Member Info for Rambo23

This significance of this should not be ignored. Keywords 'ANY' and 'ACTIVE'

'Corrib South has always been a compelling potential addition to the Corrib infrastructure and additionally offers a faster track route to gas storage and energy affordability than ANY other option currently available to Ireland.'

It therefore makes abundant sense for us now to bring Corrib South back into our ACTIVE operations portfolio. Morocco and Atlantic Ireland are two attractive gas projects adjacent and linked to European gas infrastructure. Our immediate objective is to ensure that the wider industry takes notice of our strategic position with relation to potentially material gas assets."

Sounds like the agent is going to be busy here!

No problem Lancygeo

The best thing PG could do right now is carry on as usual....BAU it is.

Today he funds a plethora of positive work items and for many of these brings them forward all at once = value creation.

He secures his balance sheet which is a necessity to ensure that when a deal is announced there are no liquidity issues before a deal completes which could be months (you don't want an emergency placing mid that process do you it only weakens your position). For example imagine the oil price halving (not likely but making a point) and your revenues half at the same time.

Majors coming in for a part divestment or full takeover will want to see a programme of work which is funded properly. Remember for Morocco they are on a timeline to achieve the drilling, testing of mou6 which is needed for the EC and CNG effort etc

The fact that he stated ‘Third party technical and legal due diligence is being completed.' is telling. Only recently he told us about the back costs likely part of a deal. It won't be long until this breaks cover. AGM notice due in the coming weeks....alignment possible here.

To me this looks like the last dilutive event before material deals break cover. The upside this sure footing gives him is massive and easily outweighs being in a weak negotiating position in the weeks ahead. With Ireland in play now perhaps PG is not only considering a full TO to extract maximum value across the portfolio now. Big players and big money only.

This placing crucially also proves he has funding options and isn't prepared to wait for you. He will move first and take control.

This is a lifetimes work for PG he gets one shot at this so if he is happy with a 10% dilution it is all for the bigger picture.

What is telling is that there is no mention still of mou6 testing, it is not on the funding list today....I don't think PRD will be doing it and the lead time for the explosives is 4-5 months, much longer than the 90day kit lead time for everything else so you would need to have ordered already. This is another clue here as there is a finite amount of time between now and 5th Nov and you don't drill mou6 not to test it..... I suspect this all becomes clear when the deal lands.

People should consider what the circa 10% dilution looks like when at the same time Corrib South P50 424BCF asset that has just come back in play.....

PG has real skin in the game here and is not diluting 10% for a menial gain here. When this plays out we will all understand why.

No one likes a placing but the activities detailed are all value accretive. These funds give PG ultimate flexibility and only ratchet up the pressure on the interested parties who will likely have to pay more the longer they wait. Let's not forget this process of getting to this stage has been years so relationships are already there.

For me this does not detract from a TO of the assets and or company. The fact that Ireland is in play now is a huge bonus. It is another massive carrot.

I find it amusing when people moan about a placing and shares in issue but can't or won't align that with possible values on the exit here. It lacks perspective and cash in the bank is key to leverage the wider opportunities that lead to the exit. Lots to unpack in the RNS today will come back with more later.

@Rustyrat1970 makes some very key observations.

PV72 I missed all that as I have them all filtered. I suggest people do the same. If they don't pass the sniff test bin them. It's clear many will post anything other than useful discussion and that is the tell.

As you point out the back costs comment was made by PG for a reason. We find out in due course who, what and why.

Here are a few things that don't square up for me and why I think some deals are in play and the end game is this year.

1. PG - End of march stated in the interview he doesn't expect to be paying for MOU6

2. No sight of March T&T oil sales

3. No clarity on rig contracts for SC3 or MOU6

4. PG talking about buying producing assets at the same time as indicating Q3/Q4 divestment timelines.

5. MOU6 naming convention dropped

6. We are only 6 weeks from Q3 starting now

7. Gucerif license considerations.

The list goes on....

Current Bids at EMS

200k @ 4.116

Current offers

Nothing at the touch

Lots of volume this am

Magic the 16k sales were a bed and ISA as confirmed earlier by the person who did them see the post.

The lack of actual selling is telling. The bed wetters have gone, time for business.

Ibiza consider this.

Were the first oil sales numbers put out for someone else's attention? It was a material disclosure. Why haven't we seen anymore? PG said he expected a higher price for the months ahead so I don't think the numbers are worse just withheld pending commercial events.

Accounts - This is an extremely comprehensive document 150 pages and 25 pages more than last year. Again don't think just for PRD shareholders

These sorts of events which also pass as BAU are also done to enable shareholders of suitor companies to have sight of all the key information surrounding the decisions leading to commercial deals. I think we are there now and all this makes sense once deals land.

Macro picture only enhances deal value now but this changes like the wind. Imagine an oil and gas price half of where we are currently.

We wait.

Agreed Jasper.

A few considerations.

1. As for selling the board PG has already told us he expected T&T and Morocco to be divested by Q3/4. Q3 is a matter of weeks away ie disclose now deal completes in Q3...therefore PG has stated intent to sell the board already but people are not listening.

2. Ireland- PG made threats to initiate a no win no fee case a long time ago. I suspect that is in play and we have no visibility of that. I don't think it was a bluff from PG so expect action taken. Also note the Lansdowne progress. So where are we at on Ireland in reality?

3. Consider that PGs plan was always to sell everything and the conditions to enable that were by design and at the same time via some basic sequencing and timing which. After 16 months of no drilling in Morocco he has created a window (deliberately imo) to initiate a divestment process, hire and agent and assess interested parties. This window was triggered based on likely material events over MOU3 august / sept last year and again we have yet to see the outcome of the pressure tests but the plans for mou6 point to progress in this regard. PG won't go into a negotiation with a weak hand he would have drilled more to upsize the offering, but he told us he didn't need to drill or test more. This window has also enabled him to progress T&T activity including revenue generation and SC3 drilling plans. This aligns bang on to a wider plan and negotiation if you take a step back here which only benefits the full exit negotiation. T&T ITR released months ago. Morocco ITR still undisclosed likely forming the basis of a major deal = 'flexible divestment' narrative.

All this leverages multiple majors into a negotiation for multiple assets at the same time. What is the cost of losing out on a new gas basin in Morocco, key licenses in T&T to your competition?

A full takeover would not need ONYHM approval. Clearly there are moving parts here and something has to break cover soon. PG will want to make a statement and cement his legacy. I think nothing less than $1bn exit is on the cards here and could be much bigger depending on the ITR for Morocco and the number of parties interested.

Now recall PG spent much of the interview talking about assets he wants to buy! He spent very little time talking about development in Morocco. 'Hold on to your seats' whilst he told us about other possibilities. He also likely needs material cash to buy discovery producing assets in Africa. If they are not significantly larger in output of T&T why sell T&T in the first place? Material cash ie several hundred million imo means at the table with big boy assets for revenue generation and dividends. He can't commit on those deals until these ones are committed on and then funds on completion satisfy the others.

It is very clear in my mind what is happening here and the form that it plays out here varies of course but this is no longer about a GSA deal and waiting long periods of time to see

Current bids at NMS which is 200k

500k @ 4.0511

1,000,000 @ 4.0503

500k @ 4.042

Current offers:

No offers at the touch ie 4.2

We move higher soon. Looking good.

Correction current 'offer' is only 250k @ 4.18 at EMS, I typed bid again apologies.

Current bids:

500k @ 4.02

350k @ 4.0011

500k @ 3.945

500k @ 3.936

Current bids

250k @ 4.18.

They still want your shares. Took another 100k at 4.07 a few mins ago.

@tmhsdx6 even better!! Thanks for confirming that is great news. Protecting capital gains pre deal news. Wise action taken!

Rolls have the same profile hence I flagged it as many would think it is two sales. Tells are time stamps very close together and price very close. Second trade was priced higher also which is less likely for two sales of the same size and bid didn't move on that either. Thanks for engaging. Cheers.

The 2 shapes of 425k and 423k look like a roll ie sale and re buy on a T20 based on the time and price. Therefore not two legit sales as they appear on the screen.....net movement = zero. Non event basically

Current Bids at EMS

500k @ 3.995

500k @ 3.9828

350k @ 3.9827

500k @ 3.93

110k @ 3.92

Current offers

250k @ 4.0837

Evidently they want your shares still. Scraps left on the offer here at 4.08. Clear the 250k and we move higher imo. Looks strong.

We are now 51 days since the February T&T Oil Sales RNS. Emphasis on February which was in the RNS header.

I believe the primary reason we have not seen the March oil sales despite PG saying the pricing would be even more favourable is for one key reason. Corporate activity ie they can't now disclose this until whatever discussions they are having are concluded.

It makes no sense to start what appears to be monthly oil sales updates to then say nothing for 51 days despite it being a key driver for sentiment, draws attention to the progress in T&T and the upcoming snowcap well not least it confirms actual bankable numbers. It is self harming not to provide these consistently unless you are not allowed to.

Open to counters on this but why have we not seen this update which would be so straight forward and positive to provide?

Options:

1. Partial monetisation of T&T assets. Note PG's comment on Bonnase 18 recently saying he bought it for $1 but the value is circa $20,000 per barrel produced per day and that asset was on 50bopd therefore worth circa $1m. Ask why he told us this piece of info?

2. Full T&T exit - He has already told us he wants to divest this by Q3/4. We are only 7 weeks from Q3 starting and deals take time to complete post RNS notification so factor this in. ( I agree in a few months T&T value could be transformed but remember PG said majors want to buy assets with organised activity and upside opportunity. T&T and Morocco have both right now. )

You absolutely cannot rule out the buyer for Morocco might also want T&T....Exxon being a prime candidate given their existing licenses in T&T and the money committed out there, their Morocco presence is well known. PG might be talking about SC3 but what is he not talking about is the rest of the license area and what opportunity that might represent to someone else, start considering this.

Does ratcheting the deal actually mean having firm interest from majors that have interest in both T&T and Morocco assets for key and strategic reasons! Very likely if the agent has done their job. That would be the best outcome for PG imo ie have at least one party interested in both assets to leverage perhaps an ADNOC interested only in Gucerif to max the value on that.

PG will want to surprise to the upside and out of the blue. A lot of what we are told is true but also much of it is misdirection to throw us off the scent here.

One request please stop engaging the trolls it is a pointless exercise and they are deliberately trying to draw you off sensible discussion with nonsense. If you engage you are just as bad, it adds zero value and you risk turning into a green box yourself.

At some point people will realise what is going on here and it will be too late to buy at these levels. Took some more yesterday for my family.

In the accounts PG stated........ ' Executing SC-3 drilling operations are the absolute number one priority for the company in 2026'.

This is an odd statement to make imo

1. Your tier 1 asset is Gucerif , it's 8 years of delineating a new gas basin in a 4000km license area and therefore that and MOU6 should be the priority - Unless you have or are dealing on that now!

2. Gucerif value dwarfs T&T on a value basis. Even SC3 at 1000bopd = $20m in value (based on PGs own comments of $20k per 1bopd) vs 441bcf of shallow gas on an old ITR = well in excess of T&T value.

3. You could argue that anything that enables revenue generation = priority. But 1000 bopd @ $60 * 30days = $1.8m/ month before revenue share and tax

4. Points 3 & 4 are both less than the published $24.6m in back costs for Morocco so why is SC3 the 'absolute' priority?

5. The accounts also states ' This is a proven oil & gas rich region recently bought to refreshed prominence by Exxonmobil's exploration success offshore Guyana. Predator is drilling one of the biggest onshore oil wells in T&T for several years' - Why name drop Exxon here unless it is a signpost. Is SC3 a priority to enable a deal with Exxon? Is SC3 drilling a dependency for that deal or part of a wider T&T + Morocco deal for Exxon? Exxon have a lot of licenses in T&T and have interest in Morocco already = ideal suitor.

6. All this aligns to wider Q3/4 divestment timeline ambition for T&T and Gucerif....

I don't agree that at the time of the publication of the accounts that SC3 is our absolute priority unless point 1 is in play. I totally disagree for the reasons above. However there is a reason and purpose for PG to state this and it has not been given enough consideration or discussion.

The PRD shop window is full right now of assets and activities and that is by design for leverage and deals, nothing less.

Exciting times shareholders! DYOR

Madman a further thought......Any positive news also likely brings an SP re-rate and the cheap warrants into play so that is another option. All this means the ball is in PGs court to deal or crack on himself and the funding options are there led by T&T revenues every month going forward.....

Majors have a choice here, deal now or don't deal now and potentially pay a lot more for less of the opportunity (this might be the case if ONHYM increased their stake and or a GSA deal with a domestic player is agreed by PRD before a major comes in). The Agents job is to facilitate divestment nothing less.

Current Bids

350k @ 4.025

500k @ 3.9653

500k @ 3.93

250k @ 3.9267

110k @ 3.92

Current offers:

250k @ 4.084

They want your shares and not much left offered at EMS. Bodes well.