the drug whilst delivering potentially superior efficacy.' Therefore you can bind a vast number of toxic drugs to this platform and license it to generate revenue. Therefore this statement proves the tech works and has overcome the last clinical hurdle and is ready to be commercialised IMO.
Secondly AVA6000 all these patients to date are end of life (They won't be in the 2 weekly dosing trial or P2). The fact they have seen efficacy in a phase1a safety and tolerability trial means they have accelerated the trial and time to market that is huge news. As they have seen 'significant response in a patient' this is incredible as they were facing certain death. Tumour shrinkage at least buys you more time and hopefully they see even better outcomes like a complete response. Failing now seems unlikely in my opinion as it is simply has to better the SOC for STS already. Dox sets a low bar which AVA6000 will redefine and has done by removing cardio toxicity already which kills your heart. They still have no cardio toxicity at multiples of the usual Dox dose and a clinician couldn't tell if a patient had been dosed. Chemo patients are usually clearly sick as hell.
Beyond not finding an MTD over 6 cohorts which is a positive in my opinion but I appreciate the timelines for 1a have increased by over a year but patient data gone up 3 fold the outcomes of the trial to date have been way better than expectations. Efficacy was not expected that has now been confirmed at the first stage of the trial. This has been derisked hugely but DYOR
A point often over looked but I hope we see get more data on soon. We know in cohorts 1-4 all but one patient had tumour types that are NOT usually treated with Dox as this is a safety and tolerability trial hence their use. We know that MULTIPLE patients from earlier cohorts remain on drug as their disease has not progressed. This is incredible as at least 1 patient must be from that group. If they can demonstrate Dox at higher doses with no side effects can now be effective on previously unsuitable tumour types this is epic. This opens new markets and sales opportunities subject to more data and trials of course. But if I was that end of life person knowing it probably won't do anything even before a first dose but you have clinical benefit that is as close to a miracle at the right time isn't it? More time with your family etc. What heroes these patients are under awful circumstances. This next chapter is very exciting indeed.
GMCC - P1B in the US will definitely be using these scans. Dr Tap already familiar with this as are other US sites. Confirmed at the AGM. There was a supply issue in the UK for a site at the time but TBC on whether this is now resolved or not.
Washerupper tell us this. What is the financial cost of a 'bespoke to patient' vaccine like that? It's going to be horrendous certainly initially. AVA6000 chemo cost = low vs ADCs and likely any personalised jab for quite sometime.
Exactly bein - likely circa triple the dozen originally envisaged for P1a based on 4 cohorts with 3 patients in each. All that data and time that has passed has completely changed the landscape and hopefully the options for the next phase. US sites originally planned for P1B have been treating patients for months as well. Data = deals and inflection points
Skittish thanks for your analysis as always. Re seeps of 10.2%. In your opinion why would they not drill precisely where the seeps are found of that concentration and instead a distance away? The only rationale to that imo would be the the traps would be more advantageous further away meaning more helium is stored under these traps? Is that your understanding as well? Thanks
Given the placements were at 5p and then 6p. To be able to buy in at these current levels for a multi well drill campaign for Helium which is worth more than 50/100 times the value of natural gas (dependent on pricing) this is a good risk vs reward opportunity. Roll on spud