Member Info for Rambo23

Agreed Sandy which is why I think we see a deal now so they can meet the requirements of the license by 5th Nov and working backwards from there the EC application has to be in my 5th August and working back from there mou6 lead time is 90 days for kit etc. We are currently 97 days from the 27th July. Something has to break cover imminently. Any deal would also need time to close.

Volume has picked up

Masterfly my own view is we have moved on from that deal Why?

1. I'm not sure you need a tier 1 agent for that type of deal

2. Talk of farm out off the table last year on the back of MOU3 testing

3. It talks of 'partnering' yet PG has been going on about divestments for months now. Restated in the recent interview for Q3/4 and some crystalising now!

4. That option could be factually possible but deliberately placed to get the attention of suitors. Gorilla dust so to speak if you are actually trying to sell the farm/ most of your stake.

5. Would a CNG deal provide the funds to return some to shareholders and buy assets PG has mentioned? Perhaps not

6. A CNG deal surely would have been easier to strike before now and not taken so long vs a bigger one.

7. Does the CNG deal make PG smile and be 'very very pleased' in the interview? Not so sure I think he means BIG deals are his ambition to give equity away.

We will find out soon and their way the deal will be material to the future of this company.

PG isn't here for small deals and I believe he will only do big ones. He could easily fund mou6 himself but he is choosing not to. He is proud of the negotiations he has been involved with historically and very happy to keep talking about them in size and scope and even ones that didn't complete for other reasons. They are important references for us and suitors about what he is capable of. He understands the value of what he has here in this Gucerif asset and no doubt can prove and substantiate that to large interested parties who want it but will have to cough up cash to get it.

You don't hire an agent to do a small deal you do it to land big ones under competitive pressure that they create to leverage the outcomes. There are no prizes for second place aka losing an opportunity for the rights to a potential super basin at a time of heightened global energy security.

It is cheque book time when considering the moves taken in the last 6 months and the time pressure to peform activities before the 5th Nov. All the while stating things like you have done the drilling you need and there is no dependency on achieving flow to ink deals etc.

Not so sure looked like a worked buy from yesterday and publication delayed to today. Nothing unusual there. Bid has also moved up today despite these larger trades. Bid moving up is positive and spread is narrower than the last few days.

We are on the cusp of news from multiple fronts....On the 23rd march we got T&T flow numbers, do we get these in 2 days time? Accounts due between now and end of next week and the deal news which is the main event. SP is a bargain at these levels and still at the placing price! The current price is not pricing in any deal news at these levels but it will soon do so.

Good buying this am already. Based on what we already know PG is expected to unveil the outcome of his negotiating skills in the days ahead. The last 4-5 years of work in Gucerif will have prepared him for those discussions. He won't be easy to deal with and will play hardball.

Divestment discussions started 6 months ago and an agent was hired I can't see that happening for a GSA deal. His desire to have divested Morocco and T&T by Q3/4 is the timetable. Something was crystallising now in the interview a few weeks ago. What? I bet Morocco in some form and now the final details being agreed with ONHYM and suitor then we will be told.

Looking forward to how this plays out and the upside is significant. Something has to pay for all the new assets PG has his eyes on. Took more this am.

Peel bidding 2.5m at 3.20

Another 750k bid between 3.2004 and 3.3025

Just over 1m offered between 3.40 and 3.487

Insightful thanks @Footandmouth That all makes sense and you make a very good point about if PG was not trying to get retained interest it would look negative. I agree. Equally he leverages that for a bigger clean exit and agree that needs to be at a premium if no equity retained. So the key question really is what does the ITR look like and how much can PG leverage right now on the scale of big to small deals? Something material changed in October time and I think that relates to the connectivity and the impact on scale here.

PG spent very little time talking about the future of Gucerif in the interview which just felt strange to me when he was chipping about other assets he can buy. He will want to over deliver here make no mistake he will aim big and play hard ball. Took some more this am.

@Footandmouth just to clarify 'Just because £1b gives £1 pound for share in what way is that rational valuation ?' My refs (assuming your comment is on the back of my own) to £1 were not trying to be a rationale valuation based on detailed analysis. It was however highlighting PG's previous reference to £1 whether correctly interpreted or not it was a number he picked out, why? (It may have been totally irrelevant or it was more significant)

With the filly diluted equity position it just so happens £1 broadly aligns to £1bn. Obviously that is not how we would expect them to value any deal I do think £1bn or more is significant for optics and puts any deal into the 'Big category' for almost anyone and PG wants a BIG deal. As I pointed out in the same post as we have not seen the latest ITR so it is hard to know what the latest view is and why I did not provide a detailed view on the valuation outcome. I think PG is willing to deal and deal big otherwise why bother boxing your self in with divestment comms 6 months ago, again more recently commit to by Q3/4 and hire an agent all this time.

A Big Gucerif deal now which completes in a few months and then a T&T exit in Q3/4 sticks to his stated timetable. In parallel a Gucerif deal now means in parallel he can commit on new asset deals which then complete post Gucerif deal and before T&T exit. That is how I see it with the details and moving parts allowing multiple permutations of these events.

What is your view on PGs minimum exit price and why? what do you think he deals on near term?

Only 98 days now until the 27th July the last week in July where MOU6 drilling is expected to commence by.

@donalb you asked about why I think selling Gucerif in one go without knowing it's full potential value. It has taken years to get to this point arguably far too long. To answer your question in such a vast license area will take many years, cost a lot of money and will be on someone else's timeline.

I fully accept there are all sorts of deal structures that could be done and Keiths excellent posts on this provide alternative examples. I will explain why I think a full divestment or as close to that is likely imo. PG stated 6 months ago he was preparing to divest Gucerif and recently confirmed that again and included Gucerif & T&T by Q3/4 this year. How does a 2 stage exit on Gucerif align to that timetable when the only planned activity we are aware of is mou6. It is possible that this well is drilled from the same mou3 pad as per PG so the logs should align perfectly therefore what significant deal info is gained from what shallow drill? Testing takes how long when considering lead time on testing kit is significant? PG has not made any refs to testing mou6 that I have heard. He stated flowing gas is not a dependency for a deal which answers a long standing question for shareholders in this regard as to his strategy. He hired an agent 6 months ago for a divestment. I don't think that means you give anything other than the majority or all of your equity away as part of that divestment and his farm out refs also stopped circa October as something material changed. The macro picture is favourable for a deal now but what about 6 months time? What is the optimal location for drilling the deeper plays? If mou3/ mou6 is that location then it would make sense to go after that and not waste a location just on the shallow gas. Is that why we saw the ref in the RNS about the deeper optionality?

PG will have a minimum number to walk away and if that can be met then he walks. The larger amount of cash he can get now would allow him to buy material producing assets that generate revenue now. This means no waiting on Gucerif development which takes years. I'm not as nostalgic about the development that others are. I see that is possible but it takes far too much time and that is a limiting factor now. What's the impact on the company structure, tax breaks etc for carving up the equity in Gucerif when a major will want as much as possible. ONHYM might want more also.

He has previously spoken about to secure big deals certain things need to happen and that includes leaving running room and planned activities on the table for the buyer. We have that right now. He is not a developer but an explorer and his job is largely done. The idea that PRD retain equity to see the future development on someone else's timeline and strategy is possible but they concede control and are still exposed to the risks. Looking forward to seeing what plays out

Colon my starting number is not based on a complex calculation which requires other factors. I just think that’s the minimum for PG to consider IF Mou3 and ITR are very bullish. There is so much we don’t know.

PG did however ref £1 sometime last year. Don’t recall the context but it came out of his mouth and that is circa £1bn.

Absolutely could be way more. PG spoke of pitching big deals and I believe he will. A GSA is likely but the gorilla dust imo hiding the true negotiations.

For me the stub element here makes it all less clean. Honestly how quickly is the future development? How long before any future revenue for the stub equity?

A bigger payment to walk away now and then allow him to buy producing assets now might be a better option. That means activities are in PGs control.

Gucerif is a girlfriend not your wife if you are willing to trade in. It’s business. Move on.

25. was full exit now for nothing less than £1bn. This then allows distribution to shareholders and purchase of other assets likely to deliberately provide ongoing dividends. No more exploration in new jurisdictions which take years etc

PG Legacy secured!

@Footandmouth I'm in the full exit camp. This also makes some assumptions in relations to MOU3 and the ITR which we have not yet seen. IF mou3 data is positive and broadly all the ITR numbers are revised up that positions PG nicely for a full sale.

In no particular order

1. 6 months ago and post mou3 testing PG moved away from a all the talk of a farm out ( I believe as their findings were hugely positive)

2. We know he has been delineating a basin as he knows that is the path to maximum exit. Not drilling, testing and flowing one well at a time

3. 6 months ago he was crystal clear the path to divestment in Morocco was being initiated

4. 6 months ago he hired a tier one agent who we now know are plugged in with all the key players

5. You don't need an agent for a GSA with a possible domestic player

6. A GSA likely complicates the exit to a major

7. We now know that the deeper gas optionality for mou6 is there but again means it is more complicated for multiple parties and deals.

8. A GSA and or other deals means others are involved in what happens next ie a natural transfer of control and influence

9. If the ITR and mou3 is very positive the overpressuried gas likely removes the dependency on drilling and or testing mou6.

10. Mou6 is now no longer being referenced as the naming convention possibly implying the transition is underway

11. In the recent interview PG stated crystallisation was already underway

12. Last week of July is a firm date for the latest time they can do that drill likely linked to EC august date as per Keith

13. How much more incremental drilling and testing is needed? It takes circa 6 plus months for PRD to drill and test as resource constrained

14. Macro pic hugely favourable for a full exit in a benign region right now he couldn't ask for a better time

15. In the interview he said he doesn't expect to pay for mou6

16. As ONYHM have 25% and might want to up that it means with a major wanting as much as possible would you really want PRD hanging about for 5-10%?

17. The trade off to 16 is a big money exit

18. The sort of numbers here are rounding errors vs the running room in a 4000km license area

19. Pipeline 2.5km away the bonus

20. Most of the management team are not getting any younger

21. For PG this is personal. Money allows him to stick 2 fingers to the haters but a deal achieves his legacy which might be the discovery of a super basin which is arguably more important to him. The longer that he waits to sell up the more time he spends in sniper ally. Imagine dying before you did the deal of a lifetime.

22. He has said multiple times it is important to leave upside on the table for the buyers.

23. In the interview PG spent very little time talking about Gucerif but did tell you about his shopping list of assets. Crucially the African ones were 'discovery producing assets'. His expertise are in exploration. Also any assets he buys next are likely meaningful

24. PG playing poker

25. E

That 711k paid 3.52 over the offer of 3.4 for size!!

2m being bid at 3.1 another 550k between 3.1and 3.211

One MM is bidding 1.25m at 3.124

Another is bidding 3.5m at 3.02

A total of 5.5m being bid from 3-3.351 right now! All you need to know.

House broker 500k offered at 3.7p

@middleeastmoney ignore the down 3.5% it is a distraction and what some want you to see. It is only showing that as the UT close last night was 3.42 for less than 18k shares! (always check this for your sanity as it is the first clue) This can be easily organised so the following day as stock is marked up or down. Down in this case. With the 13% current spread (second clue) this is why it is showing the 3.5% down. It has nothing to do with today's transactions that are taking place within the spread based on the RSP quotes which are the real bid and offer numbers.

Currently there is circa 700k bid between 3.32 and 3.3498.

On offer there is 850k between 3.45 and 3.49.

It would not surprise me if more volume arrived before the close in hope of news next week. We are in the news window now on multiple fronts and to establish who is the party behind the mou6 drilling campaign. Either way we are a day closer to news.

Also don't forget we got an oil sales RNS on the 23rd of March and PG stated we should get more this month. If he sticks to the 23rd that is next week also.

Possible news items next week. Order = any

1. Accounts

2. T&T oil sales numbers for the last month

3. Commercial news for Morocco.

Green lights all the way

Very likely JH we have seen these clips being printed regularly for weeks now. Most certainly accumulation going on. Tickets for size have not been offered and worked orders the likely best way this is why the price of the execution is not necessarily relevant to yesterday's action. The large spread is there to help work these orders. Roll on the news now

First task this am.

Eurochamps - filtered

Gudin - filtered

Why do people bother to engage the nonsense and the bickering just filter and ignore them. Woeful lack of useful content from so many.

Not sure I agree JH.A worked buy above the VWAP at the time and didn’t knock the bid. We have seen decent clips going through for weeks and the wide spread is only helping disguise any accumulation pre news. If it was a sale then the bids are there as per my other msg for size. Expecting us to move higher in the days ahead. Fomo Friday.

Logically with the window for drilling mou6 + the 90 lead time we are in the news window now for clarity on their plans.

Absolutely Middleeastmoney. Currently we have these MMs on the bid

SING - 500k @ 3.332

SCAP - 338k @ 3.33

WINS - 200k @ 3.32

PEEL - 1m @ 3.25

Total on the offer about 800k between 3.46 and 3.47.

This bodes well and that earlier 2m is def a worked buy. They want your stock so make them move the bid up and don't sell. Wide spread currently only aids their business.